KEMPTON – OCTOBER 31
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £15.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 1 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Cliffhanger), 8 (Many Dreams) & 9 (Encore Moi)
Leg 2 (2.50): 7 (Yalawin) & 5 (Next Challenge)
Leg 3 (3.20): 7 (Issue) & 5 (Electrify)
Leg 4 (3.50): 3 (Dream Of Summer) & 5 (Torment)
Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Rousayan), 2 (Up In Lights) & 8 (Inke)
Leg 6 (4.50): 11 (I Am Not Here), 7 (Sennockian Star) & 3 (Sam Missile)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Jim Crowley’s appetite for winners is seemingly unquenchable and having been booked to ride Paul Cole’s CLIFFHANGER in the opening race, Jim could make a good start to the meeting at the Sunbury circuit. The form figures might make the three-year-old Canford Cliffs raider look exposed, but those six numbers alongside his name are the only assignments contested to date, whereby CLIFFHANGER has less than five and a half miles on his racing clock. Beaten favourite MANY DREAMS might be worth another chance in this grade/company, arguably alongside ENCORE MOI.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 9/2 favourite duly obliged.
2.50: YALAWIN was giving valuable racing experience away when finishing third behind two half decent ‘benchmarks’ at Newbury at the first time of asking and Roger Varian’s Lawman representative can go close to winning here. Saeed Bin Suroor’s newcomer NEXT CHALLENGE is the potential joker in the pack however, especially with the team almost back to their best after enduring a torrid season.
Favourite factor: The inaugural frame last year was filled with horses returned at 5/1 – 7/1 – 7/4*.
3.20: Provided we forgive the Nayef raider ISSUE her debut tantrums around the stalls area at the first time of asking, there are plenty of reasons why James Fanshawe’s filly can run well. ELECTRIFY has not exactly ‘pulled up trees’ thus far but in a race that might not prove difficult to win, Jeremy Noseda’s Invincible Spirit filly can surely become competitive at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 7/4 market leader secured a Placepot position by finishing second (despite being beaten by six lengths) when trounced by a 33/1 chance which was not seen before - and has been seen since!
3.50: Andrew Balding saddles just the one runner on the card in DREAM OF SUMMER and the course winner is the first name on my team sheet. Snaring a 440/1 double last Saturday week, a few of Andrew’s runners have subsequently finished in the frame, one of which was beaten less than two lengths at 33/1. DREAM OF SUMMER will be sent off at far shorter odds but either way, a winner is a winner at this tough time of year and hopefully Rob Hornby’s useful three pound claim will aid and abet our chance to winning effect. Richard Hannon’s debut two-year-old winner TORMENT makes a belated seasonal debut but having won at the first time of asking last year, we can presume that the Dark Angel gelding is not a ‘stuffy type’ of individual. What concerns me more (to a fashion) is the declaration of first time blinkers but as a horse that was only sent off as a 12/1 chance in Listed company last year, I’ll take the chance that Richard has his March foal primed for action. With less than four miles on his racing clock, TORMENT could hardly be described as being ‘fully exposed’!
Favourite factor: Yet another market leader snared a Placepot position twelve months ago without winning its respective event, an 11/8 silver medallist in this instance.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Dream Of Summer
4.20: ROUSAYAN was only beaten two and a quarter lengths on his one A/W assignment to date as a 25/1 chance and with David O’Meara’s stable seemingly on the way back after enduring a quiet spell by their high standards, Jim Crowley’s mount is taken to reward each way supporters. Others for the overnight mix include UP IN LIGHTS and INKE. Jacob Black does not seem to have recovered from gaining four victories via seven assignments at one stage last season. That said, the Keith Dalgleish raider is now only two spots higher than his last winning mark. I will still take a watching brief for now however.
Favourite factor: Horses which were sent off at 13/2 & 16/1 proved too sharp for the 7/2 market leader which finished third at 7/2 twelve months ago.
Record of the four course winners in the fifth race:
4.50: It’s a long way to send a lone representative down from the northern region of Yorkshire to contest a race though the prize money on offer has (understandably) lured Brien Ellison into filling his petrol tank to the limit having declared I AM NOT HERE in the last leg of our favourite wager. Brian secured a 107/1 treble on Thursday which will assist in the payment of diesel for the trip and there is every chance that the five pound claimer in the saddle in this Class 2 event will make the difference between victory and defeat. Callum Shepherd has ridden over 30% of his 46 winners for Brian to date and I AM NOT HERE is my sporting each way nap on the card. Connections might have most to fear from SENNOCKIAN STAR and SAM MISSILE.
Favourite factor: Both favourites thus far finished out of the frame.
Record of the five course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Monday alongside 2016 stats & profit/loss ratios:
3 runners—James Fanshawe (8/38 – loss of 6 points)
3—Richard Hannon (11/76 – loss of 7 points)
3—David O’Meara (1/7 – loss of 1 point)
3—Derek Shaw (1/27 – loss of 2 points)
2—Marco Botti (5/37 – loss of 15 points)
2—Eve Johnson Houghton (4/32 – Profit of 26 points)
2—Mark Johnston (10/45 – Profit of 12 points)
2—Gary Moore (6/55 – loss of 23 points)
2—Jeremy Noseda (Profit of 3 points)
2—David Simcock (6/43 – loss of 11 points)
2—Marcus Tregoning (0/13)
2—Mark Usher (1/19 – loss of 9 points)
+ 44 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
72 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Plumpton: £63.90 – 10 favourites: 1 winner – 4 placed – 5 unplaced
Hereford: This is new meeting
Kempton overview - relating to their juvenile event at 2.50 - represented trainer stats in the two-year-old sector in 2016:
6/40—Richard Hannon (Dick Tracy)
No runners—Marcus Tregoning (Imphal & Perla Blanca)
0/2—Eve Johnson Houghton (Jake’s Hill)
0/4—Owen Burrsows (Mafaaheem)
1/6—Saeed Bin Suroor (Next Challenge)
0/4—Pat Phelan (Spirit Of Belle)
2/14—Roger Varian (Yalawin)