LEICESTER - OCTOBER 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £595.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (12.15): 7 (Towelrads Boy), 3 (Red Symbal) & 4 (Sarstedt)
Leg 2 (12.45): 9 (Rainbow Jazz), 15 (Foxrush Take Time), 16 (Shadow Seeker) & 11 (Rosedale Topping)
Leg 3 (1.20): 1 (Master The World) & 6 (Dance The Dream)
Leg 4 (1.55): 8 (Fire Brigade), 10 (Mazyoun) & 5 (King’s Pavilion)
Leg 5 (2.30): 7 (Topmeup) & 1 (Sans Souci Bay)
Leg 6 (3.05): 2 (Clubbable) & 4 (Haylah)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.15: Horses at the head of the market had totally dominated this event until a rogue 14/1 chance emerged six years ago – after which the race revered to type until a 16/1 winner reared its ugly head two years back. Although Paul Cole has only saddled six winners via a modest 15% strike rate (by Paul’s night standards) with his two-year-old runners this season, the trainer boasts level stake profits of 18 points which suggests that his ‘outsider’ TOWELRADS BOY is not without a chance in this opening event. Money has arrived for Paul’s Red Jazz colt who looks to have genuine each way/Placepot claims in this grade/company at the first time of asking. If you are reading this in the dead of night, you might like to note that Hills are offering 11/1 about Paul’s April foal – win, lose or draw. Others to consider include the Haggas newcomer RED CYMBAL and SARSTEDT, albeit Henry Candy’s latter named Sixties Icon colt is looking a little exposed now on his fifth assignment.
Favourite factor: Favourites have a fine record in this event as five of eleven market leaders have prevailed, if you decide to take my point that this is not the ‘new race’ as the media would have us believe. The same classification is in place (same Class/distance etc) whereby the prefix of this now being a ‘novice’ event as opposed to last year’s ‘maiden’ makes no difference to results from my viewpoint. Eight of the eleven market leaders have finished in the frame, with three of the six beaten favourites having secured the silver medals in their respective events.
12.45: 14 of the 18 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less, whilst six of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 8-13. Taking the stats and facts into consideration produces a short list of RAINBOW JAZZ, FOXRUSH TAKE TIME, SHADOW SEEKER and ROSEDALE TOPPING from a Placepot perspective in a tight looking two-year-old handicap. Considering his 0/17 record at the track during the last five years, the overnight support for the first named Mark Usher raider is difficult to understand though that said, this Class 5 Nursery contest will not take a great deal of winning.
Favourite factor: Seven of the 16 winners of this event in recent times have been returned at 20/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1 (twice) alongside three winning favourites. Eight of the 19 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the second event:
1/2—Felisa (good to soft)
1.20: NOBLE GIFT was withdrawn from this event when fancied to figure prominently by your truly twelve months ago. As a winner of two of his subsequent 17 races since landing this event two years ago, William Knight’s front runner could finish in the mix if offered an easy lead, though DANCE THE DREAM and MASTER THE WORLD are preferred from a win perspective. David Elsworth latter named raider was receiving plenty of support on the exchanges when writing up this event, whereby connections might be more confident of MASTER THE WORLD staying this trip than the trade press staff who have aired their concerns.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have secured Placepot positions to date by winning their respective events at 2/1 & 7/4. As so often seems to be the case, the shortest priced (5/4) market leader missed out when finishing third in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which horses have to finish in the first two to qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/2—Dance The Dream (good to soft)
1/3—Noble Gift (soft)
1.55: Three and four-year-olds have won 13 of the last 15 renewals of this event (juniors lead 8-5 in the process), whilst seven of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1. It defied belied that just three of the ten declarations from the relevant vintages last year contested the event, producing the successful 7/2 favourite and a 7/1 bronze medallist. Just two ‘junior’ raider =s have been declared this time around, namely FIRE BRIGADE and MAZYOUN. The pick of the four-year-old’s on this occasion might prove to be KING’S PAVILION. The dark horse in the race is Chatez who won at 14/1 for yours truly the last time we saw his him a racecourse, fully two and a half years ago. With the stats supporting the younger horses, I am just about content to pass over Alan King’s raider on this occasion, though don’t be at all surprised if CHATEZ outruns his odds before his lack of race fitness tells at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five of the last fifteen renewals have been secured by favourites, though five other scorers were returned at 33/1-16/1-11/1-10/1-10/1 during the study period. Ten of the 18 favourites finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
1/2—Gurkha Friend (good to soft)
2.30: The terms and conditions of this Claiming event point towards three-year-olds who lead 22-9 via the available toteplacepot positions, whilst the last nine winners all carried a maximum burden of 8-13. The stats and facts suggest that TOPMEUP should go close, though conditions have come right for course winner SANS SOUCI BAY. Last night’s dipping temperatures suggest that the ground will retain moisture today given any ‘thawing’ of frost, whatever else the weather decides to do today.
Favourite factor: Just one (4/1 joint) favourite has scored via ten renewals during the last 13 years, whilst four of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—San Souci Bay
3.05: Whilst I would not contemplate backing either horse to win the race at the prices on offer, CLUABBABLE and HAYLAH are surely destined to claim at least one Placepot positon between them. If I have been accurate is assessing the second race on the card as being a benefit contest for bookmakers, I am allowing myself the opportunity of ‘laying off’ my two two Placepot selections at exceptionally skinny (place) prices on the exchanges in the last leg of our favourite wager, especially if a really good dividend is in the offing.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a ‘genuine new race’ on the Leicester card.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Monday + this year’s Leicester stats & level stake profit/loss evaluation:
5 runners—Richard Fahey (5/32 – loss of 3 points)
3—David Evans (6/30 +9)
3—Richard Hannon (7/40 – loss of 5 points)
3—Ali Stronge (0/1)
3—David O’Meara (1/12 – loss of 8 points)
3—Marcus Tregoning (1/3 +8)
2—Karl Burke (1/17 – loss of 10 points)
2—Henry Candy (1/6 – loss of 3 points)
2—James Fanshawe (4/7 +19)
2—Richard Guest (0/3)
2—William Haggas (1/19 – loss of 6 points)
2—John Jenkins (0/3)
2—Alan King (3/10 +10)
2—Martin Smith (0/2)
2—Mark Usher (0/2)
+ 49 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
87 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £241.40 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 6 unplaced
Redcar: £51.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced