WOLVERHAMPTON – FEBRUARY 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £42.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Wolverhampton:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (King Oswald), 10 (Lemon Thyme) & 1 (Shadow Spirit)
Leg 2 (2.55): 1 (Cultured Knight), 10 (Powerful Dream) & 5 (Ebony N Ivory)
Leg 3 (3.25): 6 (Harlequin Storm) & 7 (Jashma)
Leg 4 (3.55): 1 (Go Far), 4 (Bosham) & 6 (Eljaddaaf)
Leg 5 (4.25): 10 (Ravens Quest) & 6 (Spes Nostra)
Leg 6 (4.55): 1 (Atkinson Grimshaw) & 2 (Avantgardist)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: The handicapper might have caught up with Gabrial The Thug now (despite his good record at the track), whereby value for money types such as KING OSWALD, LEMON THYME and SHADOW SPIRIT form my Placepot permutation in the first leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
6/21—Gabrial The Thug
2.55: Four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals, with this year’s trio of vintage representatives being around the 11/4 mark to extend the good record before the form book is consulted, namely CULTURED DREAM, POWERFUL DREAM and EBONY ‘N IVORY. Those looking to play away from the vintage trend will consider ARCHIE STEVENS as the safest Placepot option I guess, notwithstanding his fine (5/18) at the track from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Eight renewals had gone by without a successful favourite being registered before the 2014 market leader duly obliged at 11/10. That said, the last two years reverted to type whereby only three of the last ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
3.25: Three-year-olds have dominated this event (as they usually do in these mixed vintage maiden events) having won seven of the last eight contests and the trend is likely to be extended with the likes of HARLEQUIN STORM and JASHMA having been declared to run. The 11/4 quote on the trade press about Harlequin Storm looks fanciful in the extreme at the time of writing, whereby 2/1 might prove to be a steal this morning if you can obtain such odds. Inexperienced players in the game might suggest that the odds are not that different, but those with the relevant knowledge will appreciate the six and half point differential, roughly the same as the difference between a 9/1 chance and another at 5/1.
Favourite factor: The only two favourites to have won this race during the last eleven renewals did so within the last five years.
3.55: The general 28/1 quote about GO FAR this morning makes some each way appeal, given his 30% strike rate at this venue, notwithstanding that he won at the first time of asking last season following a five month absence. You might also take into account that his three victories here at Wolverhampton have been gained over this trip, as have seven of his eight wins in total thus far. David Probert’s mount has finished ‘in the three’ in 15/27 assignments away from turf, which is another positive (win and place) factor. Others of interest include a couple of runners who also perform well here in general terms, namely BOSHAM and ELJADDAAF.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wolverhampton card.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event:
4.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals during the last twelve years, though only John Ryan (RAVENS QUEST) is live to the ‘edge’ this time around. John’s Raven’s Pass gelding has yet to supplement a soft ground Nottingham victory last year but Danny Brock’s mount has been dropped a couple of pounds by the official assessor, despite having only been beaten ‘three parts’ on his last assignment at this venue. That said SPES NOSTRA can usually be relied upon to run well here, having secured five gold medals at the track alongside two of the silver variety down the years.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten contests have been won by market leaders, whilst nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science) during the period.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
4.30: ATKINSON GRIMSHAW can continue the great run of favourites in the toteplacepot finale, if (as anticipated) Andrew Balding’s raider is returned as the market leader at flag fall. Indeed at the time of writing, the 2/1 trade press quote could look generous by the time that betting activity steps up throughout the day. Mark Johnston attempts to follow up last year’s success with AVANTGARDIST who should prove to be the biggest threat to the projected favourite.
Favourite factor: Market leaders of one description or another have won seven of the last ten contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven emerged at just 5/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wolverhampton card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3—David Evans (11/91 – loss of 30 points)
3—Dean Ivory (2/27 – loss of 16 points)
3—Ian Williams (9/39 – Profit of 34 points)
2—David Barron (4/17 – Profit of 35 points)
2—Roy Brotherton (0/14)
2—John Butler (0/10)
2—Mick Easterby (3/16 – loss of 3 points)
2—Les Eyre (0/4)
2—Jeremy Gask (4/28 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Ron Harris (2/20 – Profit of 22 points)
2—Richard Hughes (2/21 – loss of 14 points)
2—Iain Jardine (3/18 – loss of 10 points)
2—Phil McEntee (1/19 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Patrick Morris (2/15 – loss of 8 points)
2—John Ryan (0/9)
+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £42.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Plumpton: £5.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 placed