Placepot pointers – Monday October 17

PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £286.80 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Mount Moriah). 7 (Baileys Apprentice & 9 (Good Time Ahead)

Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (Benjamin Thomas) & 6 (Lucky Mistake)

Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Empress Ali), 9 (Darrington) & 6 (Indy)

Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Dowayla) & 2 (D’bai)

Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (Alf Guineas) & 6 (Timekeeping)

Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Fun Mac). 6 (Oriental Fox) & 3 (Cayirli)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: 16 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less (14 have been burdened with a maximum of 9-0), and the pick of the five runners emerging from the ‘superior’ section of the handicap include BAILEYS APPRENTICE (drawn 8/11) and GOOD TIME AHEAD (2).  MOUNT MORIAH (6) demands plenty of respect with Ralph Beckett having scored with both of his juvenile representatives at Pontefract during the last five years.  Horses drawn in trap 1 have finished in the frame three times during the last five years as you can see below, as well as claiming toteplacepot positions in six of the last twelve contests.  SILVER LINK (1) is nominated as the overnight reserve accordingly, despite the fact that Steve Drowne’s mount is due to carry 9-5.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 21 favourites during the last 17 years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

9-11-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

1-5-4 (13 ran-soft)

7-5-4 (14 ran-heavy)

8-1-2 (8 ran-heavy)

6-1-2 (14 ran-good)

12-5-3-10 (17 ran-good)

12-9-17 (14 ran-good)

8-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

7-6-2 (12 ran-good to firm)

17-16-5-14 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-5-2-1 (16 ran-good)

5-11-1-12 (16 ran-good to soft)

4-13-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

16-18-2-19 (19 ran-good)

10-9-13-2 (19 ran-good to firm)

4-7-1-13 (20 ran-soft)

4-11-20-9 (18 ran-soft)

16-2-18-1 (20 ran-heavy)

9-20-4-11 (19 ran-good)

18-16-4-19 (20 ran-soft)

20-16-17-7 (19 ran-good to soft)

Record of represented trainers in Nursey events at all venues this season:

1/5—Luca Cumani (Party Nights)

1/32—John Quinn (Actualisation)

2/16—Ed Dunlop (Crystal Dome)

2/12—Ralph Beckett (Mount Moriah)

0/3—Marcus Tregoning (Slver Link)

1/16—Ann Duffield (Miss Bates)

14/100—Mark Johnston (Baileys Apprentice)

4/35—Karl Burke (Ladofash)

0/4—Phil Kirby (Good Time Ahead)

1/2--Tom Tate (Lucy’s Law)

0/3—Jonathan Portman (Poetic Force)

2.40: Richard Fahey has saddled two of the last five winners of this juvenile event when represented and the trainer has offered the green light to LUCKY MISTAKE on this occasion, albeit Tony Hamilton’s mount is completely exposed now.  Others to consider include BENJAMIN THOMAS who appears to be the main threat this time around.

Favourite factor: Five clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst 16 of the 22 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

9-6-10 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-6-11 (12 ran-soft)

4-5-3 (10 ran-heavy)

2-12-5 (12 ran-heavy)

9-7-11 (14 ran-good)

9-3-4 (10 ran-good)

6-3-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

2-16-1 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-8-12 (13 ran-good)

5-7-4 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-6-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

4-10-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

2-3-4 (12 ran-good)

8-1-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

4-5-1 (10 ran-good to firm)

6-2-17 (17 ran-soft)

15-10-17 (18 ran-soft)

3.10: Last year’s nominated trio against the field produced a 55/1 Exacta forecast between them and hoping to carry on the good work, EMPRESS ALI, DARRINGTON and soft ground winner INDY will carry the hopes of yours truly this time around.  The alert readers among you will note that four and five-year-olds carry my Placepot cash which is an obvious way to go, given that these vintage representatives have won six of the last seven renewals between them (three each).

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Darrington (good to firm)

3.40: Saeed Bin Suroor is back in form after a torrid year by his high standards and I’m hopeful that DOWAYLA will carry on the recent good work of his inmates at Newmarket.  Champion jockey Jim Crowley takes the ride, having won on three of five juveniles that Jim has ridden for the stable during the last five years. D’BAI is the obvious danger from what we have witnessed from the opposition thus far.

