LUDLOW – APRIL 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £94.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 51.3% units went through – 15/8* & 9/2
Race 2: 22.5% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 12/1 (5/2)
Race 3: 84.0% of the remaining units went through – 1/2* & 7/2
Race 4: 46.4% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 11/4*
Race 5: 59.4% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* - 25/1 – 9/1
Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 5/4* - 33/1 – 9/1
Monday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (2.20): 12 (Weebill) & 9 (Shalakar)
Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Western Climate), 6 (Goohar) & 7 (According To Harry)
Leg 3 (3.25): 3 (Peruvian Bleu), 4 (Raise A Spark) & 2 (I’m A Game Changer)
Leg 4 (3.55): 6 (Ifandbutwhynot), 2 (Cut The Corner) & 4 (Rock On Rocky)
Leg 5 (4.30): 2 (Molly Carew), 9 (Diva Du Maquis) & 5 (Goodgirlteresa)
Leg 6 (5.05): 2 (Full Throttle) & 1 (Forever My Friend)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: Although there is plenty of positive money in the exchange queue to back BATTLE OF IDEAS at around the 8/1 mark, the general price on offer is 6/1 whereby Colin Tizzard’s raider is an each way player at best from my viewpoint. More obvious winners are WEEBILL and SHALAKAR, though Venetia Williams (trains the latter named entry) will have connections doing rain dances this morning I’ll wager!
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite duly obliged, as did four market leaders in the Placepot events on the card by an aggregate of 89 lengths!
2.50: The ground will hopefully have dried out enough for the three course winners in the field to offer Placepot investors plenty of hope in a race which should not prove difficult to win. WESTERN CLIMATE, GOOHAR and ACCORDING TO HARRY are listed in order to preference to get us through to the third leg of our favourite wager. Fourth Act is the class act in the field if any thoroughbred here can be used in those terms but horses who have run well with blinkers on for the first time do not have a good record in showing similar enthusiasm next time up according to my recollections from following the sport for well over fifty years. In terms of runs/wins, Colin Tizzard’s raider should be a 13/2 chance via the percentages, not 5/2 as is currently the general offer.
Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites has finished in the frame thus far by winning the relevant event at odds of 13/8.
Record of the three course winners in the second race:
1/2—Western Climate (good)
1/4—Goohar (good to soft)
1/3—According To Harry (good)
3.25: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests and with vintage representative PERUVIAN BLEU boasting a 3/3 ratio at the track, you will not be surprised to learn that the Nick Williams raider is the first name on my team sheet. There will be worse outsiders on the card than RAISE A SPARK I fancy, whilst I’M A GAME CHANGER completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 6/1, statistics which include three winners. That said, only one of the other six market leaders additionally snared a Placepot position during the period.
Record of the two course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—I’m A Game Changer – good to soft)
3/3—Peruvian Bleu (3 x good)
3.55: Last year’s winner IFANDBUTWHYNOT carries six pounds less this time around despite racing off a two pound higher mark, stats which demand that I include Danny Cook’s mount into the equation. CUT THE CORNER represents Alistair Ralph who has saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect, whilst ROCK ON ROCKY also boasts win and place claims.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have secured gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
Record of the two course winners in the field:
2/5—Colin’s Brother (2 x good to soft)
1/2—Ifandbutwynot (good to soft) – won this race last year
4.30: Neil Mulholland is back among the winners and the popular trainer looks to have quite a strong hand here via his two entries, namely MOLLY CAREW and GOODGIRLTERESA. If Neil and his team are to be denied, DIVA DU MAQUIS appears to be the potential spoiler in the line up.
Favourite factor: This is a new race (for mares) on the Ludlow card.
5.05: I have only left myself two options here on a competitive card if we hold back from breaking into the ‘family reserves’ in order to appease our Placepot appetite. Last year’s winner FULL THROTTLE and FOREVER MY FRIEND have edged out Diplomate Sivola and Queen Olivia (represents value for money from an each way perspective) accordingly.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have claimed Placepot positions via two renewals to date, though we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Forever My Friend (good to firm)
1/1—Full Throttle (good to soft) – won this race last year
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.