WINDSOR – APRIL 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £196.00 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 4 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (4.45): 5 (Daddies Girl), 3 (Aquadabra) & 11 (Mother Of Dragons)
Leg 2 (5.15): 1 (Dark Shot), 8 (Secretfact) & 3 (Stake Acclaim)
Leg 3 (5.45): 8 (Next Challenge), 15 (Wasatch Range) & 10 (Ply)
Leg 4 (6.15): 7 (Cold Snap), 11 (Pettochside) & 1 (Little Palaver)
Leg 5 (6.45): 2 (Mr Khalid) & 4 (Lime And Lemon)
Leg 6 (7.15): 5 (Desert Cross) & 2 (Askari)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stake:
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
4.45: There are not too many meetings during the course of the year in which Richard Hannon is not represented at Windsor, though this is one of them. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that Rod Millman could saddled his fourth winner via his fourteenth runner of late with DADDIES GIRL who ran well on debut here two weeks ago. Rod stunned racegoers (including The Queen) at Newbury on Saturday when his 100/1 chance Duke Of Bronte scored, though DADDIES GIRL is likely to be sent off at around the 11/4 mark this evening. There has been spits and spots of money for Firenza Rose overnight at a massive price, albeit more logical winners include AQUADABRA and MOTHER OF DRAGONS, if logic has a part to play in the juvenile sector.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite secured a Placepot position by finished second in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
5.15: Four-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals whereby DARK SHOT and SECRTETFACT are two to home in on from my viewpoint, albeit only from a Placepot perspective. This is a poor event and no mistake whereby 'win money' will be well and truly tucked away for other races on the card. If the vintage trend is blown away this time around, last year’s winner STAKE ACCLAIM could be the joker in the pact though like DARK SHOT, some moisture in the ground would have been preferable. If asked for a tentative selection I would opt for Secretfact.
Favourite factor: Just two (15/8 & 5/2) market leaders have obliged to date, whilst only three of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/2—Dark Shot (soft)
1/2—Stake Acclaim (soft)
1/9—Stormflower (good to soft)
5.45: Plenty of top stables are represented here though the jungle drums appear to be beating for NEXT CHALLENGE and WASATCH RANGE more than most. Representing the powerful yards of Saeed Bin Suroor and John Gosden respectively, both horses demand great respect, though market confidence behind PLY is growing at the time of writing whereby the trade press quote of 11/2 appears fanciful.
Favourite factor: The three (2/5, 4/5 & 4/6) favourites thus far have duly obliged.
6.15: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last nine renewals whilst horses have carried 9-2 or more to winning effect six times during the same period. Out of interest, four-year-olds completed a ‘clean sweep’ of all three toteplacepot positions in the three previous years before vintage representatives finished first and third two years back at 7/1 & 14/1. The only horse to possess ticks in both of the trend boxes is the appropriately named COLD SNAP given the weather forecast I have just heard. Much cooler weather is (seemingly) set to arrive from the north over the next few days but the Medicean gelding could offer a warm glow for William Jarvis and connections. Robert Winston takes the ride aboard the course and distance winner who offers value for money at around 11/2 as I pen this column. Watch out for any money for LITTLE PALAVA from a win and place perspective, whilst Josephine Gordon (has started the season on great form) could get a tune out of PETTOCHSIDE I’ll wager. Last year’s winner Englishman receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders have reached the frame via ten renewals to date, statistics which include four winners.
6.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and vintage representatives MR KHALID and LIME AND LEMON should have this race wrapped up between them from a Placepot perspective. We have to take fitness on trust as far as Roger Charlton’s Pour Moi gelding MR KHALID is concerned, though there is a chance that he could dictate from the front here, just as he did at Nottingham at the second time of asking before scooting seven lengths clear for an impressive victory. LIME AND LEMON has already been out this term and should strip fitter for his Doncaster assignment in which he was only beaten two lengths despite finishing fifth.
Favourite factor: Five of the eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (7/2***) winner.
7.15: Seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which counts against the bottom four horses in the field, stats which include the fancied Eugenic. This self-confessed ‘anorak’ will stick to his tendencies however by nominating DESERT CROSS and ASKARI to land the Placepot dividend between them, if we were still live going into the finale of course.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won this event on five occasions during the last twelve years during which time, twelve of the seventeen market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed winning trainer ratios at the track this season with starting prices after one meeting at Windsor:
4—Rod Millman (1/4 @ 7/1)
2—Roger Charlton (1/1 @ 12/1)
2—Clive Cox (2/2 @ 17/2 & 8/1 = 84/1 double)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton
2—Sir Michael Stoute (1/1 @ 6/4*)
1 runner for Charlie Hills (1/2 @5/1)
1 runner for Joseph Tuite (1/1 @ 7/1)
+ 36 other trainers who also saddle just one runner on the card
84 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Pontefract: £454.30 – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Warwick: £261.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £ 249.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield (A/W): £1,207.40 – 7 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced