WINDSOR – APRIL 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £180.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (4.50): 6 (Zig Zag Girl), 2 (Ocean Temptress) & 1 (Fastnet Spin)
Leg 2 (5.20): 10 (Jaarih), 1 (Stake Acclaim) & 11 (Elusivity)
Leg 3 (5.50): 1 (Baadi) & 12 (Zorlu)
Leg 4 (6.20): 2 (Ice Lord) & 1 (Navigate)
Leg 5 (6.50): 4 (Goldslinger), 5 (Brandon Castle) & 1 (Starwatcher)
Leg 6 (7.20): 1 (Epsom Day) & 2 (October Storm)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
4.50: Given the stats below, it would seem churlish in the extreme to ignore the David Evans runner FASTNET SPIN, especially as David's only two winners during the last fortnight have been gained in the two-year-old sector. That said, FASTNET SPIN failed to make any impact on his debut but then again, jockeys that were thwarted by two Mark Johnston juvenile 'machines' that day at Kempton were not hard on their horses after the writing was on the wall after only a furlong or two. I was quite surprised to find that Mick Channon has only saddled three juvenile winners here at Windsor in the last five years, though ZIG ZAG GIRL is very much part of my Placepot plans on Monday at the very least. Silvestre De Sousa boasts a fine record for Mick in recent times and his 27% strike rate aboard thirteen juvenile winners for the trainers have produced level stake profits bordering on 35 points. John Ryan (OCEAN TEMPTRESS) has started the season well, though we have to overlook his poor 5% strike rate with juveniles during the last five years.
Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings.
Trainer record with two-year-olds at Windsor during the last five years:
10/51--David Evans (Fastnet Spin)
0/2--John Ryan (Ocean Temptress)
1/10--John Bridger (Crystal Secret)
First ever runner at Windsor--Steph Hollinshead (She's Rosanna)
1/33--Stan Moore (To Have A Dream)
3/57--Mick Channon (Zig Zag Girl)
5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals whereby JAARIH and STAKE ACCLAIM are two to home in on from my viewpoint, albeit only from a Placepot perspective. This is a poor event and no mistake whereby 'win money' will be well and truly tucked away for other races on the card. Others to consider (if you must) include last year's winner MIDNIGHT RIDER and ELUSIVITY. A turn-around of no less than 14 spots in favour of ELUSIVITY has to be taken into account on last year's running, given that Conor Dore's mount was only beaten half a length by MIDNIGHT RIDER twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Windsor record of course winners in the second race on the card:
1/10--Midnight Rider (won this race last year)
5.50 Charlie Fellowes has won with his last two runners (20/1 & 7/1), though it is highly unlikely that bookmakers will be as generous regarding the chance of stable representative BAADI on this occasion. Runner up on his last two starts via just three assignments to date, Charlie's Dansili raider was contesting soft ground at Nottingham in May when only beaten two lengths. The pair of three-year-olds down at the bottom of the least cannot be discounted in this grade/company, whereby both ZORLU and PERSAVERANCE (preferred in the order as listed) are included in the overnight Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: The two (4/5 & 4/6) favourites thus far have duly obliged.
6.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eight renewals whilst horses have carried 9-4 or more to winning effect five times during the same period. Out of interest, four-year-olds have completed a ‘clean sweep’ of all three toteplacepot positions in the three previous years before vintage representatives finished first and third last year at 7/1 & 14/1. The first named horses in my analysis have won in each of the last two years (Huntsman Close & Divine - won at 20/1 and 7/1 respectively) and whilst we might not be quite as well off regarding prices this time around, the likes of ICE LORD and NAVIGATE should secure at least a toteplacepot position between them. The other vintage representative is awarded the overnight reserve nomination, namely FLOWERS ON VENUS. It defies belief that just three trainers have noticed the 'edge' in this contest, with vintage representatives around the 11/4 mark to extend their great record in the race before the form book is consulted.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders have reached the frame via ten renewals to date, statistics which include four winners.
Windsor record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
3/7--Links Drive Lady
6.50: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals and both of this year’s entries (GOLDSLINGER and BRANDON CASTLE) initially catch the eye in the penultimate leg of our favourite bet, as did last year's 11/1 winner Carthage. I am hoping that the ground dries out a tad, given that GOLDSLINGER (winner of four of his last seven races) has won under soft conditions, but was buried on heavy ground last time out. The weather forecast is (seemingly) in our favour at the time of writing. There is less confidence behind BRANDON CASTLE who still sits twelve spots higher than his only winning mark to date via eighteen sorties. Accordingly, I am adding heavy ground winner STARWATCH into the equation.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (7/2***) winner.
Windsor record of course winners in the fifth event:
7.20: Six of the last eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 which counts against the bottom four horses in the field. Last year's 11/4 winner (Sparring) was my selection and hoping that I can follow up to decent effect, EPSOM DAY is expected to lead home OCTOBER STORM and (possibly) Richard Hannon's only runner on the card, namely HOWARDIAN HILLS.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won this event on five occasions during the last eleven years during which time, eleven of the fifteen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
Course winners in the seventh race (7.50) on the card - beyond my Placepot analysis:
Other stat for the 7.50 event: Last year's inaugural 5/2 favourite prevailed.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
6--Dean Ivory (0/1 at Windsor this season)
5--David Evans (1/1)
3--John Bridger (0/3)
3--Mick Channon (0/1)
3--Chris Dwyer (--)
3--Joseph Tuite (0/1)
2--Patrick Chamings (1/1)
2--Jane Chapple-Hyam (--)
2--Conor Dore (0/1)
2--Ron Harris (--)
2--John O'Shea (--)
2--Malcolm Saunders (--)
2--Derek Shaw (--)
+ 34 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
71 declared runners
Placepot dividends from last year's corresponding meetings + trainer stats:
Hexham: £8.50 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Newton Abbot: £54.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced) - Paul Nicholls: 5/4 double on the card
Pontefract: £43.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced) - Richard Fahey: 13/2 double
New meeting - Dividend details from latest meeting (March 28):
Huntingdon: £90.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Winning trainers from last year's corresponding meeting with runners today:
Mick Channon (7/1) - 3 runners on Monday
Geoff Deacon (5/2*) - 1 runner
Richard Hannon (3/1*) - 1 runner
Rod Millman (4/1) - 1 runner