EPSOM - AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY MONDAY (28TH)
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £56.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Monday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.05): 5 (Voice Of The North), 8 (Powerful Society) & 1 (Make Good)
Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Loving) & 2 (Summerghand)
Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Majestic Hero), 6 (Discreet Hero) & 7 (Midnight Malibu)
Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (C’Est No Mour), 7 (Star Of Lombardy) & 1 (Hollywood Road)
Leg 5 (4.20): 4 (Midterm) & 5 (Mount Logan)
Leg 6 (4.55): 3 (Grapevine), 2 (Michele Strogoff) & 8 (Sound Bar)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.05: Mark Johnston boasts a 25% record with his juvenile at Epsom during the last five years, figures which have been boosted by Mark’s 2/5 strike rate at The Surrey venue this term. This bodes well for Mark’s Mount Nelson colt VOICE OF THE NORTH though it’s worth noting that this is a particular late May foal that would be fully four and a half months younger than some two-year-olds in training. POWERFUL SOCIETY and MAKE GOOD have experience on their side which means a great deal, particularly on this track which takes some handling.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Epsom.
2.40: Seven of the nine winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or more, as have 14 of the 22 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. These statistics eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap, hopefully leaving LOVING and SUMERGHAND to battle it out at business at of proceedings. The reserve nomination is awarded to PASTFACT who is seeking a four-timer on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include three successful (3/1-11/4**-15/8) market leaders.
3.15: Four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and with vintage representatives being around the 8/13 mark to extend the good run of results, preferred. Two of the last four horses that trainer Ron Harris has saddled have won whereby his course winner MAJESTIC HERO is the first name on the score-sheet ahead of DISCREET HERO and MIDNIGHT MALIBU.
Favourite factor: Six renewals had slipped by since the last favourite won this before last year’s event when the 11/4 market leader prevailed. Four of the seven market leaders have now secured Placepot positions during the period.
Epsom record of runners in the third race:
1/2—Majestic Hero (good)
3.50: C’EST NO MOUR, STAR OF LAMBARDY and HOLLYWOOD ROAD all feature in my toteplacepot permutation in this contest which was known for many years as the ‘Derby‘ for part time pilots. 16/1 chance STAR OF LOMBARDY is the win and place call, given that Mark Johnston’s raider is a course and distance winner who is partnered by the more than capable rider Alex Ferguson.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions since the terms and conditions altered the shape of this event back in 2005. Four market leaders have prevailed from a win perspective during the period.
Epsom record of runners in the fourth event:
1/3—Thames Knight (good)
1/2—Star Of Lombardy (good to firm)
4.20: Five-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals when represented though unfortunately, these stats will have to been shelved until next year with vintage representatives only conspicuous by their absence this time around. Connections of MIDTERM will be about as disappointed as Arsene Wenger this morning though at four years of age, the thoroughbred (arguably) has more time of his side compared to the Arsenal manager! That said, this one time Derby favourite enters my personal ‘last chance saloon’, with MOUNT LOGAN appear to be the obvious ‘stumbling block’ to overcome.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have scored via thirteen renewals of late with the 12/1 gold medallist being returned as the biggest priced winner during the study period in 2012. It’s worth noting that eight of the nine market leaders that failed to win their respective contests finished out of the frame, statistics which include one (5/6) odds on favourite.
Epsom Record of runners in the fifth race:
1/5—Great Hall (good)
4.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals of the Placepot finale when represented, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-5. GRAPEVINE and MICHELE STROGOFF both possess ticks in the relevant boxes and at respective odds of 11/1 & 20/1 on offer at the time of writing, punters have a chance to ‘get out of jail free’ here. I will back that pair up with another each way option, namely 10/1 chance SOUND BAR.
Favourite factor: Thirteen renewals have now slipped by with successful favourites only being conspicuous by their absence. Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the money during the study period.
Epsom Record of runners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Innocent Touch (good)
1/2—Grapevine (good to soft)
2/4—Lorelina (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this year + profits/losses accrued:
3—Jim Boyle (0/6)
3—Richard Fahey (0/12)
3—Gary Moore (1/7 +1)
3—David O’Meara (1/9 – loss of five points)
3—Roger Varian (1/1 +8)
2—David Brown (No previous runners)
2—Tony Coyle (1/1 +25)
2—Charlie Hills (1/6 – loss of 1 point)
2—Mark Johnston (5/25 – Slight Profit)
2—Rod Millman (0/1)
2—David Simcock (0/3)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £403.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Ripon: £76.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Cartmel: £036.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced
Southwell: No meeting