FAKENHAM – JANUARY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: Meeting abandoned
Monday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (1.25): 2 (Hurricane Rita), 10 (Yourholidayisover) & 6 (Dizzey Heights)
Leg 2 (1.55): 5 (Oscar Star) & 2 (Earlshill)
Leg 3 (2.25): 5 (More Than Luck), 6 (Morney Wing) & 3 (The Boss’s Dream)
Leg 4 (2.55): 2 (Dolphin Vista) & 1 (Captiva Island)
Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Wood Pigeon), 1 (Achill Road Boy) & 4 (Tower Of Allen)
Leg 6 (3.55): 4 (Flow With Eve), 6 (Bisoubisou) & 5 (Hersmynumber)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.25: There is precious little money in the exchange queues in any of the Fakenham events in the dead of night, whereby I’m wondering if there is a ‘local word’ going around that racing is in jeopardy at the Norfolk outpost today. Upward and onward in positive mode however by suggesting that HURRICANE RITA, YOURHOLIDAYISOVER and (to a fashion) DIZZEY HEIGHTS should get us through to the second leg of our favourite wager if any thoughts of an abandoned meeting are wide of the mark. Olly Murphy was responsible for the thick end of 25% of the entries at the four day stage and HURRICANE RITA should represent the yard to decent effect, over and above stable companion Ataman.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the first race, one of which snared gold at 15/8.
Course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Dizzey Heights (good)
3/11—Gin And Tonic (2 x soft & good)
1.55: At a shade of odds on nearly right across the board this morning, Rio Quinto might be worth taking on from a Placepot perspective, with two half decent alternative options to consider, namely OSCAR STAR and EARLSHILL. The first named Jamie Snowden raider represents a yard which has sent out four of its last five runners to winning effect, whilst Earlshill looks sure to play a part in proceedings on the final circuit. My mind set works in a strange way at times because as cover for opposing the favourite, I might add some insurance for Rio Quinto to beat the ‘three rags’ in forecasts, just in case Richard Johnson’s mount is progressing faster than I have assumed and my Placepot pair disappoint connections and yours truly alike.
Favourite factor: The favourite stats are identical to those in the opening event (2/3 Placepot success), though the winning favourite in this case was returned at 4/6.
Course winner in the second race:
1/1—Rio Quinto (soft)
2.25: There will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card that THE BOSS’S DREAM I’ll wager, especially with trainer Neil King boasting 5/17 stats at the venue this season. It’s worth noting that Neil has only saddled seven other winners this term, verifying his stance at noticing good opportunities at this quite unique circuit which he has continued to do for several seasons now. More logical winners (arguably) include MORE THAN LUCK and MORNEY WING, but I’m also adding Neil’s ten-year-old raider into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence following three renewals, whilst just one of the four market leaders have claimed a Placepot position thus far.
Course winners in the third contest on the card:
2/3—Halo Moon (2 x soft)
1/1—More Than Luck (heavy)
1/2—Morney Wing (soft)
2.55: Potters Midnight is proving easy to back suggesting that Lucy Wadham’s eight-year-old needs more than just first time cheek-pieces applied to win in this grade/company. Realistically, that just leaves two horses to assess with DOLPHIN VISTA probably only having to jump round safely to account for CAPTIVA ISLAND. That said, Richard Johnson will be doing his utmost to ride winners away from the Philip Hobbs yard which has been under something of a cloud for some time now. For the record, Philip only has one runner potential runner tomorrow, though more inmates have been entered up as the week progresses. DOLPHIN VISTA is an interesting recruit to the winter game. He was my selection in last year’s ‘Lincoln’ when beaten less than three lengths and I remained loyal right through to the ‘Cambridgeshire’ when short listing the 50/1 winner.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/4 favourite finished out of the frame behind horses which were returned at 7/2, 7/1 and 16/1.
3.25: A teaser of a Placepot contest and no mistake, as ‘short field’ races tend to be. WOOD PIGEON (in one of only two races on the card in which Olly Murphy has declared just one horse), ACHILL ROAD BOY and TOWER OF ALLEN are named as the tentative trio for my permutation. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races on which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Following the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 favourite (missed out on a Placepot position), market leaders come into the race on a hat trick this time around following just three renewals.
Course winner in the fifth race:
1/6—Wish In A Well (soft)
3.35: HERESMYNUMBER is still on offer at 22/1 (Hills) at the time of writing, though I get the distinct impression that James Bowen’s mount will be a far shorter price when the starter calls the jockeys to order this afternoon. Little Windmill is passed over given his much better record over the larger obstacles, whereby Olly Murphy’s pair FLOW TITH EVE and BISOUBISOU are rated as the main pair ready to thwart the challenge of HERESMYNUMBER at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: For the third time on the card, the three favourites have secured (5/2) gold and silver medals and one ‘no show’ efforts to date.
Course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/7—Little Windmill (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Fakenham card on Monday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
11 runners—Olly Murphy (8/26 +4) – 8/26 +4
3—Neil King (5/17 +19) – 13/75 +34
2—Paul Cowley (First runners at Fakenham this season) – 0/3
2—Shaun Harris (0/1) – 3/10 +2
2—Phil Middleton (0/1) – 0/2
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
41 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wolverhampton: £11.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed