WINDSOR – JUNE 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £17.30 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.50): 9 (Eugenic), 7 (Merry Dancer) & 1 (Pink Ribbon)
Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Compton Lane) & 5 (Jashma)
Leg 3 (6.50): 3 (Luduamf) & 9 (Mesmeric Moment)
Leg 4 (7.20): 10 (Fever Few), 9 (Under Siege) & 11 (Jo Packet)
Leg 5 (7.50): 4 (Tainted Love) & 5 (Harlequin Striker)
Leg 6 (8.20): 4 (Ex Lover), 5 (Falak) & 11 (Tam O'Shanter)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the page for overviews
5.50: I am writing this before Saturday's racing takes place so please excuse the slightly reduced analysis for Monday. I am away for a few days before the wonderful onslaught of Royal Ascot hits us on Tuesday. Part of the time spent away will be researching the Tuesday/Wednesday cards you understand. Upwards and onward by nominating EUGENIC (hoping the ground stays on the fast side), course and distance winner MERRY DANCER and PINK RIBBON against the other eight contenders.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders (one gold and two silver medallists) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
2/4--Dalmarella Dancer (2 x good)
1/1--Merry Dancer (goot to soft)
6.20: I don't believe I have ever typed in the name of Stan Moore as having the most runners on any card but it's a shame that this has happened at Windsor, given that Stan's ratio at the track during the last five years stands at 1/64! Out of interest, Stan's winner was recorded three years ago. Upwards and onward by suggesting that COMPTON LANE, JASHMA and EL TORRITO should have to much pain for Stan's potential raider Sheila's Palace.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.
6.50: David Evans (MESMERIC MOMENT) has won the four renewals which have eluded the Richard Hannon stable during the last eight years. Richard saddles LUDUAMF on this occasion and I am a little surprised that Richard has entered his Tamayuz colt, given that the trainer was full optimism during a stable visit back in the spring. COSMIC BEAU should also reach the frame in receipt of three pounds from Billy's Boots.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last 12 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 12 years having been returned at just 7/1. The last ten gold medallists were returned at a top price of 9/2. 12/13 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
7.20: All ten winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap according to the trends consists of FEVER FEW, UNDER SIEGE and JO PACKET. Chris Wall saddled last year's winner and with his team in sparkling form, FEVER FEW is the first name on the team sheet which makes for positive reading given his potential each way price.
Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed toteplacepot positions via eight contests at the time. The last two renewals reverted to type as 3/1 & 5/2 market leaders have finished out with the washing.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
3/9--Links Drive Lady (2 x soft & 1 x good to soft)
1/3--Sydneyruffdiamond (good to firm)
1/5--Joe Packet (good to soft)
7.50: Four-year-olds have secured eight of the ten renewals thus far, with vintage representatives 3/10 to improve the ratio before the form book is consulted this time around. TAINTED LOVE (the other Chris Wall declaration on the card) and HARLEQUIN STRIKER might best represent the vintage on this occasion. The latter named Dean Ivory raider was taken out of a race a few days ago and with Dean Ivory saddling winners for fun just now, the decision to wait for this race might prove to have been the right route to take. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to BUNBURY.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites. Nine of the ten winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, whilst seven of the ten market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/2--Molten Lava (good)
1/4--Snappy Guest (good to soft)
2/14--Shifting Star (good & good to soft)
8.20: Three-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven renewals which is par for the course in these mixed vintage maiden events. Roger Varian boasts a 30% strike rate here at Windsor during the last five years (25/84), winners which have produced level stake profits of over 23 points. Roger has declared EX LOVER and FALAK (his only runners on the card) and I would be very surprised if both horses failed to take a hand in the finish. Others for the overnight mix include TAM O'SHANTER and SEPTEMBER STARS. Money for either/both of Sir Michael Stoute's pair Devine Quickstep and Fashion Design would add interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Five recent market leaders have prevailed, though those results are evened out by the fact that three double priced gold medallists have emerged at 50/1-16/1-12/1 down the years. Eight of the fourteen favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
4--Stan Moore (1/65 at Windsor during the last five years)
3--Ralph Beckett (23/122)
3--John Bridger (10/128)
3--Paul Cole (4/63)
3--Richard Hughes (2/8)
3--Dean Ivory (13/98)
3--Ian Williams (1/34)
2--Jim Boyle (6/64)
2--Karl Burke (5/18)
2--Mick Channon (10/156)
2--Tom Dascombe (4/32)
2--Alan King (1/18)
2--Michael Madgwick (0/14)
2--Rod Millman (9/81)
2--Pat Phelan (2/41)
2--Brendan Powell (3/56)
2--Richard Rowe (0/2)
2--David Simcock (6/50)
2--Sir Michael Stoute (14/87)
2--Mark Usher (3/58)
2--Roger Varian (25/84)
2--Chris Wall (5/58)
2--Stuart Williams (3/58)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
86 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £279.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Nottingham: 860.50 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
The other meeting on Monday is an additional fixture at Thirsk
Another Royal Ascot 'whetting' exercise (relating to Tuesday's card - five year study):
32 favourites have evolved - 12 winners
The 20 beaten favourites were saddled by 18 different trainers - only Aidan O'Brien and Richard Hannon (senior) saddled more than one beaten market leader during the period (two each).
24/30 winners were returned in single figures - the other six gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 12/1 & 20/1