LEICESTER – SEPTEMBER 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £27.60 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Misty Spirit), 3 (Lady Dancealot) & 12 (Sienna Says)
Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Kings Academy) & 13 (Undiscovered Angel)
Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Beachcomber Bot) & 6 (Porth Swtan)
Leg 4 (3.40): 8 (Lathom), 7 (Venturous) & 4 (Union Rose)
Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Lester Kris), 7 (Military Parade) & 1 (Golden Birthday)
Leg 6 (4.45): 10 (Royal Melody), 1 (Fastnet Spin) & 8 (Ashazuri)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Horses drawn or high or low have dominated in recent years with four of the last six winners having been drawn in ‘double figures; whilst the other two gold medallists emerged from traps one and two. David Elsworth’s only two runners on the card contest this opening event, with both raiders holding realistic chances, namely MISTY SPIRIT (drawn 9/13) & LADY DANCEALOT (5). David has ‘only’ saddled eleven winners since January which by his high standards is a poor return, especially given the relevant 11% strike rate. Add the fact that only one of his 24 juvenile has won this year, and you can understand why I would not backing either of his runners to win this contest, albeit their Placepot chances are there for all to see. I prefer course and distance winner MISTY SPIRIT of the pair, despite the fact that David Probert’s mount is as much as three times the price of the projected favourite. Havana Heart (trap one) is left out of the mix as no money has been forthcoming for the Ismail Mohammed raider at the time of writing though should that scenario be reversed before flag fall, you should heed the warning. At present though, SIENNA SAYS is preferred from stall twelve.
Favourite factor: Although only two of the last nine renewals have been won by favourites. Level stake investors have only suffered marginal losses as the two winners were returned at 3/1 and 11/4. Indeed. Seven of the last ten winners have scored at a top price of 11/2. That said, only one of the last five favourites have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the opening race:
1/1—Misty Spirit (good)
1/3—Queen Of Kalahari (soft)
1/1—Felisa (good to soft)
2.35: Good to soft course winner KINGS ACADEMY is the first name on the team sheet, albeit the Mayson gelding has yet to prove that this seventh furlong is a bonus at the third attempt at the distance. That said, KINGS ACADEMY has been well placed by Paul Cole in this grade/company I’ll wager, with only UNDISCOVERED ANGEL and (to a lesser degree) Spirit Of Belle expected to offer resistance at the business end of the contest. From a win perspective, I would far rather be a layer than a player in this event. At their shortest prices on offer at the time of writing, the trio are coupled at 2/7 which suggests laying is the name of the game, albeit I cannot obviously see where the winner might be coming from. At 2/7, I think we can afford to be ‘wrong’ should that scenario unfold.
Favourite factor: The last five winners have scored at a top price of 5/1 though that said, four renewals have slipped by since the last (even money) favourite prevailed. During that recent period however, only two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second event:
1/4—Jet Setter (good to soft)
1/3—Kings Academy (good to soft)
3.05: The 5/4 trade press quote about BEACHCOMBER BOY looks far too skinny from my viewpoint, albeit I am the first to latch onto Charlie Appleby’s 3/7 ratio at Leicester this season. Charlie’s Invincible Spirit representative is one of the oldest horses in the line up given his Jan 29 birth date, with his third birthday not that far away now. This is a definite advantage, albeit PORTH SWTAN has gained plenty of experience via three assignments whereby the Charlie Hills raider is added to the mix, especially as his best offering to date emerged with juice in the ground. COURT HOUSE is yet to ‘catch fire’ on the exchanges though it is still early doors this morning whereby eventual support (if forthcoming) should be taken into account relating to the John Gosden entry.
Favourite factor: This novice event is (predictably) a new race on the Leicester card.
3.40: LATHOM has his first run for Julie Camacho here and though last year’s ‘Super Sprint’ winner has plummeted down the ratings, there is a definite chance that Julie’s Compton Place gelding could reward win and place investors at around the 9/1 mark at the time of writing. VENTUROUS (David Barron’s horses are in good form) and UNION ROSE (much better for getting his toe into the turf) are feared most.
Favourite factor: Two market leaders have obliged via seven contests thus far, the last six winners having scored at a top price of 11/2 (favourite). Five of the eight favourites in total have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/2—Smokey Lane (good to soft)
4.15: Three-year-olds have won the last three (of four) renewals, albeit via 77% of the total number of runners (17/22). Vintage representatives are 2/5 to extend the tally before form is taken into consideration at the time of writing, with one defector recorded thus far. LESTER KRIS turns out to be Richard Hannon’s only remaining runner on the card which makes for interesting reading, whilst Saeed Bin Suroor (MILITARY PARADE) attempts to saddled his first winner at the track this season at the eighth time of asking this afternoon. GOLDEN BIRTHDAY cannot be ignored in this grade/company, albeit Harry Fry’s six-year-old has to give seven pounds to the junior raiders, which is potentially increased to twelve via Rossa Ryan’s claim aboard LESTER KRIS.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/7) winner.
4.45: Heather Main’s horses have gone off the boil to a fashion (all six beaten in September), though her 25% strike rate during the months of July and August (via six winners) were gained when securing 27 points of level stake profit. ROYAL MELODY is not without a chance here on behalf of the yard, with connections arguably having most to fear from FASTNET SPIN and ASHAZURI.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (9/4) favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Titan Goddess (good to soft)
1/2—Duchess Of Fife (good to soft)
2/10—Imperial Link (soft & heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—William Muir (0/6)
3—Michael Appleby (0/26)
3—David Evans (3/23 – slight profit)
3—Brian Meehan (0/5)
2—Andrew Balding (2/10 – slight profit)
2—David Barron (5/11 +10)
2—Andi Brown (No previous runners)
2—Tony Carroll (2/20 – loss of 6 points)
2—Brian Ellison (1/7 +2)
2—David Elsworth (1/4 +2)
2—Julia Feilden (0/8)
2—John Flint (0/1)
2—John Gosden (2/11 – loss of 6 points)
2—Ron Harris (0/1)
2—Charlie Hills (2/14 – loss of 7 points)
2—Michael Mullineaux (2/10 +9)
2—Jonathan Portman (0/8)
2—Brendan Powell (0/4)
2—Richard Price (0/4)
2—Marcus Tregoning (1/1 +10)
2—Archie Watson (0/3)
+ 44 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
91 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hamilton: £54.20 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced (Abandoned today)
Kempton: £121.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced