WINDSOR - JULY 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £180.00 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (6.00): 8 (Showdaisy), 7 (Helfire) & 5 (Essaka)
Leg 2 (6.30): 6 (Tis Marvellous) & 2 (Mucho Applause)
Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Clive Clifton), 1 (Brasted) & 5 (Masqueraded)
Leg 4 (7.30): 2 (Delfie Lane), 8 (Fabric) & 7 (Express)
Leg 5 (8.00): 5 (Carpe Diem Lady) & 3 (Intermittent)
Leg 6 (8.30): 2 (Against The Odds) & 5 (Mytimehascome)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.00: The first point to make is there are no course winners throughout the six Placepot races, just in case you thought I had forgotten to list them for Monday on my last day before I take a break from daily duties! Upwards and onward in positive mode by offering horses saddled by trainers showing winning form of late, namely SHOWDAISY (Andrew Balding), HELFIRE (Hughie Morrison) and ESSAKA (Tony Carroll). The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BLISTERING DANCER, the other Tony Carroll runner in the contest.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 9/2 favourite finished nearer last than first behind horses which filled the frame at 8/1-8/1-15/2.
6.30: It seems highly unlikely that both TIS MARVELLOUS and MUCHO APPLAUSE will miss out on Placepot positions here. I would not care to become involved in the race from a win perspective, though it would seem a little churlish in dismissing the two juveniles who both showed that races should be won at some stage of their respective careers. For now, I'll just include both in my permutation, happy in the knowledge that we should make it safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager, providing the difficult opening heat was negotiated successfully.
Favourite factor: The first two 5/2 & 8/11 market leaders duly prevailed before last year's 11/8 favourite out with the washing.
7.00: David Evans has been saddling plenty of older winners this season, as well as his usual decent quota of juvenile gold medallists. Only Clive Cox has saddled more than David's haul of six winners (26% strike rate) at the course this season and David appears to have found a decent opportunity for CLIVE CLIFTON who attempts to land the trainer's thirteenth winner of a selling event during the last five years. BRASTED and MASQUERADED are classed as the fairly obvious dangers.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via three renewals, statistics which include two winners.
7.30: There will be worse potential outsiders on the card that the Richard Hughes newcomer DELFIE LANE I'll wager, with trainer Richard Hughes being quite sweet on his March foal though as a Harbour Watch juvenile, Jamie Spencer's mount will need a distance of ground in time. Richard had a long and successful association with Richard Hannon of course, and it could be his former boss of who poses the biggest problem on this occasion, having declared both FABRIC and EXPRESS.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last eight renewals during which time, five market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).
8.00: Three-year-olds have claimed thirteen victories during the last eighteen years, albeit three of those vintage representatives were involved in two dead heat scenarios during the study period. Seven junior representatives are involved on this occasion, with the Clive Cox raider CARPE DIEM LADY possibly leading the relevant entries home, especially as the trainer boasts a 27% strike rate at Windsor this season via seven winners. The main threats appear to be INTERMITTENT and (possibly) PRINCESS RAIHANA).
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won, whilst 12 of the 22 jollies have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
8.30: I'm attracted to the 'rag' in the contest according to the trade press, namely AGAINST THE ODDS who represents Paul Cole's yard which is firing well just now. It's not just the winners that the trainer has posted of late, as I have noted plenty of placed horses at half decent prices who have outrun their odds of late. Others to consider include MYTIMEHASCOME and COSMEAPOLITAN.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had finished out of their respective ‘short field‘ frames, before last year's 15/8 market leader obliged. The race reverted to type again twelve years ago when the 7/4 market leader finished out of the frame. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective. I'll simply sign off in 'Oliver' mode; Pip pip, cheerio - be back soon! Best of luck in the interim.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
6--Richard Hannon (4/39 at Windsor this season - winners at 25/1-7/2-3/1*-2/1)
4--Paul Cole (0/9)
4--David Evans (6/23 - winners at 14/1-10/1-11/2-5/1-4/1-2/1*)
3--Clive Cox (7/26 - winners at 12/1-4/1-3/1-5/2*-7/4*-13/8*-15/8*)
3--Geoff Deacon (0/2)
2--Andrew Balding (3/28 - winners at 7/1-7/4-2/9*)
2--Michael Bell (0/3)
2--Tony Carroll (0/11)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/5)
2--Richard Hughes (3/13 - winners at 20/1-3/1-2/5*)
2--Gay Kelleway (0/3)
2--Rod Millman (2/15 - winners at 3/1** twice)
2--Jonjo O'Neill (0/1)
2--Jamie Osborne (2/5 - winners at 16/1 & 10/1)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £50.30 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £24.70 - 6 favourites - 6 winners & 1 unplaced
Chelmsford: This is a new fixture on the calendar
Windsor overview - Five year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events:
1/26--Jamie Osborne (Gentleman Giles)
9/23--Andrew Balding (Mucho Applause)
18/98--Richard Hannon (Sans Souci Bay + Rita's Man)
0/18--Ed Walker (Silent Assassin)
4/31--Clive Cox (Tis Marvellous)
2/15--Tom Dascombe (White Chin)
12/55--David Evans (Log Off)
No runners--George Scott (Saxagogo)
0/1--Jose Santos (Dandy Flame)
1/4--Richard Hughes (Delfie Lane)
4/31--Clive Cox (Grey Galleon)
0/6--James Tate (Kyllang Rock)
3/23--Paul Cole (Mr Pocket)
0/2--Simon Dow (Roundabout Magic)
18/98--Richard Hannon (Express & Fabric)