WINDSOR – APRIL 11
Windsor overview for Monday:
Before you jump on the Mark Johnston two-year-old train in the opening contest, it's as well to consider that Mark's eleven juveniles at Windsor in the last five years have all been beaten. Richard Hannon has saddled sixteen 2YO winners (19% strike rate) in barely half the time by comparison. 2YO records for the season to date: 4/8 Mark Johnston - 2/5 Richard Hannon - 1/7 Tom Dascombe - 0/1 Joseph Tuite - 0/13 David Evans. The other three trainers saddle their first juveniles of the year.
Sir Michael Stoute failed to saddle a winner at the alternative royal venue last year for the first time since the old queen died I'll wager, though three of Michael's last six runners have won. That said, John Gosden saddles his only runner at the track on the Monday in which Michael's two declarations have been made, with John boasting a Windsor ratio of 6/14 last season. Add Ralph Beckett's raider into the mix in the 3.50 contest and we have an interesting contest to consider, given that four of Ralph's last twelve runners have obliged.
The really interesting aspect of the meeting however concerns trainer Ivan Furtado who only saddled one runner at Windsor last season which won at odds of 5/4. Silverstre De Sousa has been booked aboard both of Ivan's runners, boasting figures of 6/15 for the trainer in recent times.
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £413.60 ( favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Mr Scaramanga) & 7 (Poet's Society)
Leg 2 (2.20): 3 (Justice Angel) 6 (Ower Fly) & 7 (Stormflower)
Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (Rex Bell) & 2 (Ballet Concerto)
Leg 4 (3.20): 7 (Just Be Lucky), 9 (Sheer Honesty) & 3 (Uncle Dermot)
Leg 5 (3.50): 7 (Refulgence) & 5 (Perfect Quest)
Leg 6 (4.20): 2 (Beatbybeatbybeat), 3 (Sir Roderic) & 5 (Girl With A Pearl)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: It's as well to take in the 'overview' above before piling your 'heard earned' into the race, especially when taking the negative Mark Johnston (POET'S SOCIETY) figures into account. That said, the sire of Richard Hannon's raider (MR SCARAMANGA) is Sir Percy who (to a fashion) has failed to light up the stallion scene with his juveniles, despite the fact that he won all four starts as a two-year-old, prior to winning the Epsom Derby the following year. It's interesting to note that the Derby was the only race that Sir Percy won via six assignments after his juvenile year was completed. Only 29% of his stock have won as juveniles to date, 'boasting' an 11% strike rate into the bargain. As you might guess, POET'S SOCIETY is a Poet's Voice representative, the sire having finished third on his first start before winning two of his four subsequent races at a two-year-old. As already suggested in the overview, Tom Dascombe (FULL INTENTION) is the only other trainer to have saddled a juvenile winner this season.
Favourite factor: This is a a (juvenile novice) contest on the card with which to open the year at Windsor or Monday.
2.20: OWER FLY is the obvious starting point given that Richard Hannon's season usually begins at this meeting regarding his constant flow of winners. Richard's raider won his only race on fast ground however whereby nothing is set in stone in what could prove to be a trappy event. The point his favour though is that Richard's Pastoral Pursuit raider races off a five pound lower mark compared his last outing, notwithstanding the ten pound claiming jockey for good measure. Course winner STORMFLOWER is a proven mudlark, whilst FURIANT has won with moisture in the ground. JUSTICE ANGEL represents David Elsworth who boasts figures of 5/17 since the start of February, whilst the booking of Silvestre De Sousa adds confidence, given that he has scored on both of his rides for the stable in 2016.
Favourite factor: The first two market leaders finished well out with the washing before last year's success 5/2 favourite brought some relief to punters.
Windsor record of course winners in the second race:
2.50: Sir Michael Stoute has secured two of the last nine renewals, though as you will have read in the overview, Michael had a season to forget at Windsor last year. His runners have struck form of late, though given John Gosden's 43% strike rate at the track in 2015, REX BELL is preferred to Michael's pair BALLET CONCERTO and Aristocles, albeit Ryan Moore's mount (listed in capitals) will be added into my Placepot mix alongside MOUNTAIN BELL.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have prevailed via the last 13 during which time, ten winners were returned at odds of 9/2 or less. Ten of the thirteen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
3.20: Four-year-olds landed the 252/1 Exacta forecast in the first running of this event last year, albeit via 46% of the total number of contenders. Interestingly, Ivan Furtado's raider JUST BE LUCKY is one of just four relevant entries this time around, especially when digesting the stats in the overview detail above. JUST BE LUCKY was only beaten half a length on soft ground back in Ireland last year, whilst five lengths separated him and the winner on similar ground on his seasonal debut at Redcar two weeks ago. Fellow four-year-old representative SHEER HONESTY has won under very soft/heavy conditions before, whilst others for the overnight equation include Brendan Powell's pair UNCLE DERMOT and DARK AMBER.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 5/1 favourite duly obliged.
Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
3.50: REFULGENCE could be the answer to what appears to be a difficult race to assess. It could be argued that Marco Botti's raider was over exposed as a juvenile, especially as Azamour stock tend to improve a great deal in their second year at school. Certainly that appears to be the case with REFULGENCE who has run three sound races in defeat in 2016. PERFECT QUEST and FUNNY OYSTER are alternative types to consider.
Favourite factor: Last year's 9/2 market leader could only finish 10/14 in the inaugural contest, albeit the frame was filled by horses found in the front six in the betting at 5/1-8/1-8/1.
4.20: Providing that not too much rain falls between the time of writing and flag fall, BEATBYBEATBYBEAT is offered a chance here having won under yielding conditions in the soft and soggy past. Ismail Mohammed saddled a winner the other day, whilst Thomas Brown remains good value for his three pound claim. SIR RODERIC has contested three of his four races at this venue and arguably ran his best race at the track with plenty of moisture in the turf. Ed Dunlop (GIRL WITH A PEARL) has saddled five of his last fourteen runners to winning effect during which time, five other representatives finished 'in the three'.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats applies.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
5--Rod Millman (4/24 at Windsor last season)
5--Brendan Powell (0/8)
4--Jonathan Portman (2/25)
3--John Bridger (3/37)
3--Tony Carroll (2/31)
3--Paul Cole (2/17)
3--Richard Hannon (13/94)
3--Mark Johnston (1/14)
2--George Baker (0/14)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/5)
2--Robert Eddery (2/17)
2--Ivan Furtado (1/1)
2--David Menusier (0/2)
2--Ismail Mohammed (0/10)
2--Gary Moore (4/36)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (0/18)
+ 41 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
86 declared runners