EPSOM - AUGUST 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,179.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Leg 1 (2.05): 6 (Prerogative) & 3 (Firefright)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Sirahjia), 2 (Pink Martini) & 4 (Tikthebox)
Leg 3 (3.15): 8 (Olivia Fallow), 9 (Waseem Faris) & 7 (King Crimson)
Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Fire Fighting) & 3 (Maverick Wave)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Hubertas) & 7 (Roy Rocket)
Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Interconnection), 6 (Sennockian Star) & 3 (Solo Hunter)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.05: Richard Hanon comes to the gig on a hat track, whereby the chance of PREROGATIVE is obviously respected, especially as Richard's Rock Of Gibraltar raider has not been beaten far in four of his six assignments to date. FIREFRIGHT was only an 8/1 chance on his Newmarket debut which reads well in the context of this event, with Jeremy Noseda's Dragon Pulse colt beaten less than two lengths for good measure. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to beaten favourite HURRICANE RUSH.
Favourite factor: Two (2/1 & 6/4) favourites have obliged during the last 11 renewals. That said, nine of the 11 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
2.40: Six of the eight winners to date have carried weights of 9-3 or more, as have 12 of the 19 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. These statistics eliminate two of the nine horses, notwithstanding another raider (Wild Dancer) via the relevant claimer in the plate. SIRAJIAR deserves to get her head in front, though PINK MARTINI is the one to pose a threat from my viewpoint, whilst TIKTHEBOX is slowly being shown some respite by the official handicapper. A three pound claimer in the plate also helps his chance.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include three successful (3/1-11/4**-15/8) market leaders.
3.15: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and the pick of the three relevant entries will hopefully prove to be OLIVIA FALLOW. Paul Midgley is back saddling winners and with KING CRIMSON arguably being too closely matched with WASEEM FARIS, Paul's northern raider is preferred. Union Rose would have been given a decent chance had more rain fallen in the Epsom area over the weekend.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since the last favourite won this event. That said, three of the six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
Epsom record of runners in the third race:
3.50: Five-year-olds have won the last four renewals when represented, with vintage representatives 1/4 to extend the ratio this time around. The call from the relevant quarter is FIRE FIGHTING from my viewpoint, especially with Fran Berry being an eye catching booking. Last year's winner What About Carlo is difficult to catch right, whereby MAVERICK WAVE is preferred as the danger to the selection, with John Gosden's team well and truly back in top form now.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have scored via twelve renewals of late with the 12/1 gold medallist being returned as the biggest priced winner during the study period in 2012. It’s worth noting that seven of the eight market leaders that failed to win their respective contests finished out of the frame, statistics which include one (5/6) odds on favourite.
Epsom Record of runners in the fourth race:
1/4--Fire Fighting (good to firm)
2/6--What About Carlo (good & heavy)
1/3--Goodwood Zodiac (good to soft)
4.20: HUBERTAS and ROY ROCKET will feature in my toteplacepot permutation in this contest which was known for many years as the ‘Derby‘ for part time pilots. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to Eton Rambler, all three horses being ridden by more than capable pilots at any level, let alone in this type of event. ROY ROCKET hails from the George Baker yard which has recently enjoyed one of its best periods with so many winners (eleven in total since the end of June) being greeted by the trainer. George's six-year-old has gained all five successes to date at Brighton, the nearest equivalent track to this switchback left handed circuit. John Quinn's HUBERTAS represents another in form stable and both runners look sure to become competitive at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions since the terms and conditions altered the shape of this event back in 2005. Three market leaders have prevailed during the period.
Epsom record of runners in the fifth race:
1/4--Eton Rambler (good)
1/6--Pasaka Boy (good)
1/3--Jupiter Custos (good)
4.55: Four-year-olds have won six of the last nine renewals of the toteplacepot finale, whilst seven of the last ten gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 9-5. Quite amazingly, no four-year-olds are involved in the contest whereby confidence has taken a beating since viewing the card. That said, the weight trend is relevant whereby INTERCONNECTION, SENNOCKIAN STAR and SOLO HUNTER will fill my Placepot permutation, though 'win money' will remain under lock and key in a difficult finale to assess.
Favourite factor: Twelve renewals have now slipped by with successful favourites only being conspicuous by their absence. Only three of the fourteen favourites have finished in the money during the study period.
Epsom record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/7--Sennickian Star (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Monday:
4--Richard Fahey (2/17 at Epsom this season - winners at 25/1 & 9/2)
3--John Quinn (0/3)
3--Joseph Tuite (0/4)
2--George Baker (2/10 - winners at 16/1 & 4/1)
2--Mick Channon (2/13 - winners at 8/1 & 6/1)
2--Richard Hannon (1/12 - winner at 5/2**)
2--Charlie Hills (2/8 - winners at 2/1* & 11/10*)
2--Richard Hughes (1/4 - winner at 6/1)
2--Mark Johnston (2/19 - winners at 10/1 & 15/8*)
2--Martyn Meade (---)
2--Gary Moore (0/9)
2--Jonathan Portman (0/1)
2--Brendan Powell (0/3)
2--Stuart Williams (1/5 - winner at 11/2)
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Cartmel: £62.30 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced
Chepstow: £44.70 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced
Newcastle A/W: £43.40 - 8 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced (turf meeting last season)
Ripon: £170.20 - 6 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced
Epsom overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 2.05
0/2--Richard Hughes (Aventus & Red Caraval)
3/14--Richard Fahey (Cool Climate)
No runners--Jeremy Noseda (Firefright)
0/7--Charlie Hills (Hurricane Rush)
0/3--John Best (Ourmullion)
5/16--Richard Hannon (Prerogative)
0/5--Ed Walker (Romanor)
0/2--Martyn Meade (Vanderbilt)