PLUMPTON – NOVEMBER 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £20.70 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (1.40): 3 (King Vince) & 4 (Parthenius)
Leg 2 (2.10): 7 (Roksana) & 4 (Naranja)
Leg 3 (2.40): 6 (Cucklington), 2 (Velvet Cognac) & 5 (Dontminddboys)
Leg 4 (3.10): 5 (Searching), 2 (Fixed Rate) & 3 (Vive Le Roi)
Leg 5 (3.40): 6 (Firmount Glen), 3 (Red Square Revival) & 1 (Ben Arthur)
Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Quiz Master) & 8 (Posh Totty)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: Four-year-olds have won eight renewals during the last decade whereby KING VINCE and PARTHENIUS are the first two names on the team sheet. There is obvious respect for Alan King’s WILLIAM HUNTER though as a self-confessed ‘anorak’, I feel compelled to stick to the four-year-old raiders LONG VINCE and PARTHENIUS for openers.
Favourite factor: Favourites have finished in the frame in six of the last seven contests, statistics which include five winners.
2.10: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 4-3 via eight renewals to date and ROKSANA and NARANJA should extend the lead between them in a race which should not prove difficult to win. Am I Appropriate should secure a place again despite finishing only second in a poor event at Southwell at the first time of asking.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six winners have scored at a top price of 10/3, stats which include three winners. Five of the last six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.
2.40: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five events which brings lone vintage representative CUCKLINGTON straight into the mix. Colin Tizzard’s Kayf Tara gelding should become competitive in this low grade affair, hopefully scoring at the main expense of VELEVET COGNAC and DONTMINDDBOYS. Plantagenet was ‘drifting like the proverbial barge’ on the exchanges at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include four winners. Level stake punters (backing favourites to £100 units) would sit + £157.50 to date.
3.10: Gary Moore has saddled five winners at this corresponding meeting in as many years (next best trainers have secured just two races) and having greeted the inaugural winner twelve months ago, Gary’s SEARCHING is expected to maintain the trainer’s hold on the race despite his long absence from the track. Others to consider include FIXED RATE and VIVE LE ROI. Ding Ding would be an interesting 20/1 chance but for completely losing form of late.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Gary Moore trained) 3/1 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
3/10—Ding Ding (good – good to soft – soft)
3.40: It is probably coincidental that FIRMOUNT GLEN is attempting to become the fourth consecutive eleven-year-old winner of this event though either way, Dan Skelton’s raider is very much the horse for money in the dead of night. Ten different trainers (and jockeys) have won this race during the study period which does not help to assess the contest, though I’m adding RED SQUARE REVIVAL and BEN ARTHUR into the equation on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won this race during the last decade, eight gold medallists have scored at a top price of 9/2. Five of the last six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/9—Frank N Fair (good)
4.10: QUIZ MASTER is the last of Colin Tizzard’s sextet on the card, though one of his likelier winners in my book, despite the fact that there is tons of money for POSH TOTTY at 6.30 this morning as I begin to wind up this analysis. Nothing else is attracting the eye this morning in the final leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have finished in the money via just two renewals to date. This includes one winner who was returned as one of the five 9/2 co favourites in 2015!
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Mab Dab (good to firm)
2/7—The Game Is A Foot (good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Plumpton card on Sunday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Colin Tizard (No previous runners at Plumpton this season)
4—David Bridgwater (1/6 – loss of 2 points)
3—Dan Skelton (1/4 – loss of 4 points)
3—Jamie Snowden (0/2)
2—Zoe Davidson (0/2)
2—Robin Dickin (No previous runners)
2—Chris Gordon (3/9 +7)
2—Anthony Honeyball (No previous runners)
2—Charlie Mann (1/1 +1)
2—Gary Moore (3/16 – loss of 7 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (2/6 +9)
+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
51 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell (NH): £22.20 – 7 races – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £3.70 – 3 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced (Racing abandoned after three races due to several injured jockeys)