BATH – MAY 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £266.40 (8 favourites: 2 winners - 4 placed - 4 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Bath:
Leg 1 (1.55): 11 (Spray Tan), 10 (John Joiner) & 7 (Quantum Dot)
Leg 2 (2.30): 6 (Fitzwilly), 3 (Saborido) & 5 (Sunny Future)
Leg 3 (3.05): 3 (Cosmic Beau), 5 (Mister Sunshine) & 6 (Mutahaady)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Hot Mustard) & 2 (Bakht A Rawan)
Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (She's All Mine) & 2 (Kafoo)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Sweet Dream Lady) & 2 (Wharane)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Bank Holiday Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: The five winners to date have scored at 28/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-4/1 and depending on which way you look at the results to date, you could either deduce that the quartet of winners carried 8-13 or more or 9-4 or less! Six (of the eleven) horses sit perched between the weight barriers with three time C/D winner SPRAY TAN marginally preferred to JOHN JOINER and QUANTUM DOT. For the record, seven horses have tried to carry 9-5 or more in the race without recording a win.
Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, though we still await the first successful favourite from a win perspective.
Bath record of course winners in the opening event:
2.30: Dual course and distance winner SUNNY FUTURE won the race at odds of 9/2 last year in which I implored readers not to back the 4/5 favourite. Hoping for a similar positive result this time around, the ten-year-old warrior might have most to fear from fellow C/D winners FIZWILLIAM and SABORIDO. Both Mick Channon (FITZWILLY) and Amanda Perrett (SABORIDO) have been saddling plenty of winners to date, whereby this trio should see us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager. I guess it might be asking too much of SUNNY FUTURE to record his highest rated win (77 as opposed to 76) as a ten-year-old though as a winner of nine races down the years, I rarely leave the Malcolm Saunders raider out of the equation at this level, especially here at Bath.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include 9/4 & 1/2 market leaders. That said, last year's 4/5 market leader was turned over in a four runner 'win only' contest.
Bath record of course winners in the second race:
4/22--Sunny Future (won this race last year)
3.05: Races confined to two and three-year-old runners are often dominated by trainer stats according to yours truly who has gleaned a living (one way or the other) from well over forty years of working within the sport. Accordingly, I will opt for COSMIC BEAU, MISTER SUNSHINE and MUTAHAADY this time around, having researched the figures below.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the card.
Represented trainer records with juveniles at Bath during the last five years:
1/11--Andrew Balding (Berkshire Boy)
6/58--Mick Channon (Billy's Boots)
4/11--Tom Dascombe (Cosmic Beau)
3/41--Ron Harris (Fethiye)
4/15--Clive Cox (Mister Sunshine)
7/37--Richard Hannon (Mutahaady)
0/4--Joseph Tuite (Zebspear)
0/6--Dominic Ffrench Davis (Hi Milady)
1/9--Tony Carroll (Lilly Ballerina)
0/13--Jamie Osborne (Secret Coin)
3.40: William Muir enjoyed a fine month in April, securing a 25% strike rate via seven winners, his best percentage via that number of runners (thereabouts) since August 2013. I expect William to score again here with his course and distance winner HOT MUSTARD who could cope with the rain that is supposedly moving in overnight. Faster ground would add more confidence though either way, Martin Dwyer's mount is expected to get the better of BAKHT A RAWAN and UNCLE DERMOT at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have snared gold and silver medals alongside Placepot positions.
Bath record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/11--Pick A Little
4.15: It's worth noting in this Classified contest that just three pounds split the seven runners via the official ratings. The seven runners have failed to win a race between them via an aggregate of 30 assignments to date, whereby confidence cannot be rated at an all time high leading into the contest. Something has to break the duck however and I am pinning my (tentative) hopes on SHE'S ALL MINE and KAFOO. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to PROTEST who should win the race according to the official assessor.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following five renewals, albeit one favourite was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Just one of the four jollies has secured a toteplacpeot position thus far.
4.50: I guess we have to be grateful for one 'dead eight' event on the Placepot card though with the local forecast of 100% chance of rain from around eleven o'clock on Monday morning (Bath is my local track - ten minutes away), bookmakers might suggest that a non runner will rear its ugly head before flag fall, something like an 8/11 chance in my book. Upwards and onward in positive mode however, by suggesting that SWEET DREAM LADY and WHARANE will land the dividend between them if we were live going into the finale.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 joint favourites snared gold and bronze medals last year when finishing in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Bath card on Monday:
3--Andrew Balding (0/3 at Bath this season - last five years: 13/90)
3--Tony Carroll (0/1 - 12/104)
3--Richard Hannon (1/6 - 12/67)
3--Peter Hedger (none this season - 0/7)
2--Mick Channon (0/3 - 22/197)
2--Denis Coakley (none this season - 4/30)
2--Tom Dascombe (0/3 - 8/32)
2--Sylvester Kirk (0/2 - 5/70)
2--William Muir (none this season - 11/65)
2--Jonathan Portman (1/2 - 5/49)
2--Denis Quinn (none this season - 0/2)
2--Malcolm Saunders (0/1 - 13/115)
2--Ian Williams (0/2 - 3/28)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
62 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £17.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced) - 16/1 double on the card for David O'Meara - 4 runners on Monday's card
Windsor: £9.30 (7 favourites - 6 winners & 1 unplaced) - 17/1 double for Richard Hannon - 2 runners there on Monday
Kempton (N/H): £43.90 (6 favourites (3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Warwick: £53.60 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Two meetings this season to date - all fourteen winners were saddled by different trainers
14 races - 15 favourites - 2 winners - 7 placed - 6 unplaced
5 winners recorded at 66/1-28/1-16/1-14/1-12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £558.40