SOUTHWELL NH – MARCH 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £33.70 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £610.32
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £843.97
Average Southwell NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £25,677.55 (2 meetings)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Southwell:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Allow Dallow) & 3 (Cody Wyoming)
Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Santa's Secret), 3 (Somchine) & 5 (Lord Grantham)
Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Monk House) & 8 (Ted's Lad)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Kalanisi Glen), 3 (Dante's Way) & 6 (Minella Experience)
Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Diego Suarez) & 4 (Riddlestown)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Empty The Tank), 5 (Elkstone), 1 (Shimba Hills) & 7 (Miss Fortywinks)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.20: All three horses to secure toteplacepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of 11-7. If we take the brief trend seriously, just three of the six horses should be considered, the pick of the trio being ALLOW DALLOW and CODY WYOMING from my viewpoint. That said, I might just add the insurance of OWEN NA VIEW when placing my own wager nearer flag fall of the opening event on the card.
Favourite factor: Search parties are still out looking for the (8/11 & 5/4) favourites via just the two renewals thus far.
2.50: Five of the seven winners have carried 11-7 or more and just like the scenario on the first race, three 'qualifiers' emerge here. SANTA'S SECRET is preferred to SOMCHINE, especially as the other option (Top Cat Henry) has struggled to complete the course of late. If the weight trends are to be breached on this occasion, LORD GRANTHAM could prove to be the joker in the pack, with Henry Daly having scored with two of his last three runners.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven favouites have won this event, the only beaten market leader having finished out of the frame at odds of 5/4.
Southwell record of course winners in the second race:
3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with MONKHOUSE and TED'S LAD looking the likeliest types to extend the trend. That said, six-year-old SANDYGATE represents Philip Hobbs who will be anxious to put last week's disappointing Cheltenham results behind him. The fact that SANDYGATE is owned by Trevor Hemmings puts added pressure on the trainer, with the owner used to greetings winners the length and the breadth of the land.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include three winners. Six of the seven gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.
3.50: KALANISI GLEN is the lone six-year-old entry in the second heat of the previous event on the card whereby Kim Bailey's raider is the first name on my overnight team sheet. DANTE'S WAY is another Trevor Hemmings runner at Southwell with a realistic chance. MINELLA EXPERIENCE completes my trio against the other six contenders.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous event on the card, whereby the same stats apply.
4.20: Six-year-olds have claimed four of the six Placepot positions via just 19% of the total number of runners thus far, statistics which include a 16/1 winner. Chris Bealby has saddled three of his last four runners to winning effect and his representative DIEGO SUAREZ just happens to be one of the two six-year-olds in the line-up, the other being Charlie Longsdon's top weight MIDNIGHT GEM. DIEGO SUAREZ has to be the call, with consistent RIDDLESTOWN also included in the equation at the time of writing. DIEGO SUAREZ also holds an entry at Wetherby for Tuesday whereby you should note the non runners board before placing your bet on Monday.
Favourite factor: Both (7/4 & 10/3) favourites have claimed Placepot positions by finishing second in their respective events behind winners which were returned at 16/1 & 14/1.
Southwell record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:
4.50: Six and seven-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the last five contests, whilst five of the last six winners were burdened with a minimum weight of 11-2. Just one representative from each vintage has been offered the green light, namely six-year-old EMPTY THE TANK and MISS FORTYWINKS. Both horses will form part of my permutation, whilst considering the addition of ELKSTONE at the overnight stage. Lawney Hill saddled a winner the other day and her raider SHIMBA HILLS is not entirely dismissed in this grade/company. All four horses mentioned in dispatches hail from the 'superior' sector of the handicap as you might have assumed.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three successful market leaders from a win perspective.
Southwell record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/2--Empty The Tank
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Southwell card on Monday:
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners