PLUMPTON – DECEMBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £24.70 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (12.40): 8 (Piton Pete) & 9 (Puppet Warrior)
Leg 2 (1.10): 1 (Optimus Prime), 4 (Shamma Grise) & 3 (San Pedro De Senam)
Leg 3 (1.40): 4 (Tambura), 7 (Act Now) & 5 (Ding Ding)
Leg 4 (2.10): 1 (Knocknanuss) & 6 (Solomon Grey)
Leg 5 (2.40): 7 (Itoldyou), 1 (Flight Commander) & 5 (Like Sully)
Leg 6 (3.10): 3 (Kristal Hart) & 7 (Our Merlin)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Although Oliver Sherwood’s 0/2 record at Plumpton this season is hardly inspiring, there are ‘only’ nine tracks up and down the country where the trainer has saddled more winners (30 in total), stats which have been gained via a 19% strike rate. Oliver appears to have found a decent opportunity for PITON PETE to score at the sixth time of asking, having secured two medals of both the silver and bronze variety to date. That said, I would not go wading into the 10/11 on offer at the time of writing but his Placepot credentials are there for all to see. Nick Gifford saddled a winner last week and his PUPPET WARRIOR will probably offer better value for money than the Tizzard representative Battle Of Ideas, particularly when considering your Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Plumpton on Monday.
1.10: I find trouble in dismissing a Harry Fry 14/1 raider in a four runner race usually, but Behind Time looks to be potentially outclassed here whilst reporting that since the start of November, only one of the 29 races in which just four runners contested an event, just one (4/1) winner has emerged. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that although OPTIMUS PRIME is not in the same league (respectfully) as last year’s winner Top Notch, Dan Skelton’s raider looks good enough to build on his successful Worcester debut in this green and pleasant land in this grade/company, despite giving upwards of five pounds to his rivals. That said, SHAMMA GRISE and SAN PEDRO DE SENAM cannot be eliminated in this ‘win only’ contest given the potential of the Placepot dividend should either of them score.
Favourite factor: The distinctly useful Top Notch becamethe third successive winning odds on favourite in this event twelve months ago.
1.40: All five winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chances of fellow course winners ACT NOW and DING DING (winner on this card last year) though from my viewpoint, TAMBURA boasts a half decent chance of gaining her third successive success in the race, especially as she is three pounds lower than when defending her crown successfully twelve months ago under the same projected (good to soft) conditions. The ground will also suit the other course winners and this trio are speculative selections against more fancied rivals who will have to beat the weight trend if they are to score.
Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via five renewals.
Record of the course winners in the field:
3/6—Tambura (2 x soft & good to soft)
4/11—Ding Ding (2 x good – good to soft – soft)
2/2—Act Now (soft & heavy)
2.10: Four-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals but I am inclined to dismiss the vintage trend (shock horror) on this occasion, with KNOCKNANUSS and SOLOMAN GREY having been declared. Gary Moore’s local first named raider obviously does not take a great deal of racing but when he is offered the green light, the Beneficial gelding rarely lets his supporters down, certainly from a Placepot perspective at the very least. In terms of Placepot consistency, the same can be said about Dan Skelton’s representative SOLOMON GREY.
Favourite factor: All six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four (11/4, 4/6, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/1—Knocknanuss (good to firm)
2.40: ITOLD YOU won this event back in 2013 and the 15/2 quote by Betfair and Paddy Power could prove popular this morning I’ll wager. LIKE SULLY has won all three of his 22 assignments over obstacles here at Plumpton and Richard Rowe’s nine year-old is another outsider to consider, albeit Oliver Sherwood’s FLIGHT COMMANDER is probably a more logical call in terms of winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via eight renewals thus far, statistics which include five (5/4--7/4—13/8—2/1—7/2) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/4—Talk Of The South (soft)
2/8—Flashman (good to firm & good to soft)
3/10—Like Sully (good – soft – heavy)
2/11—Itoldyou (good & good to soft)
2/15—Venetian Lad (2 x good)
1/10—Frank N Fair (good)
3.10: I am reverting to a tried and trusted formula in the Placepot finale, hoping that some of my earlier outsiders on the card have reached the frame. I have made the point before that if in doubt, it’s as well to offer two shorter priced horses in the last leg whereby we can ‘lay off’ from a place perspective at very short odds on the exchanges, should a potentially decent dividend be in the offing. The only problem on this occasion is that if the field is reduced down to less than eight runners, place betting on the exchanges are different to the ruling on the Placepot so keep your eyes peeled for non runners before considering ‘laying off’, if you have reached this point ‘intact’ from a Placepot viewpoint. KRISTAL HART and OUR MERLIN are my pair against the field in this ‘dead eight’ event.
Favourite factor: One of the three favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Gary Moore (4/22 +11)
4—Oliver Sherwood (0/2)
3—Nick Gifford (0/4)
3—Linda Jewell (1/5 +4)
3—Dan Skelton (3/9 – loss of 1 point)
2—Brian Barr (0/1)
2—Paul Henderson (First runners at the track this season)
2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3)
2—Chris Gordon (3/14 +2)
2—Warren Greatrex (1/2 +11)
2—Neil Mullholland (4/12 – loss of 1 point)
2—David Pipe (1/1 +5)
2—Richard Rowe (0/2)
2—Colin Tizzard (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fakenham: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar
Southwell (A/W): Another new meeting