PLUMPTON – JANUARY 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1.10 (3 favourites - 3 winners – Meeting abandoned after three races)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (12.50): 5 (Golden Birthday), 1 (Action Replay) & 2 (Count Meribel)
Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Laissez Dire) & 1 (Baron Alco)
Leg 3 (1.50): 6 (Minella Awards), 1 (No Comment) & 2 (Alpine Secret)
Leg 4 (2.20): 1 (Ding Ding) & 3 (Moon Trip)
Leg 5 (2.50): 10 (Beforeall), 3 (Mysteree), 6 (Azure Fly) & 9 (Morney Wing)
Leg 6 .3.20(): 1 (Like Sully), 5 (Ray Diamond) & 7 (Bobbits Way)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: The first thing to mention is the amount of rain (and possible wet snow) which could make the ground extremely heavy. Five and six-year-olds have shared 11 of the last 15 renewals (older runners lead 6-5), with six-year-olds at 2/1 to extend their lead via the number of entries before the form book is consulted. GOLDEN BIRTHDAY and ACTION REPLAY appear to be the pick of the relevant runners, with five-year-old COUNT MERIBEL looking an ominous threat.
Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 winners have scored at 13/2 or less during which time, nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won. 13 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
1.20: Market leaders have a fine record in this event (see stats below) and Alan King’s raider LAISSEZ DIRE would be the call if ground becomes as bad as it might according to the weather forecasters. Barry Geraghty’s mount is Alan King’s only runner on the card which given the trainer’s recent good form is something of a surprise, especially as Alan was on the ‘missing list’ on New Year’s Say! BARON ALCO comes to the gig on an official 140 mark, though half decent conditions might have to be in place for his class to win the day.
Favourite factor: Eight of the twelve favourites have won to date, with nine market leaders finishing in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Baron Alco (good to soft)
1.50: Five year-olds come to the gig on a six timer, with ALPINE SECRET much preferred to One Brilliant Day of the two relevant entries this year. That said, two likely looking six-year-olds stand in their way this time around, namely MINELLA AWARDS and NO COMMENT.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 12 winners have scored at 9/2 or less, stats which include four winning favourites. Seven of the thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winner in the third event on the card:
1/1—No Comment (good to soft)
2.50: DING DING can be classed as something of a course specialist given that the top weight has gained both of his NH races here at Plumpton. Indeed, trainer Sheena West is a course specialist herself, with Sheena having gained 40% of all her winners at the Sussex venue during the course of the last five years. Good to firm course winner Bostin might struggle given the likely conditions, which could mean that MOON TRIP emerges as the biggest threat to the selection.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Plumpton card.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
2/6—Ding Ding (good & good to soft)
1/3—Bostin (good to firm)
1/3—Moon Trip (good to soft)
3.20: Nine of the last ten winners have carried weights of 11-5 or less, as have 21 of the 30 horses which have secured toteplacepot/each way positions in the ‘Sussex National’ to date. Nine-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a five timer. BEFOREALL appears to be the obvious selection given that Oliver Sherwood’s raider possesses ticks in the both of the trend boxes, whilst the trainer is enjoying a run of fine form. Others for the overnight short list include MYSTEREE and AZURE FLY. The reserve nomination is awarded to MORNEY WING.
Favourite factor: Six of the 10 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date though we still await our first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Sussex National’:
1/2—Sartorial Elegance (good to soft)
1/1—Dawson City (heavy)
1/1—Beforeall (good to soft)
2/7—Leg Iron (soft & heavy)
3.50: With three of the four course winners having won on heavy ground in the last event, it might prove churlish to ignore that obvious ‘edge’. LIKE SULLY. RAY DIAMOND and BOBBITS WAY are the three horses in question. If the meteorologists have been proved wrong by this stage of the afternoon, JOHN’S LUCK would be the call.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Plumpton programme.
Record of the course winner in the sixth race:
3/8—Like Sully (good – soft - heavy)
2/12—Venetian Lad (2 x good)
2/7—Ray Diamond (soft & heavy)
1/8—Bobbits Way (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Gary Moore (40/217 – loss of 31 points)
4—Neil Mulholland (5/51 – loss of 14 points)
3—Philip Hobbs (2/17 – loss of 11 points)
3—Richard Rowe (5/57 – loss of 29 points)
3—Colin Tizzard (9/49 – loss if 14 points)
2—Michael Blake (1/10 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Harry Fry (6/11 Profit of 21 points)
2—Nick Gifford (7/64 – loss of 18 points)
2—Diana Grissell (4/63 (loss of 27 points)
2—Mark Hoad (0/25)
2—Emma Lavelle (4/24 – loss of 8 points)
2—Anna Newton-Smith (4/86 – loss of 31 points)
2—Dabniel O’Brien (3/53 – loss of 16 points)
2—Pat Phelan (0/31)
2—David Pipe (15/48 (Profit of 19 points)
2—Jackie Du Plessis (0/1)
2—Sheena West (12/87 – loss of 13 points)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £253.40 – 6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced