NEWCASTLE – NOVEMBER 14
Monday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Dominating), 2 (Too Many Shots) & 3 (La Vien Rose)
Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Alsacienne) & 2 (Jan De Heem)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Dubai Elegance) & 6 (Norweigian Highness)
Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Alexandrakollontai), 7 (Volition) & 9 (Marbooh)
Leg 5 (4.00): 7 (Mon Beau Visage) & 6 (Brilliant Vanguard)
Leg 6 (4.30): 13 (Storm Trooper), 3 (Compas Scooby) & 8 (Tellovoi)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
There is no history to this meeting – Newcastle only opened their A/W doors earlier this season – the Leicester meeting which I have offered down the years was cancelled last week due to the hard ground at the track.
2.00: Mark Johnston boasts level stake profits of 29 points via 17 winners in the Nursery sector in 2016 and with two runners here, Mark looks set in improve his ratio in one of the toughest sectors in the sport. DOMINATING looks to be the pick of the pair having won ‘on sand’ before, though each way investors could secure a profit by adding LA VIEN ROSE to their selections. Certainly from a Placepot angle, I will be looking to include both representatives. TOO MANY SHOTS has not been beaten far in two A/W assignments, potentially offering better value than some of the runners from Newmarket whose trainers do not boast good record in two-year-old handicaps this year. In contrast, two of just nine John Best (TOO MANY SHOTS) runners in Nursery events have won this year.
2.30: Lisa Williamson (Roughlyn) is the only one of the represented trainers to have saddled a winner during the last fortnight though unfortunately, her raider sits six pounds out of the weights. ALSACIENNE and JAN DE HEEM are (somewhat reluctantly) preferred accordingly in a poor contest.
3.00: Saeed Bin Suroor has been supplying yours truly with lots of winners of late, the trainer leading the new A/W Championship season with a ratio of 8/23, stats which have produced five points of level stake profits. Saeed has offered the green light to DUBAI ELEGANCE who overcame a 10/10 draw to score here recently, now being more favourably boxed in trap two. NORWEIGIAN HIGHNESS might prove to be the value for money each way call against the strong selection, given that Kevin Ryan (7/39 since A/W sport was first contested at the venue) has saddled consistent winners at the track, many of them at decent prices whereby his level stake account stands in the black to the tune of 17 points.
3.30: Alistair Whillans boasts recent stats of 3/7 at Newcastle since the new All Weather Championship season began back on October 27th. Alistair’s three winners have produced 27 points of level stake profits whereby his eleven time winner (twice over the seven furlong trip) ALEXANDRAKOLLONTAI is the first name on the overnight team sheet. For the record, three of Alistair’s last nine runners have won. David O’Meara is recovering from a ‘dodgy back end’ (mind how you interpret that information) whereby the chance of his course and distance winner MARBOOH is respected. Sir Michael Stoute has greeted three of his six runners here at Newcastle to winning effect since the venue opened its doors for All Weather business, creating obvious space for VOLITION to be included in the Placepot mix.
4.00: Course and distance winner MON BEAU VISAGE has gained two of his three victories over this specialist seven furlong trip and there is every chance that Graham Gibbons can ride another winner for David O’Meara. BRILLIANT VANGUARD has at last shown signs of realising his obvious ability whereby Kevin Ryan’s raider is taken as the main threat to the selection. David Simcock’s three-year-olds always merit plenty of respect, though his Dubawi raider Jordan Sport has not made a great impression in two A/W sorties to date.
4.30: The last two David Nicholls winners have been greeted at this venue, with ‘Dandy’ boasting a 24% strike rate via 15/2 and 9/2 gold medallists in recent times. David’s only runner on the card is STORM TROOPER who should be up to winning in this grade if adapting to the surface, bearing in mind that his only sortie away from grass did not work from well when the Acclamation representative finished last of twelve at Kempton, albeit the gelding was ‘only’ beaten by ten lengths. Connections are likely to have most to fear from COMPAS SCOOBY from the powerful Roger Varian yard and TELLOVOI, who was only beaten a length despite finishing fifth in a race here a couple of weeks ago. Course and distance ‘winner’ (dead heated here last week) WAHAAB receives the overnight reserve nomination.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newcastle card on Monday – followed by the A/W stats at the track since they opened earlier this year + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Mick Easterby (5/45 – Profit of 1 point)
3—David Brown (0/8)
3—Keith Dalgleish (3/55 – loss of 15 points)
3—Mark Johnston (5/42 – loss of 14 points)
2—David Barron (2/16 – loss of 7 points)
2—Alan Brown (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Scott Dixon (0/23)
2—Jim Goldie (3/45 – loss of 18 points)
2—Richard Guest (10/93 – loss of 7 points)
2—Patrick Holmes (0/18)
2—Iain Jardine (3/27 – Profit of 28 points)
2—Phil Kirby (0/17)
2—David O’Meara (9/68 – loss of 12 points)
2—Michael Mullineaux (0/5)
2—Sir Mark Prescott (5/20 – slight loss)
2—John Quinn (2/32 – loss of 14 points)
2—Kevin Ryan (7/39 – Profit of 17 points)
2—Bryan Smart (1/26 – loss of 23 points)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/6 - Profit of 3 points)
2—Kristin Stubbs (2/17 – Profit of 13 points)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: This is a ‘replacement’ meeting for Leicester – no history
Plumpton: 38.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced