BEVERLEY – JULY 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £153.60 (8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Beverley:
Leg 1 (5.55): 2 (Piedita), 1 (Laureate) & 9 (Nothing Compares)
Leg 2 (6.25): 1 (Special Purpose) & 9 (Me Before You)
Leg 3 (6.55): 11 (Maureb), 13 (Thatcherite) & 7 (The Nazca Lines)
Leg 4 (7.25): 4 (Katebird), 8 (Greenview Paradise) & 9 (Snookered)
Leg 5 (7.55): 3 (Muirsheen Durkin) & 9 (Navarone)
Leg 6 (8.25): 7 (Justice Pleasing), 3 (Old China) & 12 (Pepys)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Five year study of the corresponding meeting:
30 races – 12 winning favourites – 27/32 winners scored at a top price of 10/1
Average Placepot dividend: £109.56
Highest dividend: £153.60 (last year) – Lowest dividend: £76.00 (2013)
4 winners—Tim Easterby (9/2, 10/3, 11/4* & 4/6*)
4 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake loss of 5 points
3 winners—Ollie Pears (20/1, 5/2 & 6/4*) 5 runners
2 runners on the card – 4/19 this season – Level stake profit of 39 points
3 winners—Mark Johnston (10/1, 7/4* & 11/10*) – 2 runners
5 runners on the card – 7/37 this season – Level stake profit of 6 points
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.55: It’s not often that a meeting opens with a two mile contest on the level but that’s what we are faced with here. High on numbers but probably short on potential winners, it’s worth noting that seven of the last eight winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, a trend that could (perhaps) should be continued with PIEDITA and Mark Johnston’s pair LAUREATE and NOTHING COMPARES having been declared.
Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade. Half of the favourites (6/12) have secured Placepot positions during the study period.
6.25: It’s important to stress that the Lingfield win gained by newcomer SPECIAL PURPOSE was gained on turf when the William Haggas raider bolted up on good ground. Punters often make the wrong assumption (either way) regarding turf and all weather surfaces and it is useful just to take a few moments to establish what conditions horses ran under when scoring at the track. Well enough drawn here (4/12), Oisin Murphy’s mount should make short work of the opposition even taking the penalty into account, especially as Scat Daddy stock can be really decent types having showed such early talent. David O’Meara has wasted no time in dropping ME BEFORE YOU down a furlong which should ensure that the silver medal is his for the taking following an encouraging run at Ripon on her first day at school. Me Before You is a clever name for a filly if taking old fashioned standards into account!
Favourite factor: This is a new race on The Beverley card with the BHA having introduced their ‘novice system’ around 18 months ago.
6.55: John Quinn’s last two runners on Saturday won their respective races at 25/1 & 5/1 and THE NAZCA LINES would have been his first subsequent runner but for an Ayr entry earlier in the day. That said, if support comes in for the recent Carlisle winner making Jason Hart’s mount the clear favourite, ‘stat types’ like yours truly might not want to watch the closing stages if the record of market leaders in this race is taken into account (see details below). 8/15 is hardly a perfect draw either as this is a horse that generally comes from off the pace. That said, a three pound hike for the Carlisle win can offer connections confidence and a Placepot position is certainly within reach at least. Others for the melting pot include Tony Coyle’s pair MAUREB (third in this event twelve months ago) and THATCHERITE who is well boxed in trap three. The chance for MAUREB is there for all to see, running off a six pound lower mark having been beaten by only a length last year.
Favourite factor: Only one of the last nine renewals has been claimed by a favourite during which time, two 20/1 gold medallists have reared their ugly heads. Indeed, the winner three years ago is the only market leader to have finished in the frame (exact science) in the afore-mentioned nine year period!
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/1—Musharrif (good to firm)
1/3—First Bombardment (good)
1/13—Bronze Beau (good to firm)
1/4—Jack Luey (soft)
1/1—Astrophysics (good to firm)
2/13—Thatcherite (2 x good)
1/3—Crosse Fire (good to firm)
7.25: Three-year-olds have claimed five of the nine contests to date and Mark Johnston is typically wise to the facts and stats having declared vintage representative KATEBIRD. Mark has saddled the winner of two of the last five renewals when represented and his Dark Angel filly is the first name on my team sheet. It’s also difficult for me to ignore Richard Fahey’s pair of three-year-olds down at the foot of the handicap, namely GREENVIEW PARADISE and SNOOKERED.
Favourite factor: Three of the last six contests have been won by market leaders, whilst the last eight gold medallists scored at a top price of 9/2. Six of the last eight favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/4—Lopito De Vega (good)
1/3—Bromance (good to firm)
7.55: Plenty of rain is forecast for the Beverley area overnight and some way into the morning which could aid and abet the chance of soft ground course winner NAVARONE. The money overnight however was for MUIRSHEEN DURKIN which could prove significant, whilst there was also each way support for CHAPLIN BAY who could reward win and place investors at around the 9/1 mark. The 14/1 trade press quote about Ruth Carr’s five-year-old raider appears fanciful at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: One of the three 4/1 co favourite duly obliged last year, though the other two market leaders finished out of the money in ‘short field’ event. New readers light like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races, in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
2/5—Sovereign Bounty (good & good to firm)
2/3—Muirsheen Durkin (good to firm & good to soft)
5/16—Talent Scount (5 x good to firm)
8.25: I suppose the obvious bet ion this handicap event would be to look for odds on at least on non-runner being announced before flag fall, though I’ll wager the quote would be skinny in the extreme with 16 entries still ‘intact’ at the time of writing! Upwards and onward be declaring that my trio against the field consists of JUSTICE PLEASING (drawn well enough; 5/16), OLD CHINA (has run well on soft before should moisture get into the ground) and beaten favourite PEPYS, albeit Bryan Smart’s representative enters my ‘last chance saloon’ tonight.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural (Lawrence Mullaney trained) 4/1 favourite finished well in arrears, the frame being filled by horses returned at 7/1, 7/1 & 20/1.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/4—So It’s War (good to firm)
4/28—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)
2/3—Arcane Dancer (2 x good to firm)
3/20—I’m Super Too (3 x good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Fahey (11/46 – Profit of 3 points)
5—Mark Johnston (7/37 – Profit of 6 points)
4—Michael Appleby (1/8 – loss of 4 points)
4—Tim Easterby (3/45 – loss of 5 points)
4—David O’Meara (3/44 – Loss of 25 points)
3—Anthony Brittain (2/9 – Profit of 10 points)
3—Declan Carroll (2/12 – loss of 2 points)
3—Tony Coyle (1/11 – loss of 5 points)
3—Kevin Ryan (2/20 – loss of 4 points)
3—Bryan Smart (1/15 – loss of 10 points)
3—Karen Tutty (3/14 – Profit of 26 points)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (1/8 – Loss of 2 points)
2—Neville Bycroft (0/1)
2—Ruth Carr (1/16 – loss of 7 points)
2—Keith Dalgleish (0/7)
2—Roger Fell (1/15 – loss of 12 points)
2—Marjorie Fife (0/3)
2—James Given (0/7)
2—David C Griffiths (0/8)
2—Patrick Holmes (0/5)
2—Lawrence Mullaney (0/8)
2—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/2)
2—Ollie Pears (4/19 – Profit of 39 points)
2—John Quinn (2/14 – loss of 2 points)
2—Mark Walford (2/6 – Profit of 4 points)
+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
93 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £66.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced
Windsor: £20.90 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Cartmel: £18.60 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced