EXETER – MAY 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £2,815.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 85.6% units went through – 4/9* & 5/1
Race 2: 1.7% of the remaining units when through – 20/1 (Win only) – (4/11)
Race 3: 35.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 3/1 (11/4)
Race 4: 24.6% of the remaining units went through – 7/4 (11/10)
Race 5: 40.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 7/4*
Race 6: 48.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 7/2 (7/4)
*Point of Order – Although there are no scheduled ‘win only’ races on the card, it’s as well to digest the fact that such races can have a dramatic effect on Placepot dividends, as was the case at the corresponding meeting twelve months ago.
The second race on the card was won by a 20/1 chance which in Placepot terms relating to the units that went up in smoke, turned out to be a 56/1 scenario! The ‘transparency’ was extended by the fact that two non-runners created the ‘win only’ event, units which were transferred onto the favourite via Placepot rules.
Similarly, the fourth race was won by the 7/4 second favourite, but the winner was selected by less than 25% of the clients who held remaining tickets at the time.
Just six runners are entered for the 7.50 event tonight whereby you should ensure that two runners (or more) are not withdrawn – before you place your Placepot wagers!
Tueday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (5.50): 10 (Secret Escape) & 12 (Tillythetank)
Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Champ) & 12 (Rockpoint)
Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Coningsby), 15 (Eddy) & 1 (Katy P)
Leg 4 (7.20): 1 (Marquis Of Carabas), 7 (Lip Service) & 9 (Innocent Girl)
Leg 5 (7.50): 5 (The Two Amigos) & 6 (Mistress Massini)
Leg 6 (8.20): 11 (Grey Diamond), 3 (Net De Treve) & 12 (Jeremiah James)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
5.50: The first two races on the card appear to be ‘match events’ if early indications from the exchanges are to be believed. It would certainly create a huge surprise/potentially massive Placepot dividend here if both SECRET ESCPAE and TILLYTHETANK finished out of the frame.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Exeter.
6.20: CHAMP and ROCKPOINT should similarly dominate the second contest on the card.
Favourite factor: Another new event on the Exeter programme but given the strength of the projected favourites/well fancied pair of horses in each of the first two races on the card, I’m not at all sure these contests will in in place twelve months hence.
6.50: EDDY has secured one gold medal and two of the silver variety via five assignments at this venue down the years and though I am invariable well wide of the mark relating to Sue Gardner’s runners (they win of I ignore them and flop when I take the plunge), 16/1 looks a tad over the top about EDDY who recorded the victory here on (good) going which should be in place tonight. That said, Tom Lacey came into this meeting last year having scored with two of his previous four runners and sure enough, the horse I focussed on (in the last race this evening) obliged at 5/2. Tom’s run of hot form is even better this year (current ratio of 16/33) and his only runner on the card runs in this event, namely CONINGSBY. My trio against the field is completed by KATY P who has the fast conditions in favour for another decent offering in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with six of the last eight gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1. Only one of the last six market leaders has secured a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Zero Grand (good to soft)
1/2—Just A Sting (good to soft)
1/2—Jully Les Buxy (soft)
7.20: Eight-year-olds won all four of the renewals when represented which suggests that the lone vintage representative MARQUIS OF CARABAS could outrun his current 12/1 odds which are in place with several bookmakers at the time of writing. Fergal O’Brien has wasted little time in entering LIP SERVICE now that the ground has improved, whilst INNOCENT GIRL has to be included for similar (ground) reasons alongside her impressive consistency. Harry Fry’s mare is a winner of three of her eight races on good ground thus far.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Casper King (soft)
1/5—Triple Chief (soft)
2/8—Bredon Hill Lad (soft & heavy)
7.50: As was the case in the previous race on the card, eight-year-olds have the best recent record here having secured four victories during the last decade. This fact will offer confidence to connections of Creative Inerta I’ll wager though according to form figures, both THE TWO AMIGOS and MISTRESS MASSINI will take plenty of kicking out of the Placepot frame. Indeed, the booking of William Biddick looks particularly significant relating to the latter named raider.
Favourite factor: The last eleven winners (in as many years) have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites.
8.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewal and the trade press prices of relevant declarations GREY DIAMOND and JEREMIAH JAMES should not put you off their respective chances in the last leg of our favourite wager. Indeed, their 10/1 and 16/1 quotes look wide of the mark with likelier starting prices of around 6/1 and 9/1 (respectively) looking entirely possible. NET DE TRVE and RUFIO are others to consider.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1. The last five favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.