WINDSOR - JULY 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £27.70 (8 favourites - 2 winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.35): 6 (Fortitude), 1 (Mr Pocket) & 7 (Pour La Victoire)
Leg 2 (6.05): 2 (Dream Prospect) & 3 (Global Academy)
Leg 3 (6.40): 1 (Fast And Hot), 4 (Glorious Forever) & 2 (Western Duke)
Leg 4 (7.15): 3 (Al Barg) & 1 (Tip Two Win)
Leg 5 (7.50): 9 (Moojaned), 6 (Boychick) & 5 (Cordite)
Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Fastar), 2 (Lyric Fantasy & 4 (Know Your Limit)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.35: Hugo Palmer cannot do a lot wrong at present and the trainer appears to have found a decent opportunity for FORTITUDE to gain her second win, especially as her previous success came under soft conditions at Doncaster. The 3/1 forecast SP in the trade press looks fanciful at the time of writing with a whole point likely to be chopped off that quote by the time that flag fall arrives. MR POCKET is only a pound above his mark when beaten by narrow margins in two of his last three starts, having finished second in one of the two juvenile contests on the corresponding card twelve months ago. The pick of the outsiders could prove to be POUR LA VICTOIRE who has not encountered ground this soft before but ran well enough under yielding conditions at Brighton nearly a year ago. Tony Carroll’s raider runs off a three pound lower mark than when recording back to back victories last summer.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card with which to start proceedings.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/3—Indian Affair (good to firm)
6.05: Roger Charlton has enjoyed a fine spell during what now appears to pass as ‘summer’, the trainer having saddled 17 winners (21% strike rate) during June/July as we close out this appalling month in terms of the weather. Roger saddles his Invincible Spirit colt DREAM PROSPECT though if the March foal is to live up to his name, nothing less than a victory in this grade/company will suffice. It’s said that Gay Kelleway has a better crop of juveniles this year than she has enjoyed for many a season whereby GLOBAL ACADEMY is rated at the main danger to the selection.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 4/11 favourite was turned over in a four runner 'win only' contest before a 3/10 market leader made amends twelve months on. Last year’s 2/1 joint favourites snared the two available Placepot positions when finishing well clear of their rivals in a short field event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
6.40: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last fifteen renewals which makes for something of a change in this type of event (three-year-olds usually have the edge) and the trend might be extended by FAST AND HOT. Three-year-old's that will push the tentative selection all the way to the line are fellow good to soft course winner GLORIOUS FOREVER and (possibly) X RATED. This is Mark Johnston’s time of year, though he will be hoping that softer conditions might bring about a return to form for X RATED who disappointed big time at Hamilton the last day under a six pound penalty for a fast ground success previously gained at Bath. WESTERN DUKE cannot be left out of the Placepot mix either as dawn breaks over Bristol.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eighteen years which is not a bad return in this type of event, though just four of the other fifteen market leaders additionally claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the third race:
2/4—Fast And Hot (good & good to soft)
1/1—Glorious Forever (good to soft)
7.15: 'Team Hannon' had saddled three of the last nine winners of this event (before the ‘prefix’ change – see below for details), having also landed the forecast eight years ago with 2/1 and 28/1 raiders for good measure. Haydock runner up AL BARG has been given the green light on this occasion and there is every chance that Richard's Acclamation colt will improve the recent ratio, though connections of TIP TWO WIN might have a word or two to say about that comment. There was plenty to like about the way that Roger Teal’s debutant won here a few weeks ago, though Roger was on the crest of a wave at the time, whilst conditions were a great deal faster then to what will be in place this evening. The yard remains in good form however (two of Roger’s last three runners have finished second) whereby a victory for the penalised Dark Angel colt would come as a complete surprise, especially as the sire’s stock generally handle soft ground better than most (15% strike rate).
Favourite factor: This is now classed as a new race via the BHA rulings regarding novice events which was brought into play the thick end of eighteen months ago. I will leave the previous results in (for the last time) for your perusal (same distance event for two-year-olds), though whether you take any notice of them because of the new ruling is your decision to make. Five of the eighteen previous favourites had prevailed, whilst twelve market leaders had claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/1—Tip Two Win (good to firm)
7.50: All four winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3, as have six of the nine horses to have claimed the available Placepot positions thus far. Those stats go against the chance of MOOJANED, though proven soft ground course winners are few and far between on the card, whilst each way support has (seemingly) been gaining momentum overnight. That said, the Placepot chance for BOYCHICK is there for all to see, though whether I would want to take the 2/1 quote about Jamie Spencer’s mount actually winning the contest is open to date. CORDITE has only won the one race from 30 assignments, though the success was gained under soft conditions and in a race which might not prove difficult to win, Jim Boyle’s Footstepsinthesand gelding has been placed in two of his last four starts at the track at 20/1 & 16/1.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have obliged via four renewals to date, though search parties are still out looking for other three unplaced market leaders.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/2—Della Salle (soft)
2/9—Moojaned (good to firm & soft)
8.20: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-3 have secured seven of the ten Placepot positions to date, statistics which include all four (3/1-3/1-9/4*-9/4**) winners. The weight stats eliminate the one remaining horses down at the bottom of the handicap (the other was quickly withdrawn) and the pick of the relevant quartet appears to be FASTAR, KNOW YOUR LIMIT and LYRIC FANTASY. The latter named Giles Bravery raider is the only horse to have won with the word soft featuring in the relevant going description and given the 8/1 quote in a place this morning, there will be worse ‘outsiders’ on the card I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 9/4.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued – then winning starting prices at last year’s corresponding card if/where applicable:
4 runners—Richard Hannon (9/38 – Profit of 11 points)
3—Ed Walker (4/19 – Slight profit)
2—Roger Charlton (3/9 – Profit of 12 points + winner last year at 7/2)
2—David Evans (4/46 – loss of 23 points)
2—Nikki Evans (0/1)
2—Mike Murphy (0/8)
2—Hugo Palmer (2/10 – Profit of 12 points + winner last year at 2/1)
Trainer who has one runner this year who saddled a winner 12 months ago:
Ralph Beckett (2/15 – loss of eight points + winner last year at 9/4**)
+ 23 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
41 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £157.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Newton Abbot: £50.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £188.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
*Footnote to Wolverhampton if you like backing rank outsiders on the tote for potential freak dividends – A 200/1 winner was returned at the corresponding meeting last year, though base went over apex on the tote which paid just 50/1….ouch!