Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Monday 23rd October

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £17.20 (8 favourites - 3 winners - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Milan Reef), 14 (Bee Machine), 12 (Ventura Quest) & 10 (Barney George)

Leg 2 (2.50): 5 (Sioux Rising), 1 (Dawn Breaking) & 2 (Fortunate Vision)

Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Shaheen), 9 (Purple Rock) & 13 (Misscarlet)

Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Old Persian), 4 (Learn By Heart) & 10 (Unwritten)

Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Know Your Limit) & 9 (Tranquil Star)

Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Minotaur) & 5 (Dominating)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.20: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (14 have been burdened with a maximum of 9-0), and the pick of the runners emerging from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap include MILAN REEF (drawn 4/14), BEE MACHINE (9) and VENTURA QUEST (3). Horses drawn in trap 1 have finished in the frame four times during the last six years as you can see below, as well as claiming toteplacepot positions in seven of the last thirteen contests.  BARNEY GEORGE (1) is also nominated accordingly, despite the fact that Ian Jardine’s raider is quoted as a 20/1 chance in the trade press this morning.  Indeed, 33/1 is available this morning in a few places which defies belief, given that trainer Iain Jardine has saddled three of his last seven runners to winning effect as well as ‘Barney’ occupying a favourable stall position.  ‘Barney’ is Iain’s only runner today.

Draw factor (eight furlongs – most recent result listed first):

6-1-11 (10 ran-soft)

9-11-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-4 (13 ran-soft)

7-5-4 (14 ran-heavy)

8-1-2 (8 ran-heavy)

6-1-2 (14 ran-good)

12-5-3-10 (17 ran-good)

12-9-17 (14 ran-good)

8-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-6-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

17-16-5-14 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-5-2-1 (16 ran-good)

5-11-1-12 (16 ran-good to soft)

4-13-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

16-18-2-19 (19 ran-good)

10-9-13-2 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-7-1-13 (20 ran-soft)

4-11-20-9 (18 ran-soft)

16-2-18-1 (20 ran-heavy)

9-20-4-11 (19 ran-good)

18-16-4-19 (20 ran-soft)

20-16-17-7 (19 ran-good to soft)

 

2.40: You will have to excuse my belligerent mood this morning (not feeling 100%) but I have to take issue with the powers that be for calling this a ‘new race’ (yet again) given that it is only the change of ‘novice prefix’ that is different, with the contest remaining as a Class 5 event over six furlongs.  I have left my figures in place whereby it is your decision whether you take notice of the stats or ‘adopt’ the other option.  Upwards and onward by informing that Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners of this juvenile event when represented and the trainer has offered the green light to SIOUX RISING on this occasion.  I take little (or no) comfort from the fact that the form was registered at Redcar which offers dubious consistency in general terms from my perspective.  Trainer David Brown has had a poor season by his standards, registering a strike rate of just 7% this term, though his recent Catterick winner FORTUNATE VISION will hopefully lift the spirit of the yard by figuring prominently in this grade/company.  I’m not sure where else you could read the fact that an underrated trainer here boasts stats of 6/11 at Pontefract this season, namely Richard Whitaker (DAWN BREAKING), a ratio which has produced level stake profits of 23 points.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst 17 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dawn Breaking (heavy)

Draw factor (six furlongs):

5-2-8 (9 ran-soft)

9-6-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-6-11 (12 ran-soft)

4-5-3 (10 ran-heavy)

2-12-5 (12 ran-heavy)

9-7-11 (14 ran-good)

9-3-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-16-1 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-8-12 (13 ran-good)

5-7-4 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-6-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-10-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

2-3-4 (12 ran-good)

8-1-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-17 (17 ran-soft)

15-10-17 (18 ran-soft)

 

3.20: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared eight of the last nine renewals of this contest, with soft ground course winner ROYAL SHAHEEN potentially representing the four-year-old vintage to good effect.  7/1 is still available with Bet365 as I write which looks a ‘bet to nothing’ from an each way perspective from my viewpoint.  Others to consider include PURPLE ROCK and three-year-old MISSCARLET who has plenty of scope for improvement on just her third assignment.

Favourite factor: Four clear favourites have won during the last eight years (seven and half points of level stake profit) during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 9/1.  Indeed, seven of those gold medallists scored at 5/1 or less, though just one of the other five market leaders during the period additionally claimed a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/7—Save The Bees (good to firm)

1/2—Royal Shaheen (soft)

1/1—Misscarlet (soft)

 

3.40: Charlie Appleby swerved the entire weekend which only goes to prove that not all heads are turned because of substantial prize money.  Cynical readers might suggest that Charlie’s team might have been out of form but that simply is not the case, as the popular trainer has saddled five of his last eleven runners to winning effect, stats which have produced sixteen points of level stake profit.  Charlie saddled the winner of this event last year for good measure, whereby OLD PERSIAN is very much the first name on the team sheet.  Don’t expect 7/4 to be on offer however, as indicated in the trade press betting forecast.  LEARN BY HEART looks set to offer another solid performance on ground which suits, whilst UNWRITTEN could become a market mover if plenty of rain evolves during the morning.

Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders, one co and one joint favourite have won in the last 20 years, whilst 18 of the 23 favourites secured toteplacepot dividends during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Unwritten (heavy)

 

4.20: Three-year-olds have secured eleven of the twelve Placepot positions to date, albeit from around 75% of the runners which have contested just four renewals to date.  Vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with KNOW YOUR LIMIT and TRANQUIL STAR fully expected to secure the fourth three-year-old victory in the race between them.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include two successful (15/8 & 7/4) market leaders from a win perspective.

 

4.50: Pontefract's obsession with hold staying races at every meeting drags on though to be entirely fair, it's just about the only ‘complaint’ I have about the venue. These events are more like graded greyhound races as old rivals shake hooves before going in the traps to see whose day it is going to be from meeting to meeting.  That said, I know some punters will hold their own (more positive) views but I can never get away from the fact that horses which lack pace to contest shorter events defies the intention of the sport.  Yes, thousands of horses contest races over two miles and more in the NH sector, though the discipline of jumping timber makes that a spectacle worth viewing each and every time.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MINOTAUR and DOMINATING should land the dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged before last year’s 5/6 favourites finished second when securing a Placepot position..

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/20—Tuscan Gold (2 x good to firm)

2/7—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:

7 runners—Tim Easterby (8/43 +6)

5—Richard Fahey (9/81 – loss of 29 points)

4—Bryan Smart (1/8 +3)

4—Ed Walker (0/1)

3—Karl Burke (2/24 – loss of 17 points)

3—Mark Johnston (7/48 – loss of 24 points)

2—Michael Appleby (0/15)

2—Marco Botti (0/1)

2—Declan Carroll (1/15 – loss of 2 points)

2—Mick Channon (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Michael Dods (1/30 – loss of 13 points)

2—Mick Easterby (4/23 +2)

2—Les Eyre (1/13 – loss of 8 points)

2—Roger Fell (0/14)

2—William Haggas (0/5)

2—Micky Hammond (4/28 +10)

2—Sally Haynes (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Paul Midgley (1/23 – loss of 15 points)

2—David O’Meara (2/27 +2)

2—Jimmy Quinn (level return this season)

2—Richard Whitaker (6/11 +23)

+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

78 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £762.80 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £68.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *