PONTEFRACT - OCTOBER 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £2,837.90 (9 favourites - No winners - 2 placed - 7 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Eagle’s Stare) & 5 (Hamada)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Novoman), 4 (High Acclaim) & 1 (Kreb’s Cycle)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Rainbow Rebel) & 2 (Blair House)
Leg 4 (3.30): 9 (Monjeni) & 4 (Leoncavello)
Leg 5 (4.00): 15 (Totally Magic), 4 (The Salmon Man) & 12 (John Caesar)
Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Torrenar), 3 (La Contessa) & 2 (Harry Champion)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Last year’s result (see details below) set up the great Placepot dividend twelve months ago. Godolphin has claimed four of the last seven winners of this opening event on the card and with EAGLES STARE and HAMADA representing the blue silks, the odds on another winner are likely to be the negative side of even money from a ‘coupled’ perspective. After last year’s result however (see the favourite stats below), I am offering plenty of respect to Ann Duffield’s Mayleen, especially as the trainer has only saddled more juvenile winners at Beverley and Ripon than she has managed here at Pontefract during the last five years.
Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last 19 years. 16 of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process. The biggest priced winner during the lengthy study period obliged at 12/1 before last year’s boil over when a 2/9 chance finished out with the washing, well behind the 50/1 (Ann Duffield trained) winner.
2.30: 11 of the last 14 winners have carried weights of 8-12 or more which suggests that the bottom seven horses in the handicap can be eliminated from our enquiries. This fits into my plan anyway, as NOVOMAN, HIGH ACCLAIM and KREB’S CYCLE were always going to be short listed before I looked up the stats for the contest.
Favourite factor: The successful 2/1 market leader four years ago was the first to score in 15 years, whilst eight ’jollies’ had secured toteplacepot positions in the process before three of the last five favourites finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/3—Father McKenzie (good to soft)
Record of the represented trainers in Nursery events at all venues in 2016:
7/79—Richard Hannon (Kreb’s Cycle)
4/12—William Haggas (Novoman)
5/32—David Evans (Letmestopyouthere)
0/4—Roger Teal (High Acclaim)
0/2—Steph Hollinshead (Stoneyford Lane)
1/25—John Quinn (Halawan)
3/16—Michael Dods (Grinty)
5/25—Mick Channon (Father McKenzie)
0/4—Michael Appleby (Our Greta)
1/34—Tim Easterby (Ocelot)
8/80—Richard Fahey (Heatongrad & Yarmouk)
1/10—Mark Usher (Kings Heart)
3.00: Mark Johnston has saddled two of the last six winners of this event and Mark means business again here by the look of things having declared multiple winner RAINBOW REBEL and WHITMAN. The first named Acclamation gelding is on a five timer here, with connections probably having most to fear from BLAIR HOUSE. There will be worse outsiders on the card than Billy Roberts I’ll wager with Richard Guest having scored with two 20/1 winners via his last three runners.
Favourite factor: Just two clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last 19 years, whilst only nine of the 20 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions.
3.30: Sir Mark Prescott & Luke Morris will still be celebrating their Longchamp victory on Sunday but it’s time to come back down to earth and MONJENI could continue the winning thread here, arguably with LEONCAVELLO and (possibly) Giant Redwood to beat.
Favourite factor: The two joint (7/2) favourites both finished out of the frame twelve months ago.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/2--Medina Sidonia (good to firm)
2/24—Riptide (good & good to firm)
1/12—Tuscan Gold (good to firm)
2/15—Madam Lilibet (soft & heavy)
4.00: TOTALLY MAGIC represents Richard Whitaker who has saddled plenty of winner these last few weeks, many of them at decent prices and TOTALLY MAGIC can continue the good run of the yard. JOHN CAESAR is given an alternative each way potential play alongside the THE SALMON MAN, who seldom runs a bad race, especially from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 favourite finished nearer last than first.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
2/4—Ralphy Boy (good & good to firm)
1/2—Shouranour (good to firm)
1/3—Sands Chorus (heavy)
4.30: Five of the last six winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones, and the pick of the relevant quartet of qualifiers in the Placepot finale are TORREMAR, LA CONTESSA and HARRY CHAMPION, the trio being listed in order of preference.
Favourite factor: The nine favourites have secured an aggregate of three gold and two silver medals to date whilst gaining toteplacepot positions in the process. Three of the last four winners have scored at 25/1-14/1-10/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Monday:
5—Richard Fahey (10/55 this season - Profit of 10 points to level stakes)
5—Mark Johnston (11/34 – level on the season to date)
4—Charlie Appleby (0/1)
4—Tim Easterby (3/32 – loss of 1 point)
4—Micky Hammond (0/28)
3—Michael Appleby (2/16 – Profit of 5 points)
3—Karl Burke (1/16 – loss of 7 points)
3—Richard Guest (2/14 –Profit of 11 points)
3—Kevin Ryan (5/29 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/11)
2—Michael Dods (1/29 – loss of 23 points)
2—Roger Fell (---)
2—James Given (1/8 – loss of 1 point)
2—William Haggas (4/7 – level)
2—Richard Hannon (0/3)
2—Brendan Powell (0/1)
2—John Quinn (3/16 – loss of 1 point)
2—Marcus Tregoning (0/2)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
89 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Windsor: £38.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell (NH): This is a new fixture on the racing calendar
Pontefract overview - relating to their juvenile events at 2.00 & 2.30
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:
1/20—John Quinn (Actualisation)
9/55—Mark Johnston (Avantgardist & The Blues Master)
1/4--Saeed Bin Suroor (Eagle’s Stare)
1/3—Philip Kirby (Good Time Ahead)
3/12—Charlie Appleby (Hamada)
1/13—Karl Burke (Master Degree)
0/3—Paul Cole (Physicist)
6/31—Ann Duffield (Mayleen)
1/6—Richard Hannon (Kreb’s Castle)
3/14—William Haggas (Novoman)
0/4—David Evans (Letmestopyouthere)
No runners—Roger Teal (High Acclaim)
No runners—Steph Hollinshead (Stoneyford Lane)
1/20—John Quinn (Halawan)
1/16—Michael Dods (Grinty)
4/27—Mick Channon (Father McKenzie)
1/10—Michael Appleby (Our Greta)
3/43—Tim Easterby (Ocelot)
18/71—Richard Fahey (Heatongrad & Yarmouk)
No runners—Mark Usher (Kings Heart)