PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £76.90 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (1.55): 8 (Eyecatcher) & 2 (Austrian School)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Rastacap) & 1 (Camacho Chief)
Leg 3 (2.55): 4 (Mushaired), 3 (Me Too Nagasaki) & 1 (The Grape Escape)
Leg 4 (3.25): 1 (Transpennine Star), 3 (Gran Maestro) & 2 (La Fritillaire)
Leg 5 (3.55): 12 (Mr Cool Cash), 2 (Working Class) & 8 (Beverley Bullet)
Leg 6 (4.25): 5 (Duke’s Girl), 2 (Miramar) & 3 (Snookered)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: The only money in the dead of night has been for the Simon Crisford trained EYECATCHER and to a lesser degree AUSTRIAN SCHOOL representing Mark Johnston. Richard Hannon only saddles two runners on the card and though probably no match for the first named pair, BOMBSHELL BAY might sneak a place at a double figure price on behalf of the yard.
Favourite factor: This opening event is a new race on the Pontefract card.
2.25: 12 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom four horses (of six) in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries, given that FEEBS is ridden by seven pound claimer Harrison Shaw. This fits into my plan anyway, as RASTACAP and COMACHE CHIEF were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.
Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.
2.55: Seven of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and at 5/1 at the time of writing, Richard Fahey’s soft ground course winner MUSHAIRED could be viewed as an each way ‘bet to nothing’, especially if all eight runners stand their ground. Jeremy Noseda has sent ME TOO NAGASAKI on a long journey all alone in his horsebox, which suggests that this Iffraaj colt (winner on heavy ground) will go close to winning. That said, Richard Hannon’s other runners on the card is THE GRAPE ESCAPE who cannot be left out of the Placepot equation. All three horses mentioned in despatches hail from the superior weight sector according to the relevant trend.
Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 20 years, whilst ‘only’ ten of the 21 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions. That said, the biggest priced winners during the last six year was returned at just 11/2.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
3.25: LA FRITILLAIRE returns to defend his crown and with the ground in his favour, 14/1 will not be his price on Monday, on that we can be sure. Whether James Given’s five-year-old will be able to follow up his latest course victory remains to be seen as he has only put back to back victories together once via his five wins to date. TRANSPENNINE STAR was thwarted by the minimum margin by the first named raider the last day and thanks to a claimer on board, the Michael Dods top-weight meets the rival on almost the same terms. Money for GRAN MAESTRO would give the race a different look completely though as regular readers know, it makes little difference to yours truly who retires to the bar in double quick time in these repetitive staying races at Pontefract. Whose turn is it to win today?
Favourite factor: The two inaugural joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame before last year’s 2/1 market leader was beaten by a head. Both winners to date were returned at 14/1.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/6—La Fritillaire (good to soft & soft)
1/1—Lady Of Yue (good)
2/29—Riptide (good & good to firm)
2/19—Tuscan Gold (good & good to firm)
2/20—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)
3.55: MR COOL CASH won one of the two divisions of this event last year though that said, Richard Guest’s five year-old has won only one of his subsequent 19 starts, albeit of today’s mark of 66. Somehow or another, all seventeen potential runners have stood their ground thus far, though as I am writing this before stable staff have woken up, there is plenty of time from that scenario to change. Hopefully four places will be up for grabs (don’t bet on it) though either way, my Placepot trio is completed by WORKING CLASS and BEVERLEY BULLET.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, stats which include one (11/4**) winner.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/14—Kiwi Bay (2 x good to firm)
1/3—Beverley Bullet (soft)
1/3—Mr Cool Cash (good to soft)
2/10—Trinity Star (good & good to firm)
1/3—Ravenhoe (good to firm)
4.25: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones and the pick of the relevant seven entries will hopefully prove to be DUKE’S GIRL, MIRAMAR and SNOOKERED. That said, Cornerstone Lad sits just 16 ounces below the superior weight sector and there will be worse 10/1 chances contesting races at Pontefract Park this afternoon I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: The ten favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last five winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Monday followed by their rations at the track this season + level stake profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Richard Fahey (9/75 – loss of 23 points)
5—Mark Johnston (6/43 – loss of 24 points)
4—Michael Dods (1/26 – loss of 9 points)
4—David O’Meara (8/43 +1)
3—Tim Easterby (8/40 +4)
3—Micky Hammond (2/25 – loss of 7 points)
2—Karl Burke (2/22 – loss of 15 points)
2—Mick Easterby (4/21 +4)
2—Brian Ellison (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
2—Les Eyre (1/12 – loss of 7 points)
2—Richard Guest (2/14 +17)
2—Richard Hannon (1/1 +3)
2—Michael Scudamore (0/4)
2—Richard Whitaker (6/10 +24)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Salisbury: £20.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Windsor: £8.10 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Musselburgh: This is a new meeting on the fixture calendar