WINDSOR – JUNE 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £701.90 (6 favourites: No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 3.7 units went through – 22/1 – 16/1 – 20/1 (11/4)
Race 2: 89.0% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 66/1 – 10/11*
Race 3: 54.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 6/4*
Race 4: 29.2% of the remaining units went through – 10/3 & 13/8*
Race 5: 24.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 & 11/4 (15/8)
Race 6: 43.9% of the units secured the dividend – 5/1 & 3/1 (9/4)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (6.10): 6 (Cent Flying), 2 (Spot Lite) & 3 (Spanish Star)
Leg 2 (6.40): 11 (Swiper), 5 (Glory) & 9 (Storm Shelter)
Leg 3 (7.10): 2 (Bella Ferrari) & 6 (Edge Of The World)
Leg 4 (7.40): 3 (Buffer Zone) & 5 (Perfect Hustler)
Leg 5 (8.10): 1 (Desert Path), 5 (Morning Sky) & 2 (Candidate)
Leg 6 (8.40): 1 (Worth Waiting) & 2 (Contrive)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
6.10: CENT FLYING is ten pounds better in with SPOT LITE for a minimum margin defeat on Bath form earlier in the year. It would not be wise to take that form line too seriously given the different format of the two tracks but even so, the weights and measures act offers the nod to the first named William Muir raider, on principle if nothing else. Bookmakers have choked on cigars for as long as man can recall when such scenarios have been on place, only for the form lines to become as twisted as Alfred Hitchcock plots down the years. Should both runners fall wide of the required mark (entirely possible at this level), connections of SPANISH STAR should prove to be the main beneficiaries.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite sent the majority of punters home happy, given that twelve months ago, this was the last race on the card.
6.40: Tom Clover has saddled just the one juvenile winner from six two-year-old runners so far this season, though it’s worth pointing out that the gold medallist in question (Gypsy Spirit) won at 14/1 at this venue. Tom saddles STORM SHELTER this time around with the same jockey (Josephine Gordon) booked to ride. That said, Richard Hannon has declared two horses and there might not be a great deal to choose between SWIPER and GLORY who were both mentioned positively in despatches via a stable tour earlier in the year. It’s worth noting that Richard sent out six winners on Saturday (barely noticed by hacks because of the royal meeting). Yes, Richard saddled 18 runners on the day but the accumulator was worth 727/1 if you picked the correct sextet, scorers which produced three points of level stake profit for the yard.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.
7.10: There will be worse outsiders on the card than BLESSED TO IMPRESS I’ll wager, though BELLA FERRARI and EDGE OF THE WORLD should dominate proceedings at the business end of the contest. The pair is listed in order of preference, given that the 6/1 quote in a couple of places this morning offers half decent ‘bet to nothing’ prospects about the George Scott’s raider who is a pound better off with that rival on Leicester form last time out, when George’s Bated Breath filly was making her handicap debut. That said, Ralph Beckett sent one horse up to Pontefract to winning effect yesterday and his hat trick seeker EDGE OF THE WORLD looks set to run her race again on these terms.
Favourite factor: Another new contest on the Windsor programme.
7.40: Ten of the twelve winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which suggest that Kimifive (from 8-6) might struggle against his five rivals this event. The pick of the relevant quintet will hopefully prove to be BUFFER ZONE, though those working from a working man’s wage might care to row in with Jeremy Noseda’s each way option, namely PERFECT HUSTLER who is closely matched with the hot favourite via two-year-old form. Jeremy has suffered something of a well-documented traumatic year, though it’s worth noting that his 8/28 record since February is a (29%) ratio which most trainers would settle for.
Favourite factor: Eleven of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/1—Buffer Zone (good)
8.10: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6, though even this self-confessed ‘stats anorak’ is taking on the figures this time around with DESERT PATH. Amanda Perret’s top weight is still on offer at 9/2 at the time of writing, a price that I snapped up in the dead of night, presuming that the odds would not last too long. MORNING SKYE and CANDIDATE have both been well placed by their respective connections, though DESRT PATH represents a far better chance than the 18% ‘probability quote’ by the layers this morning from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the last 21 years, statistics which include six winners.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
1/1—Desert Path (good)
8.40: Starlight Mystery represents some value for money at around the 9/1 mark this morning in the Placepot finale, though the safest options to secure another dividend appear to be WORTH WAITING and CONTRIVE. David Lanigan’s raider WORTH WAITING is the option that I would take if money arrives for the Bated Breath filly, given that a great number of David’s winners are well backed. Without holding that potential edge by writing this analysis fourteen hours ahead of the race, I will just have to be patient and see what support transpires.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have finished out with the washing thus far.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last the previous year (2016 - £455.90)
Despite five winning favourites in the relevant Placepot events, one race did the damage.
Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance.
As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.