WINDSOR – MAY 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £2.50 (3 favourites: 1 winners & 2 placed—meeting abandoned after three races due to unsafe ground)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.20): 6 (Highland Cradle) & 3 (Fire Chief)
Leg 2 (5.50): 4 (Comrade Conrad), 1 (Crowned Eagle) & 6 (Secret Advisor)
Leg 3 (6.20): 4 (Last Voyage), 6 (Wildnightinvegas) & 5 (Straight Ash)
Leg 4 (6.50): 4 (Time To Exceed) & 5 (Gulliver)
Leg 5 (7.20): 2 (Kool Kompany), 5 (Firmament) & 7 (Mitchum Swagger)
Leg 6 (7.50): 4 (Call Me Grump) & 2 (Dragons Voice)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
*The weather has an important part to play today if rain hits all parts of the country as has been forecast. There was plenty of wet weather in and around London yesterday and with plenty more to (supposedly) come today, the ground could be anything but good by the time the evening meeting at Windsor gets under way. I am not in the habit of highlighting horses like this but in the circumstances, two soft ground course winners catch the eye at massive prices (50/1 & 40/1) respectively this morning, namely Fastnet Spin (5.50) & Englishman (6.50). This is not a message for you to ‘lump on’, the brief is simply for you to consider from each way angles as savers, if you fancy other horses in the respective events. Either way, best of luck and keep an eye on the weather as you watch the afternoon unfold especially. If the rain arrives as it is meant to the length and breadth of the land, the general advice is to minimise bets today as bookmakers love nothing more than fast changing ground which crates havoc as far as the form book is concerned on a regular basis. If you want confirmation of how the weather looks to the west of London, Kempton (stages an afternoon NH meeting) is not far from Windsor whereby conditions should be similar, if not exactly the same.
As I have changed the general format this morning (to a fashion), I will offer Windsor details this season following four meetings:
Average Placepot dividend: £186.23 – 24 favourites – 6 winners – 4 placed – 14 unplaced (exact science)
Leading represented trainers tonight:
3/6—Clive Cox (+23 LSP) – 2 runners: Don’t Blame Me (6.50) & Mach One (7.50)
2/5—Sir Michael Stoute (+2 LSP) – 1 runner: Highland Cradle (5.20)
2/6—Roger Charlton (+9 LSP) – 1 runner: Comrade Conrad (5.50)
Back to the race by race analysis:
5.20: As I have already suggested, minimise your bets if plenty of rain has fallen as has been forecast for all parts of the country. Although junior (three-year-old) runners tend to win these mixed vintage maiden events, I offered strong reasoning regarding last year’s successful 11/10 market leader. This renewal should revert to type however with Sir Michael Stoute having declared three-year-old HIGHLAND CRADLE who boasts obvious claims. Charlie Fellowes is not a trainer who grabs many headlines though it’s worth noting that his last two runners have won, with CHIEFOFCHIEFS being his only runner on the Windsor card. Out of interest, Charlie’s other runner today is Fire Tree (4.00 Wetherby).
Favourite factor: All ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via nine renewals to date, statistics which include five winners. All nine gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.
5.50: It would be as well to glance down at the favourite details below before you assess this event. Just ten pounds separate this thirteen strong field which also suggests that it might pay to be a layer rather than a player on this occasion. That option has no bearing on the Placepot however, whereby I have to be positive, offering the trio of COMRADE CONRAD, CROWNED EAGLE and SECRET ADVISOR to get us safely through to the next leg of our favourite wager, though any 'win money' will be safely locked away for another day. That said, an each way saver could be in the offing regarding FASTNET SPIN for reasons offered earlier. At 50/1, the David Evans raider might represent each way value if the heavens open.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine renewals during which time, winners were also returned at 33/1-25/1-20/1-14/1-10/1.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
1/1—Comrade Conrad (good)
1/2—Fastnet Spin (soft)
6.20: As every reader will know, ‘Team Hannon’ has monopolised juvenile races here in recent years though Richard had only sent six runners without success (via four meetings) to Windsor this season before declaring five for tonight’s card. Richard saddles two runners (both quoted around the 8/1 mark) which makes for interesting reading, namely STRAIGHT ASH alongside his Kodiac newcomer WILDNIGHTINVEGAS. If Richard is to be denied here, LAST VOYAGE is the obvious juvenile to home in on, given Charlie Appleby’s 4/4 record with his two-year-olds this season.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (includes three winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.
6.50: ENGLISHMAN enters the equation from a big price ‘saver’ perspective as mentioned earlier, though more logical winners include GULLIVER, TIME TO EXCEED and (perhaps) Spakalot.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/1—Alkhor (good to firm)
7.20: Seven four-year-olds have won this event via the last thirteen renewals years though frustratingly, no vintage representatives have been declared on this occasion! ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last eight contests and with KOOL KOMPNAY defending his 1/1 record at the track on behalf of the yard, Ryan Moore’s mount is the first name on the team sheet. FIRMAMENT and MITCHUM SWAGGER are feared most.
Favourite factor: 14 of the 15 winners to date have been returned at odds of 9/2 or less, whilst eleven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (eight winners). That said, the 8/11 market leader (Montiridge) was a Placepot casualty four years ago.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/1—Kool Kompany (good to firm)
7.50: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried 9-1 or more thus far, albeit this is a ‘compressed’ handicap with just five pounds separating all 14 horses in the weights before jockey claims come into play. This unfortunately means that we cannot eliminate any of the runners via the weight stats this time around but upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that CALL ME GRUMPY can beat DRAGONS VOICE and SALEIRI. You can ignore the 5/1 quote in the trade press about the selection who is likely to be sent off at half of those odds.
Favourite factor: Ten of the 17 market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners), though six gold medallists during the last 14 years were returned at 20/1--20/1--12/1--11/1--10/1--10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season following four meetings + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—David Evans (1/12 – loss of 1 point)
5—Richard Hannon (0/6)
4—Ed Dunlop (0/2)
4—Hugo Palmer (0/2)
3—Michael Bell (1/2 – Profit of 4 points)
3—Charlie Hills (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Charlie Appleby (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Ralph Beckett (0/4)
2—David Brown (No runners)
2—Henry Candy (0/2)
2—Jane Chapple-Hyam (No runners)
2—Clive Cox (3/4 – Profit of 23 points)
2—Luca Cumani (0/2)
2—Philip Hide (No runners)
2—Richard Hughes (1/12 – loss of 4 points)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (0/4)
2—Gary Moore (0/4)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £650.80 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Wetherby: £1,395.20 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Kempton: £370.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced