WINDSOR - JULY 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £33.50 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (6.05): 11 (Sir Geoffrey), 1 (Cat Silver) & 3 (Etienne Gerard)
Leg 2 (6.35): 8 (Well Suited), 1 (Bezos) & 10 (Yorbelucky)
Leg 3 (7.05): 7 (See The Sea), 8 (Log Off) & 4 (Kiruna Park)
Leg 4 (7.35): 3 (Sir Titan)
Leg 5 (8.05): 10 (Marie Josephe), 11 (Golden Nectar) & 4 (Gambit)
Leg 6 (8.35): 4 (Big Tour) & 5 (Hyperloop)
Suggested stake: 162 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.05: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more to date, with three of the fourteen runners omitted accordingly. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that four-year-olds are even money to record their seventh win in the contest in this tenth renewal. Pick of the bunch this time around should prove to be CAT SILVER (drawn 8/14) and SIR GEOFFREY (3). ETIENNE GERARD defends his crown on almost exactly the same terms as last year given the claiming pilot who has been booked to ride, whilst trap one should confirm a prominent effort unless heavier rain than anticipated arrives at Windsor on Monday afternoon.
Favourite factor: Three of the nine favourites (stats include two winners at 7/2 & 3/1) have secured toteplacepot positions to date. The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 10/1 two years ago.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Etienne Gerard (good to firm)
1/1—Frangarry (good to soft)
1/2—Sir Geoffrey (soft)
6.35: WELL SUITED would have been offered as quite a confident (if speculative) call, but for drawing stall 12 out in the widestbstall. That said, the chance of Simon Crisford’s Dandy Man colt is still respected in a race which should not prove difficult to win. BEZOS (better drawn in trap 4) is another newcomer to consider whilst arguably, YORBELUCKY is the value for money call via the experienced runners in the field.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card, courtesy of the change brought in by the BHA eighteen months ago relating to Novice events for juveniles.
7.05: John Egan remains one of the better light weight jockeys in the weighing room and 8-7 is not usually a problem for the experienced pilot who rides LOG OFF at the bottom of the list for David Evans on this occasion. SEE THE SEA also makes some appeal in a weak race, with Mick Channon’s Newmarket winner KIRUNA PARK completing the overnight short list.
Favourite factor: The four market leaders to date have secured three gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst snaring toteplacepot positions.
7.35: Three-year-olds tend to run well against their elders in these mixed vintage handicap events as has been the case in this event, with the four relevant raiders being around the 11/8 mark to land this fifth renewal having won three of the previous four contests. Three-year-old SIR TITAN posted a convincing win on his first race after a gelding operation at Wolverhampton and it would be disappointing in the extreme if the Marcus Tregoning raider failed to follow up that victory in this grade/company. Marcus appears to have found a glorious chance for this handicap debutante.
Favourite factor: Three of four of the five favourites have secured two gold and one of the silver variety whilst claiming Placepot positions, though the other market leader could only finish fourth in a five horse race.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/3—Fast Dancer (good to firm)
4/21—Shifting Star (2 x good to soft – Good – good to firm)
1/4—Fastnet Spin (soft)
8.05: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the five renewals to date, the three-year-olds MARIE JOSEPHE and GOLDEN NECTAR joined by four-year-old GAMBIT to form my Placepot permutation in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager. Richard Kingscote (GAMBIT) will be riding with supreme confidence having ridden his first ever (1,088/1) four timer at Haydock on Friday. That said, slight preference is given to the three-year-olds to land the race between them from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have finished in the frame via five renewals, statistics which include two (5/1** & 11/8) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race on the card:
2/10—Craftsmanship (good to firm & soft)
1/7—Essenaitch (good to soft)
1/2—Marie Josephe (good to firm)
8.35: Three horses seemingly stand out from the crowd as we try and land another Placepot dividend. BIG TOUR and HYPERLOOP are readily preferred to Unit Of Assessment who should nonetheless finish in the money without too much fuss.
Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—David Evans (4/43 – loss of 20 points)
3—Ralph Beckett (1/11 – loss of 8 points)
2—John Bridger (1/12 – loss of 3 points)
2—Tony Carroll (0/11)
2—Robert Eddery (1/11 (loss of 8 points)
2—John Gosden (3/10 – Slight profit)
2—Richard Hannon (8/34 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Jo Hughes (No previous runners)
2—Richard Hughes (3/26 – loss of 6 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (2/6 – Profit of 5 points)
2—John Ryan (0/4)
2—Nigel Tinkler (No previous runners)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £14.50 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 2 unplaced
Ripon: £1,218.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Worcester: £1,135.20 – 8 favourites – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced