WINDSOR – APRIL 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £285.90 (8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Lethal Lunch), 2 (Give Em A Clump) & 4 (May Remain)
Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Radjash), 3 (Bristol Missile) & 2 (Breaking Bread)
Leg 3 (3.00): 9 (Perfect Quest) & 10 (Zorba The Greek)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Saumur) & 3 (Safira Menina)
Leg 5 (4.00): 2 (Know Your Limit) & 6 (Claire’s Secret)
Leg 6 (4.30): 2 (Things Happen), 8 (Golden Guest) & 6 (Sakurajima)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Whatever jungle drums are beating this morning appear to be coming from the LETHAL LUNCH reservation and Richard Hannon seemingly has a decent chance of starting the year at the alternative royal venue in good order. Richard will not have been pleased with his 11% strike rate at Windsor last year, a venue which his father dominated for so many years, especially in the two-year-old sector. Rock Of Estonia is another who should figure prominently though at the available odds at the time of writing, GIVE EM A CLUMP and MAY REMAIN offer better Placepot value I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 15/8 favourite found one rival a short head too good for him in a short field event. New readers might like to learn that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify.
2.30: There are some interesting newcomers in the field and BRISTOL MISSILE might prove to offer the best value, given that Richard Hannon suggested this time last year that this was a “real good looker”, intimating at the time that we would not see the horse out until this year. John Gosden can rarely be left out of the three-year-old equation whereby BREAKING BREAD will know most of what is required at the first time asking. The pick of the experienced runners in the line up is likely to be RADJASH whose 9/2 quote in the trade press was fanciful to say the least. BREAKING BREAD would be a topical winner in ‘holy week’!
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via the last 14 years during which time, eleven gold medallists winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less. Eleven of the fifteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
3.00: The bottom pair in the weights might struggle to win, given that the four gold medallists thus far have carried a minimum burden of 8-13. Jamie Spencer has some interesting rides on the card and I think it’s fair to assume that you can dismiss the 12/1 quote about ZORBA THE GREEK in the trade press. As an Odds Compiler myself (for Coral before the abacus was invented) I am not knocking the lads and lasses who have to offer prices 24 hours+ before races are scheduled but Ed Vaughan’s raider might be sent off at half that price this afternoon. PERFECT QUEST is the other horse catching my eye at the time of writing, especially with Clive Cox already having sent out a winner on turf.
Favourite factor: The four results have been split down the middle to date, with two favourites having won their respective events, accompanied by two successful 16/1 chances. The two market leaders that failed to win also missed out on Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third race on the card:
1/2—Outback Blue (good)
1/1—Tom’s Rock (good to soft)
1/1—Della Valle (soft)
3.30: Five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timers and the only surprise is that there are just two vintage representatives this time around, hovering at the 4/1 mark before the form book is consulted. The relevant pair are named as SAUMUR and SAFIRA MENINA who hail from the right end of the handicap, given that four of the last seven winners have carried 9-3 or more to victory. The reserve nomination is awarded to CAPTAIN PEACOCK.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won two of the last three renewals, whilst three of the four favourites in the race snared Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
2/7—Moojaned (good to firm & soft)
4.00: High on numbers but short on potential winners, it’s worth noting that six of the thirteen runners are freely quoted between 20/1 & 50/1 this morning, with only Justice Frederick making any appeal from the sextet. More logical winners include CLAIRE’S SECRET and KNOW YOUR LIMIT. The latter named raider hails from Ed Walker’s yard and it’s worth noting that the thick end of a third of Ed’s winners during the last five years have gained their victories between eight and nine furlongs.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the money via three renewals, statistics which include one (7/2**) winner.
4.30: THINGS HAPPEN looks hopelessly exposed compared to some rivals here but with David Evans having sent out plenty of early season winners at Windsor last year, Adam Kirby’s mount pushes his way into the Placepot mix, especially as Adam is the only pilot to have won on the three-year-old via eleven assignments thus far. George Margarson will have been horrified by recording a 0/15 ratio at the venue last year as Windsor (alongside Yarmouth) are the tracks that have served the trainer best in the past. George saddles GOLDEN GUEST (ignore the 16/1 quote in the trade press) in an attempt to put the record straight early doors, whilst SAKURAJIMA appeals as the speculative outsider to consider if you are ‘on the chase’ at this stage of proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, where the same stat apply. Two of the four favourites have finished in the money via three renewals, statistics which include one (7/2**) winner.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track in 2016 + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—David Evans (7/50 – loss of 1 point)
4—Jim Boyle (4/18 – Profit of 27 points)
4—Richard Hannon (8/71 (loss of 16 points)
4—Rod Millman (2/24 – loss of 16 points)
4—Gary Moore (1/27 – loss of 25 points)
3—Mick Channon (1/26 – loss of 24 points)
3—Charlie Hills (7/27 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Richard Hughes (5/27 – Profit of 13 points)
3—William Knight (3/19 – loss of 8 points)
3—Jonathan Portman (2/20 – loss of 15 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (0/6)
2—John Best (0/4)
2—John Bridger (1/31 – loss of 27 points)
2—Clive Cox (13/50 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Keith Dalgleish (No runners last season)
2—Jeremy Gask (0/7)
2—Chris Gordon (No runners last season)
2—Ron Hodges (1/8 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Dean Ivory (3/31 – loss of 10 points)
2—Sylvester Kirk (3/14 – loss of 1 point)
2—George Margarson (0/15)
2—Pam Sly (0/4)
2—John Ryan (0/8)
2—Martin Smith (0/2)
2—Joseph Tuite (1/26 – loss of 9 points)
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
102 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Redcar: £2,182.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Kelso: £85.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced