WINDSOR – JUNE 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £89.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.45): 3 (Hope Is High) & 4 (Powered)
Leg 2 (6.15): 3 (Expecting), 4 (Gotti) & 2 (Demons Rock)
Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Shovel It On), 8 (Tie Em Up Tel) & 1 (Bumble Beeze)
Leg 4 (7.15): 6 (Handytalk), 4 (King Of Spin) & 2 (Cool Bahamian)
Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (Manton Grange), 9 (Shifting Star) & 8 (Tarseekh)
Leg 6 (8.15): 7 (Percy B Shelley) & 8 (Prerogative)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the page for overviews + more Royal Ascot stats (for Tuesday)
5.45: T'was good to get back to winning ways via yesterday's Salisbury Placepot, especially with the big Royal Aascot meeting drawing ever nearer. Upwards and onward by informing that four of the five winners have carried 9-1 or more in the first race at Windsor which eliminates the bottom two horses in the list if you take the stats seriously, as does this self confessed ‘anorak’. HOPE IS HIGH is sent out again just five days after winning at Yarmouth, though Silvestre De Sousa was winning on just about everything he rode at the time which tempers enthusiasm to a fashion here with a different pilot in the plate. That said, John Berry should be congratulated for finding another winning opportunity for his four-year-old raider, vintage representatives coming to the gig on a hat trick. Another four-year-old is (seemingly) the obvious danger, namely POWERED who should also figure prominently in this grade/company.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders (one gold and two silver medallists) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
2/8--Moonjaned (good to firm & soft)
2/5--Shirataki (good to firm & soft)
6.20: DEMONS ROCK enters my last (two-year-old) last chance saloon from a win perspective, given that excuses could have been made on the last two (of three) assignments thus far. His Placepot chance is there for all to see from a decent draw, though EXPECTING and GOTTI could well thwart the Tom Dascombe raider as far as win money is concerned. Both horses showed enough ability at the first time of asking to suggest that a small race should be there for the taking before too long, though their wide stall positions offer no assistance whatsoever.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 market leader found one too good when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
6.45: David Evans has won five of the last six renewals and with four of the ten entries in David’s care, the stable is 6/4 to land a five-timer in the contest before the form book is evaluated. SHOVEL IT ON and TIE EM UP TELL look sure to be there or thereabouts at the furlong marker, possibly alongside BUMBLE BEEZE who could turn out to be the joker in the pack if David and his team are to be denied their nap hand in the contest.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last 13 renewals, the biggest priced winner during the last 12 years having been returned at just 7/1. The last eleven gold medallists were returned at a top price of 5/1. 13/14 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
7.15: All eleven winners were burdened with a maximum weight of 9-6 and the trio that the eye from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap consists of HANDYTALK, KING OF SPIN and COOL BAHMAIN. All three horses are saddled by in form trainers (Rod Millman, Richard Hughes and Eve Johnson Houghton respectively), whilst the last six gold medallists have carried 8-13 or more. All three horses qualify via the weight trends.
Favourite factor: Punters had to wait until 2013 for the first successful (3/1) favourite to oblige, whilst four of the 10 market leaders had claimed toteplacepot positions via eight contests at the time. The last three renewals reverted to type as two of the three market leaders have finished out with the washing (no further winners).
Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/5—Pretty Bubbles (good to firm)
1/2—King Of Spin (good)
1/6--Ginzan (good to soft)
1/4—Handy Talk (good)
1/2—Picket Line (good)
7.45: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eleven renewals thus far, yet only two trainers (of nine in total) have ‘seen the edge’, with the pair of vintage representatives coming to the party on a four-timer on this occasion. I opted for last year’s 10/1 winner twelve months ago, though I am afraid that MANTON GRANGE will be chalked up at much shorter odds this time around. George Baker’s soft ground Leicester winner will have different conditions here but with the yard in fine form (four of the last fifteen have won), MANTON GRANGE is the first name on the team sheet. Fellow four-year-old TARSEEKH could outrun his odds, though a more realistic danger from a win perspective is SHIFTING STAR, who was second in the race last year off a two pound higher mark.
Favourite factor: Eight renewals have slipped by since a market leader prevailed, albeit the first three contests were secured by favourites. Ten of the eleven winners have scored at a top price of 10/1, whilst seven of the eleven market leaders have finished in the (exact science) frame.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/5—Ogbourne Downs (2 x good)
3/19—Shifting Star (2 x good to soft & good)
8.15: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last twelve renewals which is par for the course in these mixed vintage maiden events. Although I would not have a bet from a win perspective in the contest, there seems little point in dallying around from a Placepot viewpoint with PERCY B SHELLEY and PREROGATIVE having been declared, especially with so much Royal Ascot work still to be completed!
Favourite factor: Six recent market leaders have prevailed, though those results are evened out by the fact that three double priced gold medallists have emerged at 50/1-16/1-12/1 down the years. Nine of the fifteen favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Windsor card on Monday followed by this year’s ratios at the track:
9 runners—David Evans (1/29 – loss of 18 points)
2—John Berry (0/1)
2—Tom Dascombe (No previous runners at Windsor this season)
2—Ed Dunlop (0/9)
2—Charlie Fellowes (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Richard Hannon (5/22 – loss of 6 points)
2—Charlie Hills (1/9 – loss of 3 points)
2—Richard Hughes (1/18 – loss of 8 points)
2—Rod Millman (3/12 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Stan Moore (0/4)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/2 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Jonathan Portman (0/12)
2—Brendan Powell (1/7 – Profit of 6 points)
2—John Spearing 0/1)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £50.40 (8 favourites - 4 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Nottingham: £121.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Wetherby (flat): This appears to be a mix fixture on the calendar
Another Royal Ascot 'whetting' exercise (relating to Tuesday's card via a six year study period):
39 favourites have evolved - 13 winners
29/36 winners were returned in single figures - the other seven gold medallists were returned at odds ranging between 12/1 & 20/1