EPSOM - AUGUST 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £44.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Art Of Freedom), 4 (Suffragette City) & 9 (Ivor's Magic)
Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Caspian Gold) & 3 (Pioneering)
Leg 3 (3.10): 9 (Foxtrot Knight), 4 (Goring) & 5 (Papa Luigi)
Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Dyllan) & 4 (Nouvelli Dancer)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Fandango) & 4 (Le Tissier)
Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Farham), 1 (Choral Festival) & 2 (Barren Brook)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Looking at the Nursery figure from this season I have listed immediately below, SUFFRAGETTE CITY (Richard Hannon) and ART OF FREEDOM (Charlie Appleby) look sure to figure prominently with the other trainers (seemingly) not taking the two-year-old handicaps seriously this term. That said, David Elsworth is rarely one to write off and as his recent winner IVOR'S MAGIC is only David's second Nursery representative of the season, David Egan's mount completes my trio against the field, with a seven pound claim offering further assistance down at the bottom of the weights. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to Kodiac Khan.
Favourite factor: Two of the seven renewals to date have been won by favourites, whilst five of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 7/1. The five beaten favourites all failed to secure toteplacepot positions.
Nursery record of trainers in Nursery races this season at all tracks - prior to Monday's sport:
1/10--Sylvester Kirk (Fair Power)
1/7--Hugo Palmer (Kodiac Khan)
7/43--Richard Hannon (Suffragette City)
0/1--Brendan Powell (Spiritofedinburgh)
2/3--Charlie Appleby (Art Of Freedom)
0/3--Jim Boyle (Cj Parker)
0/7--Mark Usher (Kings Heart)
0/1--David Elsowrth (Ivor's Magic)
2.35: CASPIAN GOLD is an interesting newcomer for Richard Hughes as a brother of Spongy who would have been a rattling good horse if able to break on terms with his rivals! If Ryan Tate's mount can start to decent effect, it will be interesting to see how Richard's February foal will run and as a son of Shamardal, this eight and a half furlong trip should bang on the money. PIONEERING is another debutante to consider, whilst OCEANUS should represent the experienced runners to best effect.
Favourite factor: All nine winners during the last twelve years have scored at 9/1 or less, whilst five market leaders have prevailed during the study period.
3.10: Four of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-3 (top priced winner of 8/1) and the trio which make the most appeal via this year‘s five ‘qualifiers‘ (claims taken into account) are FOXTROT KNIGHT, GORING and PAPA LUIGI. The trio are listed in order of preference, given Ruth Carr's continued good form with what are generally 'each way types'.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following seven renewals, whilst three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.
Epsom record of runners in the third race:
2/3--Ashpan Sam (good & good to firm)
2/6--Arctic Feeling (good & soft)
3.45: Three-year-olds have won both renewals to date, with three vintage representatives having been declared this time around. In order of preference, the 'juniors' are DYLLAN, NOUVELLI DANCER and RIPOLL. The first named pair have plenty of 'expenses' to repay in terms of travel and are likely to be played from a Placepot perspective, though I will let 'win money' ride in this event.
Favourite factor: The inaugural favourite finished third of seven in a 'short field' contest. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to races with five/six/seven runners in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/toteplacepot perspectives. Last year's 5/2 market leader fared a little better by finishing second in another short field contest.
Epsom record of runners in the fourth event:
2/13--Swiss Cross (2 x good to firm)
4.20: Three-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals with vintage representatives at 4/6 before the form book is consulted on this occasion. FANDANGO and LE TISSIER will represent better value for money than ALSACIENNE in all probability and I'm happy to side with that pair to get us through to the last leg of our favourite wager, if we are live going into the fifth event.
Favourite factor: A top priced winner of 7/1 had emerged via six renewals thus far, statistics which include two successful (11/4 & 4/9) market leaders.
Epsom record of runners in the fifth contest:
1/3--Jupiter Custos (good)
4.55: Eight of the nine available toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses carrying 9-5 or more and with Richard Fahey saddling some winners on Monday, FARHAM is the each way call in the finale. Others of interest via the weight trends include CHORAL FESTIVAL and BARREN BROOK. Those two horses have to give plenty of weight to the win and place selection via Adam McNamara's useful claim whereby the four-year-old is the definite call.
Favourite factor: The four favourites to date have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety alongside toteplacepot positions.
Epsom record of runners in the toteplacepot finale:
2/3--Choral Festival (good & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Epsom card on Tuesday - stats compiled before Monday's meeting was contested):
3--Richard Fahey (2/17 at Epsom this season - winners at 25/1 & 9/2)
3--Richard Hannon (1/12 - winner at 5/2**)
3--Gary Moore (0/9)
2--Charlie Appleby (1/3 - winner at 2/13*)
2--Michael Attwater (0/7)
2--Jim Boyle (1/7 - winner at 8/1)
2--Ruth Carr (---)
2--Patrick Chamings (0/4)
2--Mark Johnston (2/19 - winners at 10/1 & 15/8**)
2--Sylvester Kirk (1/4 - winner at 25/1)
2--Pat Phelan (1/11 - winner at 13/8*)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
48 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Goodwood: £113.30 - 6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced
Hamilton: £35.60 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Ripon: This is a new meeting
Worcester: £74.00 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Epsom overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.00 & 2.30 - stats compiled before Monday's meeting was contested):
0/4--Sylvester Kirk (Fair Power)
0/1--Hugo Palmer (Kodiac Khan)
5/16--Richard Hannon (Suffragette City)
No runners--Brendan Powell (Spiritofedinburgh)
2/7--Charlie Appleby (Art Of Freedom)
0/3--Jim Boyle (Cj Parker)
0/2--Mark Usher (Kings Heart)
No runners--David Elsworth (Ivor's Magic)
0/2--Richard Hughes (Caspian Gold)
2/7--Ed Dunlop (Oceanus)
2/7--Charlie Appleby (Pioneering)
0/5--Gary Moore (Reynardo De Silver)
5/29--Mark Johnston (Star Of The East)
1/2--David Simcock (Zymran)
No runners--Rae Guest (Ode to Glory)