WINDSOR – MAY 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £15.30 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.55): 7 (Out Of The Flames) & 3 (Ellthea)
Leg 2 (6.25): 4 (Dathanna) & 6 (Little Miss Lilly)
Leg 3 (6.55): 4 (Perfect Quest), 5 (Lorelina) & 3 (Turning The Table)
Leg 4 (7.25): 7 (Raucous), 9 (Dancing Star) & 5 (Mr Lupton)
Leg 5 (7.55): 13 (Tirania) & 6 (Italian Heiress)
Leg 6 (8.25): 8 (Genuine Approval), 6 (Fast And Hot) & 2 (Ebbisham)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.55: Richard Hannon’s OUT OF THE FLAMES made a pleasing debut at Ascot ten days ago, though readers looking to back the horse from a win perspective might care to look at the favourite stats below before plunging in. Either way, the 5/4 odds chalked up by the lads and lasses in the trade press office are fanciful in the extreme, with 4/9 being touted by most layers at the time of writing. Mark Johnston sent a horse down from the north to beat the market leader twelve months ago and it could be the turn of Karl Burke this time around with the trainer having offered the green light to his Kodiac filly ELLTHEA, who is a half sister to John Gosden’s useful Von Blucher who was beaten a neck in a warm Sandown event on his debut.
Favourite factor: Both (8/11) favourites had obliged before last year’s 1/5 market leader could only finish second behind a 5/1 chance, albeit Richard Hannon’s raider secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.
6.25: I suggest you read the details below in the favourite factor which outline the problems within the sport at the ‘top level’. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that it should be safe to headline Charlie Appleby’s newcomer DATHANNA, despite the defeat of one of their juvenile hot-pots at Ripon yesterday. This Dubawi filly will obviously need a trip sooner rather than later though that said, she should be good enough to score at the first time of asking, though I would not want to take too short a price about the March foal. Clive Cox has won with three of his five runners at this venue already this season, whilst saddling three of his eight juveniles to winning effect. Money for Clive’s February foal LITTLE MISS LILLY would add interest to proceedings accordingly.
Favourite factor: This was a new race on the card twelve months ago, though not just because of the (then) recent change of maiden races to Novice events. This event had also been 'promoted' to Class 4 status. It’s a new race again now because the event is now contested over six furlongs instead of five so why then (taking both factors into account), do the BHA have this race listed as the sixth renewal of the ‘same contest’? It was the BHA which ‘changed the goalposts’ 15 months ago, yet they have ignored that factor when listing ‘past results’ for this event!
6.55: Conditions should not witness races being abandoned at Windsor this evening compared to the sport of offer just seven days ago. Indeed, we have an opposite scenario is place with fast drying ground in evidence as opposed to rain falling on dry turf this time last week. Connections of LORELINA might not want the sun to sine too strongly with Andrew Balding’s raider having shown a preference for racing on ground with plenty of moisture below the surface. That said, four-year-olds have won six of the seven contests to date, whilst snaring ten of the sixteen available toteplacepot positions whereby LORELINA is fancied as the main threat to Clive Cox’s hat trick seeker PERFECT QUEST. David Simcock is slowly getting his runners into the type of form which produced 17 winners in June last year though he is four behind his April/May figures in 2016 (six gold medallists as opposed to ten twelve months ago) whereby the trainer will want TURNING THE TABLE to figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have finished in the frame thus far via seven renewals (one winner).
Windsor record of course winners in the third race on the card:
1/3—Perfect Quest (good)
7.25: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and with fast improving The Tin Money having lifted the prize twelve months ago, RAUCOUS has a similar look judged on his April success at Chelmsford following a gelding operation. DANCING STAR and MR LUPTON are the other vintage representatives in the field with both horses boasting solid claims on the best of their form.
Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until last year for another winning market leader to come along.
Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:
3/4—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)
1/2—Dancing Star (good)
7.55: TIRANIA is quoted at 8/11 in some lists this morning, as opposed to the 11/10 trade press quote. In case that differential does not sound too extreme, the odds equate to a horse being backed from 4/1 to 12/5 from a percentage perspective. Either way, Pat Cosgrave’s mount is expected to score from ITALIAN HEIRESS.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last thirteen renewals during which time, eleven gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.
8.25: Nine of the last thirteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 (four of the last ten gold medallists have been burdened with 8-13). FAST AND HOT and GENUINE APPROVAL are fancied to land the Placepot dividend for us if we are 'live' going into the final leg accordingly. Connections could have most to fear from EBBISHAM whose trainer Jim Boyle has bounced back to form during the last couple of weeks. FAST AND HOT has been all the rage overnight, though some quiet money has been recorded for GENUINE APPROVAL whose 25/1 trade press quote looks fanciful in the extreme at the time of writing. If the four-year-old continues to attract support into single figures, we can expect a decent effort to be forthcoming. Trainer John Butler saddled a 20/1 winner at the Dente meeting at York last week for good measure.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 13 of the last 21 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.
Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/5—Essenaitch (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Andrew Balding (0/2)
4—David Evans (1/15 – loss of 4 points)
4—Richard Hannon (0/10)
3—Clive Cox (3/5 – Profit of 22 points)
3—Richard Fahey (No runners)
3—William Haggas (No runners)
2—Karl Burke (No runners)
2—Dean Ivory (0/9)
2—Mark Usher (0/1)
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £139.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winnwers & 3 placed
Leicester: £162.50 -6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Redcar: £346.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Towcester: £63.90 – 8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced