WINDSOR – APRIL 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £80.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 45.5% units went through – 10/1 – 5/1 – 7/2 (5/2)
Race 2: 36.8% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 – 16/1 – 9/2 (5/2)
Race 3: 42.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 – 25/1 – 10/3 (11/4)
Race 4: 38.9% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 5/1 – 25/1 (11/4)
Race 5: 66.5% of the remaining units went through – 5/4* & 14/1
Race 6: 49.5% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2* - 20/1 – 10/1
*Speculative punters were entitled to believe that were in line for a fine dividend after four races on last year’s corresponding card, the first quartet of favourites having finished out of the frame.
The Placepot was worth £26.50 by then but with one third of the surviving units (after four races) making it through to the end, the dividend only reached £80.30, even though three of the five successful Placepot position in races five and six were retuned at 20/1, 14/1 & 10/1.
Unfortunately, the two winning favourites put paid to any thoughts of a three/four figure sum being recorded.
The fifth race favourite accounted for 65.6% of the total Placepot units in that event, whilst 40.9% of the remaining units in the Placepot finale were riding on the market leader.
As a wise man once told me, it rarely (if ever) pays to presume!
Hopefully you joined me in winning a few quid on our favourite bet yesterday. Upwards and onward….
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (4.50): 14 (Fairway To Heaven), 3 (Nuini) & 12 (Ubla)
Leg 2 (5.20): 5 (Blasim), 2 (Nina Petrovna) & 1 (Karalini)
Leg 3 (5.50): 7 (Kinglami), 6 (Acclaim The Nation) & 5 (Rebecca Rocks)
Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Stream Song) & 1 (Zoraya)
Leg 5 (6.50): 1 (Fajjaj) & 2 (Loyal Promise)
Leg 6 (7.20): 11 (Iconic Belle), 7 (Prerogative) & 10 (Strictly Art)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
4.50: All three winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1 and the trio which make most appeal include dual course and distance winner FAIRWAY TO HEAVEN, NUTINI (1/1 at Windsor on good to soft ground – albeit running from higher in the handicap) and UBLA in a race which should not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: The last two favourites have finished out of the frame since the inaugural 5/2 market leader obliged three years ago.
Record of the three course winners in the opening race:
1/1—Nutini (good to soft)
2/13—Perfect Pastime (good to firm & heavy)
2/4—Fairway To Heaven (good to firm & good to soft)
5.20: The brief trends point towards BLASIM running a big race with trainer David Evans having won both renewals to date with fillies that were making their second appearance. BLASIM ran well enough to snare a bronze medal at the first time of asking at Chelmsford and would only have to offer a moderate amount of improvement here to go close. KARALINI has to enter calculations with Mick Channon’s runners going so well at present, whilst Archie Watson saddles his third runner on turf (NINA PETROVNA), the first two having prevailed.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by finished second in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives. Unfortunately, last year’s 5/2 market leader failed to follow suit.
5.50: Four-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals whereby plenty of respect is paid to REBECCA ROCKS, though better conditions would have added confidence. KINGLAMI has finished ‘ in the three’ in 6/11 assignments at this venues, statistics which include three victories. Connections would prefer even softer ground for John O’Shea’s raider who has won 6/12 on soft/heavy ground. Northern raider ACCLAIM THE NATION represents Eric Alston who has saddled his last two runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2—Kinglami (good to firm – soft – heavy)
6.20: Plenty of top stables are represented here though the jungle drums appear to be beating for STREAM SONG who is the latest inmate off the conveyor belt that belongs to John Gosden. John has a good few winners last week, albeit that he failed to live up to some recent years when taking the Newmarket and Newbury meetings by storm. That said, STREAM SONG seems to be the only horse here that exchange players are interested in, whilst I will tentatively offer ZORAYA as the alternative each way play.
Favourite factor: This is the first of the new races on the Windsor card
6.50: Yielding ground offers no concern to connections of FAJJAJ on the face of what we have witnessed thus far and with plenty of fancy entries to his name, Hugo Palmer’s Dawn Approach colt should make short work of this field, albeit LOYAL PROMISING looks a half decent prospect for the Martyn Meade team. Stable companion Fabianski could outrun his odds I guess, though Imaginitive might snare the bronze medal on this occasion.
Favourite factor: The second of the new contests on the Windsor programme.
7.20: Shorter priced horses only make limited appeal in our last race whereby I will include three runners which hail from in-form stables to hopefully land the dividend for us, namely ICONIC BELLE (Mick Channon), PREROGATIVE (Tony Carroll) and STRICTLY ART (Alan Bailey).
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 market leader duly obliged.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.