LEICESTER - OCTOBER 24
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,483.10 (5 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced – 1 W/D)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (1.40): 6 (Gala Celebration), 10 (Penny Arcade), 1 (Imperial City) & 9 (Auric Goldfinger)
Leg 2 (2.10): 11 (Breaking Free), 8 (Harry Beau) & 9 (Royal Cosmic)
Leg 3 (2.40): 11 (Infinity), 10 (Cockney Island) & 12 (Mecca’s Missus)
Leg 4 (3.15): 9 (El Vip) & 5 (Father Bertie)
Leg 5 (3.45): 11 (Contentment) & 5 (Mulzim)
Leg 6 (4.20): 3 (Moderah) & 4 (Noble Gift)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.40: 13 of the 16 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less, whilst six of those gold medallists were burdened with a maximum of 8-13. The theory was nicely played out last year when the 9/1 winner (Smart Mover) was the first horse mentioned in my analysis. Nine of the fourteen runners ‘qualify’ via the weight stats, whilst the bottom five horses carry 8-13 or less, as have four of the last five gold medallists. Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of GALA CELEBRATION, PENNY ARCADE, AURIC GOLDFINGER and IMPERIAL CITY.
Favourite factor: Six of the 14 winners of this event in recent times have been returned at 20/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-11/1-10/1 alongside three winning favourites. Seven of the 17 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.
2.10: Taking the stats as read from the opening event, the chances of BREAKING FREE, HARRY BEAU and ROYAL COSMIC are respected in division two of this two-year-old handicap. That said, this looks to be the more competitive heat of the two races. BREAKING FREE gets the marginal vote from a win perspective, especially as trainer John Quinn targeted the race to winning effect twelve months ago.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening (Nursery) event on the Leiceaster card, whereby the same stats apply.
2.40: The terms and conditions of this Claiming event point towards three-year-olds who lead 19-9 via the available toteplacepot positions, whilst the last eight winners all carried a maximum burden of 8-13. The stats and facts lead to a short list of the bottom three horses in the list, namely INFINITY, COCKNEY ISLAND and MECCA’S MISSUS.
Favourite factor: Just one (4/1 joint) favourite scored via nine renewals during the last 12 years, whilst four of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science). Last year’s 5/4 market leader was withdrawn before a new market could be formed. Fortunately for people on the market leader from a Placepot perspective, the second favourite won the race whereby non-runner rules applied successfully.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/5—Mecca’s Missus (good to firm)
3.15: Three and four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 14 renewals of this event (juniors lead 7-5 in the process), whilst seven of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1. It defies belied that just three of the ten declarations are made up from the relevant vintages, with three-year-old raider EL VIP being joined by FOX TROTTER and FATHER BERTIE. The first and last named representatives are preferred on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Four of the last fourteen renewals have been secured by favourites, though five other scorers were returned at 33/1-16/1-11/1-10/1-10/1. Nine of the seventeen favourites finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/2--Beach Bar (soft)
1/3—Knight Owl (good)
3.45: Horses at the head of the market had totally dominated this event until a rogue 14/1 chance emerged five years ago – after which the race revered to type until a 16/1 winner was recorded twelve months ago. William Haggas waxed lyrical about his Cacique filly CONTENTMENT back in the spring, though her ten length defeat at odds of 1/2 last time out was a bone shaker and no mistake, especially after William’s April foal had run so well at the first time of asking. That said, the Salisbury winner won a Group 3 contest next time up so Ryan Moore’s mount is given another chance. Others to consider include MULZIM and DIMITRE. No Not Again was fancied to run well the last day but Richard Hannon’s was a well beaten favourite.
Favourite factor: Favourites have a fine record in this event as five of the ten market leaders have prevailed. Nine of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame, with three of the four beaten favourites having secured the silver medals in their respective events.
4.20: MODERAH is dropped down in class for this Class 2 event and having won on yielding ground before, connections of the James Fanshawe’s raider will want ‘half term weather’ to rear its ugly head I’ll wager, to a fashion at least. Well beaten in two decent event this term, MODERAH can bounce back to winning ways, chiefly at the expense of last year’s gold medallist NOBLE GIFT. These two course and distance winners should complete the job for us if we have safely negotiated the first five legs of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 7/4 market leader duly prevailed in 2014, though last year’s 5/4 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a seven runner contest.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2--Moderah (good to soft)
1/3—Noble Gift (soft)
1/3—Stockhill Diva (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Monday – this year’s Leicester stats + profit/loss evaluation:
6 runners—Tony Carroll (1/17 – loss of 14 points)
4—Michael Appleby (2/27 – loss of 11 points)
4—David Evans (0/20)
4—William Muir (1/7 – loss of 2 points)
3—Richard Fahey (7/32 – Profit of 10 points)
3—James Fanshawe (0/2)
3—Richard Hannon (7/41 – slight loss)
3—Mark Johnston (1/23 – loss of 21 points)
3—Brendan Powell (0/6)
2—Hwenry Candy (2/11 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Declan Carroll (2/6 – Profit of nine points)
2—Tim Easterby (1/10 – slight loss)
2—Rae Guest (2/7 – Profit of 6 points)
2—Grace Harris (0/3)
2—William Knight (0/3)
2—Michael Mullineaux (0/6)
2—David O’Meara (2/16 – loss of 7 points)
+ 44 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
103 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £9.20 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced
Redcar: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced