WINDSOR – MAY 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £13.50 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor:
Leg 1 (5.50): 5 (Spoof) & 8 (The Love Doctor)
Leg 2 (6.20): 4 (Always Thankful), 8 (Daring Guest), 2 (Hart Stopper) & 15 (Bohemian Paradise)
Leg 3 (6.50): 1 (Daira Prince) & 8 (Rumpole)
Leg 4 (7.20): 14 (Silken Dancer), 13 (Sea Skimmer) & 5 (Clemento)
Leg 5 (7.50): 2 (Prendergast Hill), 1 (Shargia) & 4 (Eskendash)
Leg 6 (8.20): 2 (Hermann) & 9 (Hepplewhite)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.50: Charlie Hills has already saddled a (5/1) winner here at Windsor this season, though the odds on offer about his raider SPOOF will be cramped to say the least, despite the fanciful 5/1 quote in the trade press. SPOOF is even money almost right across the board as I pen this column, even quoted as a shade of odds on in a place or two. Charlie’s early January foal ran well at Newbury in a better race, with connections probably having most to fear from THE LOVE DOCTOR at the second time of asking.
Favourite factor: The last five favourites have secured three gold medals alongside two of the silver variety, whilst claiming Placepot positions.
6.20: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum of 8-12 though unfortunately, that stat serves no purpose this year as all 15 runners qualify. I have left the figures in the mix for those of that like to keep such records. Upwards and onward by suggesting that ALWAYS THANKFUL might atone for recent Pontefract losses, when the 11/10 favourite ran into a John Quinn winner whose yard were going particularly well at the time. DARING GUEST reacted well to a gelding operation when scoring at Lingfield, whilst it’s worth noting that the Fast Company representative was thrown in at the deep end in two of three races on turf last year at Ascot and Sandown. BAHAMIAN ARMS completes my trio against the field from a value for money perspective over HART STOPPER.
Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won this event during the last fourteen years. Twelve of the sixteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the last eleven years.
6.50: The 5/1 quote in the trade press can be ignore about RUMPOLE as Hughie Morrison’s Lawman gelding will be less than half of those odds from what the exchanges are reporting ‘early doors’ this morning. Hughie suggested this time last year that this could be a decent horse in the making and there was a lot to like about his Newbury debut effort. I was expecting more support for Sir Michael Stoute’s only runner on the card (NOBLE CONQUEST), especially with the trainer boasting a recent ratio of 8/22. Keep an eye for a market move if that scenario transpires this morning though either way, DAIRA PRINCE is preferred with racecourse experience on his side.
Favourite factor: The four favourites have secured two gold medals (both sent off at 5/4) and one each of the silver and bronze varieties alongside toteplacepot positions.
7.20: High on numbers but short on potentials winners, this event offers a misleading (competitive) appearance as four horses appear to stand out from the crowd. That said, Roger Charlton (6/13 stats of late) saddles a couple of potential dark horses in CASEMENT and CLEMENTO which could be worth small savers, just in case the result does base over apex for the majority of investors. Godolphin throw a spanner in the works being three-handed in the race, the pick of which hopefully proving to be SILKEN DANCER and SEA SKIMMER.
Favourite factor: Just one of the four market leaders has troubled the judge thus far as we await the first winning favourite in this fifth renewal.
7.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven contests, with SHARGIA and ESKENDASH boasting definite claims on behalf of the vintage. That said, PRENDERGAST HILL is the first of just two course winners on the card and the C/D winner looks booked to go close here for Ed de Giles. Ed’s Raven’s Pass gelding races off a two pound lower mark than when registering that course and distance victory whereby his chance is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have finished in the frame via the last eleven renewals, statistics which include three successful (3/1, 7/4 & 9/4) market leaders. Nine winners were returned at odds of 6/1 or less, with the other two gold medallists having been sent off as 14/1 and 9/1 chances during the study period.
Windsor record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/5—Prendergast Hill (good to firm)
8.20: HEPPLEWHITE strikes me as one of the likelier outsiders on the card to run well, with William Muir already on the scoresheet at the alternative royal venue this term. I’m not quite sure what is going on relating to Richard Hannon’s lack of runners at Windsor this season. Without going into the stats scenario too much, the world and his dog knows that Richard (like his father before him) saddles lots of horses at Windsor year on year but after dismissing a recent meeting entirely, the trainer saddled just one runner tonight. Whatever the reason, the stable could still snare a gold medallist with HERMANN having been declared.
Favourite factor: There is a lot of confusion relating to the history of this event between the BHA and the trade press whereby it might be best to view the race from a ‘blank page’ perspective.
Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/3—Cape Discovery (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Windsor card on Monday – followed by their ratios at the track (three meetings) + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Hughes (1/8 – Level profit/loss on the season)
3—David Evans (1/9 – Profit of 2 points)
3—Dean Ivory (0/6)
3—George Margarson (0/2)
3—William Muir (1/2 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (0/3)
2—Michael Bell (No runners)
2—Roger Charlton (2/4 – Profit of 11 points)
2—Luca Cumani (No runners)
2—James Fanshawe (0/1)
2—Charlie Hills (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Sylvester Kirk (0/3)
2—Hughie Morrison (No runners)
2—Brendan Powell (0/3)
2—Pam Sly (0/2)
2—Roger Varian (No runners)
2—Ed Walker (0/2)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
73 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £44.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Stratford: £249.30 – 10 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced
Chelmsford: £288.20 – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell: £921.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced