WINDSOR - AUGUST 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £41.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.30): 8 (Eugenic), 5 (Miss Tiger Lily) & 2 (Jersey Jewel)
Leg 2 (6.00): 9 (Hathfa) & 3 (Belleverde)
Leg 3 (6.30): 2 (Balliol), 7 (Toni's A Star) & 6 (Stormflower)
Leg 4 (7.00): 3 (September Stars), 6 (Philadelphia) & 1 (Harlequin Striker)
Leg 5 (7.30): 11 (Fang) & 6 (Escalating)
Leg 6 (8.00): 7 (Julia Dream) & 5 (Divine Quickstep)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Windsor - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.30: Regular readers will know what to expect from yours truly outside of trends for this amateur event. I trust to 'jockeys' above all else in these contests, a 'system' which paid off handsomely two years back as my three against the field yielded at 14/1 winner, followed up last year's 7/2 gold medallist. A lot of more familiar names are missing on this occasion though, with the rider aboard EUGENIC possibly standing out from the card having ridden 15 winners under rules. MISS TIGER LILY and NAFAATH are feared most though with four-year-olds having won three of the last four contests, lone vintage representative JERSEY JEWEL is also added into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Five of the last six favourites have finished in the money, statistics which which include one successful (4/1) favourite.
Record of the course winner in the opening contest:
2/14--Royal Etiquette (2 x good to soft)
6.00: It's unusual for a juvenile event at Windsor not to include a Richard Hannon runner, especially when the trainer has another entry on the card. I'm wondering if there is any connection with Richard Hughes, given that the ex-jockey rode so many winners for the yard. Richard saddles his Dark Angel raider HATHFA and if you are into 'conspiracy theories', perhaps the 'old team' have been speaking to each other, forming a conclusion that HATHFA could take some beating. Either way, BELLEVARDE and HIGHLAND DREAM are others who should also figure prominently. BAHAMADAM is worth watching with an eye for the future.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, whilst seven favourites have won during the last 16 renewals.
6.30: Four-year-olds have won the seven of the last eleven renewals of this contest, with course winner BALLIOL and TONI'S A STAR representing the vintage this time around. Both horses will be included in my Placepot permutation (the pair are listed in order of overnight preference), possibly joined by three-year-old course and distance winner STORMFLOWER. From a win perspective, BALLIOL would prefer the ground to remain on the fast side, whereas the chance of STORMFLOWER would increase if some of the forecast 'scattered showers' arrive on cue.
Favourite factor: Just three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 18 years, whilst 12 of the 19 jollies have reached the frame in the process. Three 16/1 winners have been returned in the last 13 years alongside the 25/1 gold medallist in 2013, whilst a 12/1 chance snared the spoils five years ago.
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/1--Balliol (good to firm)
1/7--Stormflower (good to soft)
1/3--John Joiner (soft)
7.00: 13 of the last 16 winners have carried 8-12 or more whilst three-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, the vintage not having been represented four years ago. Junior raiders are 4/5 to win the race before the form book is consulted, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be SEPTEMBER STARS and PHILADELPHIA who are listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing. That said, I'm not about to put a line through the chance of HARLEQUIN STRIKER, especially as Dean Ivory had saddled six of his last fourteen runners to winning effect at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the study period, whilst 12 of the 22 favourites have reached the frame.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/2--Harlequin Striker (soft)
1/1--September Stars (good to firm)
7.30: Three-year-olds boast a better record than most in this event and William Jarvis is the 'clued up trainer' on this occasion, having declared his 'junior' representative (hat trick seeking) FANG. That said, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in the contest, whereby ESCALATED and STAKE ACCLAIM are added into the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen favourites have reached the frame to date (three winners), with other gold medallists recorded have been recorded at 25/1-25/1-20/1-16/1-8/1-7/1-13/2-3/1.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/3--Musical Comedy (good to soft)
4/10--Links Drive Lady (3 x soft + good to soft)
1/1--Stake Acclaim (soft)
1.5--Morache Music (soft)
8.00: Top notch stables win this race pure and simple whereby DIVINE QUICKSTEP (Sir Michael Stoute) and JULIA DREAM (William Haggas) should figure prominently in a race which should not prove difficult to win. This pair should see us safely through to win the dividend if we were live going into the final leg of our favourite wager, though I would not get involved from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (two winners), with the 2010 ’jolly’ having been withdrawn just prior to the off before a new market could be formed.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
5--Dean Ivory (3/23 at Windsor this season - winners at 10/1 - 9/2 - 3/1)
3--David Evans (6/28 - Priced between 2/1* & 14/1)
3--Eve Johnson Houghton (1/7 - winner at 4/1)
2--Tony Carroll (0/13)
2--Mick Channon (1/20 - winner at 4/5*)
2--Clive Cox (10/34 - Priced between 4/9* & 12/1)
2--Peter Crate (0/2)
2--James Fanshawe (1/6 - winner at 3/1*)
2--John Jenkins (1/8 - winner at 9/1)
2--Rod Millman (2/19 - winners at 3/1** twice)
2--Gary Moore (0/18)
2--Hughie Morrison (2/14 - winners at 14/1 & 2/1)
+ 41 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
70 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £ 71.40 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced - 45/1 for Phil Kirby on last year's card - 2 runners declared
Ripon: £ 25.10 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 placed - 28/1 double for Richard Fahey last year + David O'Meara's 32/1 twosome
New fixture at Kempton
Windsor overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 6.00
0/24--Eve Johnson Houghton (Bahamadam)
1/14--Hugo Palmer (Bee Case)
0/1--James Fanshawe (Belleverde)
0/11--Stuart Williams (Cuban Isabela)
No runners--Heather Main (Fair Seline)
3/15--Gary ore (Gaia Princess)
0/4--Brett Johnson (Ginger Truffle)
4/65--Mick Channon (Harlequin Rose)
1/6--Rochard Hughes (Hathfa)
6/34--Clive Cox (Highland Dream)
1/4--John Jenkins (Melo Magic)
12/56--David Evans (Mezyan)
3/27--Roger Charlton (Miss Anticipation)
1/14--Jim Boyle (Moonstone Rock)
No runners--Robyn Brisland (Queensbrydge)
0/1--Zoe Davison (Venetian Prospect)