WINDSOR – JUNE 26
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £455.90 (8 favourites: 5 winners & 3 unplaced)
Footnote to why the Placepot paid so well last year despite five winning favourites in the relevant races. One race did the damage. Six runners were declared but two non-runners evolved, creating ‘false figures’ from a Placepot perspective with the units from the N/R’s going on to the favourite which was beaten in the subsequent ‘win only’ contest by a 9/1 chance. As always, scrutinise the non-runners board before ever placing a Placepot wager. Seek the ‘edge’ over your fellow investors whenever possible.
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.50): 7 (Strategic), 2 (Keynote) & 1 (City Gent)
Leg 2 (6.20): 2 (Ebtkaar) & 4 (Plutonian)
Leg 3 (6.50): 4 (Sir Plato), 3 (Meshaykh) & 1 (Rumpole)
Leg 4 (7.20): 6 (Fair Cop), 5 (Open Wide) & 1 (Volatile)
Leg 5 (7.50): 1 (Maid To Remember), 5 (Lightening Dance) & 4 (Mouille Point)
Leg 6 (8.20): 5 (Nathan Mayer) & 9 (The Secrets Out)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.50: I hope we can get off to a good start as was the case last year when majoring on what was a 14/1 chance in the trade press (which I could not believe) which went on to score at 7/4! Upwards and onward by informing that STRATEGIC is the subject of some good reports and it’s worth noting that Richard Hannon sends five runners to the track which he has not done for some time. This has been ‘Hannon territory’ for as long as I can recall but Richard Junior was making a stance recently regarding the low prize money at the track. Hopefully the two parties have settled their differences now for the benefit of punters at least. Roger Varian (KEYNOTE) failed to saddle a winner at Royal Ascot despite sending 17 of his troops to the Berkshire venue last week, though the trainer snared gold with a runner at Lingfield on Saturday. CITY GENT is drawn very wide (14/15) which will not do Ralph Beckett’s Holy Roman Emperor newcomer any favours though six furlongs is better than five, giving Pat Dobbs a little more time to decide his best route as the race unfolds, coupled with the fact that CITY GENT will probably need a mile to bring out his best as a juvenile.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/4 favourite duly obliged.
6.20: Three-year-olds usually get the better of these mixed vintage maiden events which looks certain to be the case again, especially with EBTKAAR having been declared by Roger Varian who looks as though he is going all out to rid himself of last week’s disappointing results down the road at Ascot. Charlie Hills was treated to a ride down the track at Ascot last week courtesy of one of The Queen’s carriages but it’s back to shanks’ pony tonight I’m afraid, though the trainer won’t give a jot if PLUTONIAN can lower the colours of the favourite. This pair should dominate proceedings at the business end of the one mile contest.
Favourite factor: The inaugural even money favourite secured a bronze medal alongside a toteplacepot position when finishing behind horses sent off at 7/4 and 20/1. Last year’s market levelled the score for investors when prevailing at 2/1.
6.50: Sir Michael Stoute was another trainer who drew a blank at the royal meeting (13 runners) though three of his last six runners at other venues have won, stats which support the chance of MESHAYKH, though the official assessor did not take kindly to her recent win at Leicester for which she is punished with an eight pound hike in the weights. Rod Millman is enjoying a fine start to the season given his 14 winners compared to eight at this stage last year. One of those gold madallists twelve months ago won this event, with Rod having declared SIR PLATO this time around. RUMPOLE won here under fast conditions earlier in the year and Hughie Morrison’s Lawman gelding demands respect in this ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners race in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) via eleven renewals to date.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
1/1--Rumpole (good to firm)
2/2--Sir Plato (good & good to soft)
1/3—Fastnet Spin (soft)
7.20: Nine of the eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-11, stats which go against my original selections in the race, namely FAIR COP and OPEN WIDE, the two course winners in the field. I’m still inclined to stick with this pair despite my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendencies though from an insurance perspective, I will add VOLATILE into the mix, James Tate’s raider being the only qualifier via the weight trend on this occasion. Money for the top weight should certainly be heeded if that scenario unfolds during the course of the day. Amanda Perret’s Zhui Feng did us a huge favour when winning the Royal Hunt Cup at 25/1 last week with her only runner at Ascot (the trainer saddles OPEN WIDE here), whilst two of Andrew Balding’s seven runners were placed at 14/1 & 8/1 at the royal venue. Andrew sends out FAIR COP this time around.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/2—Open Wide (good to firm)
1/1—Fair Cop (good to soft)
7.50: The worry here is that a non-runner might rear its ugly head which would turn this event into a nasty little ‘win only’ contest which could be the ruination of many a Placepot investment. In the circumstances, I feel duty bound to offer three of the quintet to get us safely though to the last leg of our favourite wager, presuming we have been successful thus far. The trio in question are MAID TO REMEMBER, LIGHTENING DANCE (another Amanda Perrett declaration with a chance on the card) and MOUILLE POINT. The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite was beaten into second place in a four runner (win only) contest, a result which had a huge effect on the Placepot as detailed above.
8.20: The last eleven winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-6 which is just as well and yours truly has dug a hole for himself at Windsor by including plenty of horses in my Placepot permutation, whereby I am restricting myself to two selections in the ‘lucky last’, naming NATHAN MAYER as the major player. I had decided on the Michael Stoute raider before looking at the weight stats but with Footman and Many Waters running from the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap, the die is well and truly cast. I just hope that Ryan Moore rides Michael’s Nathanial gelding more prominently than was the case at Kempton last time out when NATHAN MAYER was doing all his best work when the race was over. The other option is THE SECRETS OUT down at the foot of the list, with Luke Dace’s course and distance winner having run another decent race when just touched off at Lingfield on Saturday.
Favourite factor: 16 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the last 20 years (six winners), though 15 of the last 19 market leaders have been beaten from a win perspective. Three of the last eight gold medallists have scored at 50/1-20/1-10/1.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—The Secret’s Out (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Hannon (5/24 – loss of 8 points)
3—Mick Channon (0/10)
3—David Evans (4/37 – loss of 14 points)
3—Gary Moore (0/8)
2—Andrew Balding (2/11 – slight loss)
2—Ralph Beckett (1/8 – loss of 5 points)
2—Charlie Hills (1/11 – loss of 5 points)
2—Richard Hughes (2/18 – loss of 1 point)
2—Amanda Perrett (0/6)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (Profit of 1 point)
2—Marcus Tregoning (0/1)
2—Roger Varian (2/4 – Profit of 4 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: Meeting was abandoned
Southwell (NH): £8.50 – 5 favourites – 3 winners & 2 placed (1 non runner)
Wolverhampton: £15.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced