KEMPTON – NOVEMBER 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £58.10 (7 favourites 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (1.00): 7 (Top Tug), 3 (Bandsman) & 2 (Ballyandrew)
Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Oldgrangewood) & 5 (Hahnenkam)
Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Pickamix) & 1 (Coastal Tiep)
Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Barney Dwan), 3 (Potters Legend) & 2 (Chase End Charlie)
Leg 5 (3.05): 2 (Forever Field), 5 (L’Aigle Royal) & 7 (Parish Business)
Leg 6 (3.40): 2 (Josses Hill), 1 (Camping Ground) & 3 (Princeton Royale)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.00: It’s as well to start off with positive figures relating to winners during the last five years at this corresponding fixture. 35 races have been contested producing 36 winners via one dead heat. 17 winning favourites were recorded whilst 20 gold medallists were retuned at a top price of 9/2. Indeed, all 36 winners were returned at 10/1 or less. These stats inevitably produced a poor average Placepot dividend of just £23.33 during the study period. Upwards and onward by suggesting that TOP TUG will surely go close here on his NH debut having contested a flat race off an official mark of 100 not so long ago. That said, BANDSMAN has already proved consistent (albeit without winning) and this pair are preferred to the ‘paper favourite’ New Agenda who already sports a hood which dilutes confidence at this early stage of his ‘timber career’. BALYANDREW catches the eye given his 20/1 quote in the trade press, especially with the Twiston-Davies team in such wonderful form. 11/17 have finished in the first two during the past week, statistics which include four winners. Anything that Nigel saddles at 20/1 or more over these next few days has surely got to be worth an each way saver at least.
Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven favourites during the last decade secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
1.30: LITTLE POP (Nigel Twiston-Davies) and ROBERT’S STAR will understandably attract their fair share of support but the two horses are in danger of ‘beating each other’ in a tussle for the lead up front, which could play into the hands of HAHNENKAM and (particularly) OLDGRANGEWOOD. Dan Skelton (OLDGRANEGEWOOD) came unstuck with a few runners over the course of the weekend, though four of his previous eight raiders had won and the Dan/Harry bandwagon might revert back to type in a race which should not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Kempton card.
2.00: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this contest which will offer confidence of supporters of PICKAMIX who takes on the mighty Nicholls yard which sends out COASTAL TIEP. PICKAMIX represents Charlie Mann who has greeted three of his last five runners in the area reserved from winners, stats which have produced level stake profits of ten points of late. COASTAL TIEP only won a ‘spit and sawdust’ event at Chepstow recently but such is Paul’s talent at finding the right races for his horses, the four-year-old cannot be ruled out of contention. The only other runner in a disappointing field (Rapanui) was sent off at 50/1 before being pulled up in a race at the same welsh venue.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last ten favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include five success market leaders from a win perspective.
2.30: History dictates that all three runners here will be included in my Placepot permutation given novice chase results down the years. Yes I prefer the chances of BARNEY DWAN and POTTERS LEGEND (in that order), though CHASE END CHARLIE is good enough not to be the potential ‘outsider’ in ordinary contests of this nature, whereby his inclusion is warranted.
Favourite factor: Another new event on the Kempton programme and given that just three stables have taken up the challenge, its long odds on that this event will not be featured twelve months on.
3.05: FOREVER FIELD represents Nicky Henderson who has saddled three of his last six runners in the race to winning effect. FOREVER FIELD is tally exposed this season having contested five assignments, securing Placepot positions on every occasion (two victories). The ground has come good again for Nicky’s raider, with connections possibly having most to fear from recent winners L’AIGLE ROYAL and PARISH BUSINESS.
Favourite factor: Although only three favourites have won during the last decade, seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 10/3. ‘Coincidentally’, seven favourites finished in the frame.
3.40: Investors of JOSSES HILL will inevitably turn their heads away when Nicky Henderson’s talented raider approaches each and every fence because without the obstacles in his way, JOSSES HILL is a potential world-beater! Having finished ‘in the two’ in each of his first nine events (winning on four occasions), Nico’s mount would be a warm order to score here but for the presence of CAMPING GROUND who is another individual who could yet win a major price is fully getting his act together. Given the ‘outsider of three’ factor that rears its ugly head all too frequently, Princeton Royale cannot be totally ignored, especially with both of the leading protagonists proving to be anything but ‘bombproof’ regarding their fencing.
Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the seven renewals thus far, with seven of the nine market leaders securing Placepot positions.
Record of the only course winner on Kempton’s card today:
1/3—Josses Hill (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Monday – follow by this season’s stats at the course and then their five year record at the Sunbury circuit:
4 runners—Dan Skelton (0/1 – 5/45)
2—Nicky Henderson (2/9 – 53/185)
2—Alan King (0/4 – 19/148)
2—Tom Lacey (0/1 – 0/3)
2—Gary Moore (1/4 – 7/80)
2—Paul Nicholls (2/4 – 29/139)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/3 – 12/88)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/1 – 7/45)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
37 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £79.40 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): This is a new meeting