Favourite factor: Eight clear market leader, one co and one joint favourite have won in the last 19 years, whilst 17 of the 22 favourites secured toteplacepot dividends during the study period.

4.10: Three-year-olds have secured eight of the nine toteplacepot positions to date, albeit from over 70% of the runners which have contested just three renewals to date.  Vintage representatives are around the 4/9 mark to extend the good run before the form book is consulted, with ALF GUINEAS being the call over TIMEKEEPING.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 favourite routed the opposition when scoring by nine lengths for Luca Cumani three years ago, though Luca's 10/11 market leader found one too good for him 12 months later, albeit the jolly also claimed a toteplacepot position.  Last year’s 2/1 market leader snared bronze along with a Placepot position.

4.40: Pontefract's obsession with hold staying races at every meeting drags on though to be entirely fair, it's just about the only complaint I have about the venue. These events are more like graded greyhound races as old rivals shake hooves before going in the traps to see whose day it is going to be from meeting to meeting.  That said, I know some punters will hold their own (more positive) views but I can never get away from the fact that horses which lack pace to contest shorter events defies the intention of the sport.  Yes, thousands of horses contest races over two miles and more in the NH sector, though the discipline of jumping timer makes that a spectacle worth viewing each and every time.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that FUN MAC, ORIENTAL FOX and CAYIRLI should land the dividend between them if we are live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/5 market leader duly obliged.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/25—Riptide (good & good to firm)

2/16—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday:

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5 runners—Richard Fahey (10/59 this season – Profit of 7 points)

4—Michael Appleby (2/18 – Profit of 3 points)

4—John Quinn (3/17 – loss of 2 points)

3—David Barron (1/11 – loss of 6 points)

3—Karl Burke (1/18 – loss of 9 points)

3—Mark Johnston (11/39 – loss of 4 points)

3—Roger Whitaker (0/8)

2—Eric Alston (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

2—Charlie Appleby (2/5 – slight loss)

2—Ed Dunlop (1/4 – slight profit)

2—Mick Easterby (1/20 – loss of 5 points)

2—James Given (2/10 – Profit of 12 points)

2—Richard Guest (3/16 – Profit of 17 points)

2—David Menuisier (No runners)

2—Paul Midgley (1/19 – loss of 15 points)

2—Hughie Morrison (0/2)

2—David O’Meara (0/26)

2—Saeed Bin Suroor (1/6 – level on the season)

2—Tom Tate (1/6 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Marcus Tregoning (0/3)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

87 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Windsor: £69.30 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Plumpton: £37.50 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Pontefract overview - relating to their juvenile events at 2.10, 2.40 & 3.40

5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:

2.10:

No runners—Luca Cumani (Party Nights)

1/21—John Quinn (Acturisation)

1/3—Ed Dunlop (Crystal Diome)

2/2—Ralph Beckett (Mount Moriah)

0/1—Marcus Tregoning (Silver Link)

6/32—Ann Duffield (Miss Bates)

9/57—Mark Johnstojn (Baileys Apprentice)

1/14—Karl Burke (Ladofash)

1/4--Phil Kirby (Good Time Ahead)

0/4—Tom Tate (Lucy’s Law)

0/2—Jonathan Portman (Poetic Force)

2.40:

0/9—Nigel Tinkler (Sheepscar Lad)

1/21—John Quinn (Benjamin Thomas)

0/9—Richard Guest (Breathoffreshair & Unonithinjonsnow)

No runners—Henry Spiller (Broughtons Story)

18/73—Richard Fahey (Lucky Mistake)

0/1—William Jarvis (Red Guana)

No runners—John Berry (Sussex Girl)

0/5—Roger Whitaker (Orientelle)

1/6—James Given (Paquita Bailanna)

3.40:

1/7—Marco Botti (Al Hamdany)

4/13—Charlie Appleby (D’bai)

18/73—Richard Fahey (Forest Ranger)

3/15—William Haggas (Good Omen)

9/57—Mark Johnston (Monticello)

1/5—Saeed Bin Suroor (Dowayla)

0/3—Keith Dalgleish (Euro Nightmare)

0/12—David O’Meara (Reachforthestars)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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