WINDSOR – JUNE 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £65.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.50): 12 (South Seas), 1 (Act Of Freedom) & 14 (Express)
Leg 2 (6.20): 7 (Major Assault) & 14 (Lolwah)
Leg 3 (6.50): 5 (Philadelphia), 1 (Ballard Down) & 4 (Skeaping)
Leg 4 (7.20): 2 (Bounce) & 3 (King Of Naples)
Leg 5 (7.50): 2 (Sahara) & 3 (Indulged)
Leg 6 (8.20): 9 (Sporty Yankee), 5 (Sixties Groove) & 2 (Zeehan)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page (trainers of winners now have starting prices quoted):
5.50: I am very interested by the 14/1 quote in the trade press about SOUTH SEAS here, despite the 3/16 draw being a potential handicap. Andrew Balding has by far the best ratio in terms of strike rates with two-year-olds of the represented trainers at Windsor during the last five years (see the stats at the foot of the column), whilst the trainer suggested recently that this March foal was a "grand horse, very straightforward and a lovely mover". Others for the overnight mix include EXPRESS, ACT OF FREEDOM and REDGRAVE.
Favourite factor: This juvenile event is a new race with which to open proceedings at Windsor on Monday.
6.20: Three-year-olds usually get the better of these mixed vintage maiden events and I doubt that this race will be an exception to the rule, with vintage representatives at 2/5 (ten of 14 declarations) to win the contest before form is taken into account. The pick of the 'juniors' on this occasion will hopefully prove to be MAJOR ASSAULT, LOLWAH and (possibly) SHONGOLOLO. The trio are listed in order of preference, especially with Clive Cox saddling MAJOR ASSAULT given the form of the stable of late, which includes two Royal Ascot successes last week.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural even money favourite secured a bronze medal alongside a toteplacepot position when finishing behind horses sent off at 7/4 and 20/1.
6.50: Just an 11/2 chance in a much hotter handicap than this at 'headquarters' last time out, PHILADELPHIA might not have been suited to the fast conditions, given that Roger Varian's three-year-old won on the soft at Doncaster back in April. Conditions on Monday might prove ideal for Harry Bentley's mount who is expected to return to winning ways in this company, albeit the declaration of a hood is a little worrying. If the headgear has an adverse effect (worn for the first time on his last assignment), the likes of BALLARD DOWN and SKEAPING might prove to be the chief beneficiaries.
Favourite factor: Seven of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) via ten renewals to date.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
1/1--Medburn Dream (soft)
1/4--Sir Roderic (soft)
7.20: Eight of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, stats which eliminate the bottom five horses in this 'dead eight' event. We are (accordingly) left just the three horses to assess if we take the stats literally and my trio are listed in order of preference as BOUNCE, KING OF NAPLES and SUQOOR. Henry Candy (BOUNCE) had been going through a lean time before Twilight Son won the Group 1 'Diamond Jubilee' on Saturday, his second winner from his last nine runners at the time which suggests that the team is set to start firing consistently again now.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last fifteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six winners.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:
7.50: I have been advising people that Chris Wall has been in good form for the last couple of weeks or so and another 12/1 winner came my way on Saturday, the trainer's fourth win from his last eight representatives. Chris saddles SAHARA here and the four-year-old daughter of Clodovil looks ready to score after a couple of prep races this term. Connections might have most to fear from INDULGED and INKE this time around.
Favourite factor: This is the second of the two new races on the Windsor programme.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
2/5--Dalmarella Dance (2 x good)
8.20: The last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6 whereby Folly Bergere seemingly faces a stiff task at the top of the handicap. SPORTY YANKEE, SIXTIES GROOVE and ZEEHAN could be of interest when the odds are chalked up beside their names on Monday morning. Some of us started out our working lives in 1969 by literally chalking up the runners on blackboards for William Hill in their head office on the south side of Blackfriars Bridge in London though granted, there were nowhere near the number of meetings that punters have to contend with nowadays! Two midweek meetings were the order of the day at opposite ends of the clock, with one greyhound meeting slotted in with just eight races on the relevant cards. 'Change' is not always for the better, which is something to digest in 'Referendum week', not that I am telling you how to vote on Thursday!
Favourite factor: 15 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the last 19 years (five winners), though 14 of the last 17 market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective. Three of the last seven gold medallists have scored at 50/1-20/1-10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday:
4--Richard Hannon (4/29 at Windsor this season) - winners at 25/1-7/2-3/1*-2/1
4--William Knight (1/6 - winner at 3/1)
3--Andrew Balding (0/15)
3--James Fanshawe (1/3 - winner at 3/1*)
3--Rod Millman (1/11 - winner at 3/1**)
2--Charlie Appleby (0/3)
2--Karl Burke (1/3 - winner at 9/2)
2--Tony Carroll (0/7)
2--Henry Candy (0/4)
2--Mick Channon (1/11 - winner at 4/5*)
2--Clive Cox (5/19 - winners at 12/1-4/1-3/1-3/1*-5/2*)
2--James Eustace (0/1)
2--Simon Hodgson (---)
2--Dean Ivory (3/15 - winners at 10/1-9/2-3/1)
2--Hughie Morrison (0/6)
2--Mike Murphy (1/3 - winner at 14/1)
2--Willie Musson (0/2)
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last season:
Chepstow: £239.90 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced (Andrew Balding snared a 57/1 treble last year)
Southwell (NH): £2,650.40 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced (Seamus Mullins notched a 120/1 double last year)
Wolverhampton: £27.90 - 7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Five year record of represented trainers in juvenile races at Windsor for the relevant 5.50 contest:
0/3--Charlie Appleby (Act Of Freedom)
0/3--Willie Musson (Broughtons Knight)
0/7--William Knight (Eternal Dream)
1/20--Rod Millman (Glory Of Paris)
0/2--Mike Murphy (Just Maybe)
3/18--Henry Candy (King Of Nepal)
0/3--Seamus Durack (Plato's Code)
1/16--Hughie Morrison (Private Mission)
0/8--Michael Madgwick (Quothquan)
0/22--George Baker (Raj Balaraaj)
6/47--Charlie Hills (Redgrave)
8/20--Andrew Balding (South Seas)
4/21--William Haggas (Winning Ways)
18/93--Richard Hannon (Express)
3/27--Roger Charlton (Santaflora)
0/1--Martin Keighley (Whatalove)
Out of interest, only Richard Hannon (2/10) and Charlie Hills (1/3) (of the represented trainers on Monday) have saddled juvenile winners at the track this season.