DONCASTER – JANUARY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £3.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (1.00): 11 (Zipple Back), 9 (Tree Of Liberty) & 5 (Lough Derg Farmer)
Leg 2 (1.30): 6 (Querry Horse) & 1 (Hammersly Lake)
Leg 3 (2.05): 4 (Grand Enterprise), 1 (Phare Isle) & 6 (County Road)
Leg 4 (2.40): 1 (Stowaway Magic) & 3 (Boudry)
Leg 5 (3.10): 3 (Desert Commander) & 4 (Towering)
Leg 6 (3.45): 2 (Graceful Legend), 1 (Cajun Fiddle), 3 (Mo Chailin) & 4 (Beyond Measure)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: It’s difficult to argue against Nicky Henderson raiders at this venue (especially with Paul Nicholls on the missing list for the first half of the week), but LOUGH DERG FARMER has hardly set the world alight thus far, whereby ZIPPLE BACK and TREE OF LIBERTY are preferred om this occasion, certainly from a win perspective anyway.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card with which to open proceedings.
1.30: Three pound claimer Jack Sherwood is going places and Oliver Sherwood keeps faith here by giving the leg up to Jack aboard QUERRY HORSE. Nicky Henderson suffered a serious reversal in the inaugural contest twelve months ago (see details below) whereby HAMMERSLY LAKE can be expected to figure prominently to balance the scales.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 favourite was beaten into second placed, albeit Nicky Henderson’s beaten market leader secured a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/2—Cyrius Moriviere (good to soft)
2.05: All three favourites have won at their leisure in this event (aggregate distance of 33 and a half lengths) whereby the chance of the projected market leader GRAND ENTERPRISE has to be respected. That said, the aggregate stats of the 11 represented trainers during the last fortnight stands at 7/77 (9.1% strike rate) at the time of writing so very little is set in stone at the overnight stage. Others to catch the eye include PHARE ISLE and COUNTY ROAD.
Favourite factor: All three (5/4, 5/2 & 4/1) favourites have won their respective events to date.
2.40: All three winners have carried the burden of 11-12 successfully, with STOWAWAY MAGIC being this year’s lone ‘qualifier’ from a weight trend perspective, whereby STOWAWAY MAGIC appears to hold all the aces here, despite having to give seven pounds to all 10 rivals. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old was swept aside by the highly progressive No Comment the last day, though there is no such rival in this line up. Warren Greatrex continues to send out winners for fun whereby his Crossharbour gelding BOUDRY is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Only a short head defeat recorded for the middle of the three favourites has stopped market leaders completing a clean sweep thus far.
3.10: All eight Placepot positions have been claimed by horses carrying a minimum weight of 11-3, statistics which eliminate four of the nine runners if you take the weight trends seriously. I Just Know is the threat to the trend being continued but as a self confessed ‘anorak’, I will adhere to the figures by siding with DEPUTY COMMANDER and TOWERING. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to Wade Harper
Favourite factor: Although we still await the first winning favourite following three renewals, three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Wade Harper (good to soft)
1/2—Deputy Commander (good to soft)
3.45: There appears little to choose between the four declarations and I will take my usual route on such occasions by including all four runners in my Placepot mix, hoping that the horse with the least number of units prevails. For the record, my marginal overnight preference is listed as GRACEFUL LEGEND, CAJUN FIDDLE, MO CHAILIN and BEYOND MEASURE.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one successful (15/8) market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Graceful Legend (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Monday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Nicky Henderson (31/86 – Profit of 40 points)
4—Donald McCain (4/65 – loss of 41 points)
3—David Dennis (2/21 (loss of 14 points)
3—Alan King (21/99 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Richard Phillips (2/22 – Profit of 21 points)
3—Oliver Sherwood (1/15 – loss of 11 points)
2—Ben Case (3 /20 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Warren Greatrex (6/29 – loss of 5 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (4/30 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Neil King (5/52 – loss of 34 points)
2—Henry Oliver (1/4 - slight loss)
2—Nicky Richards (6/31 – Profit of 11 points)
+ 22 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Lingfield: £170.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £195.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced