BRIGHTON – SEPTEMBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £627.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 6 (Lady Godiva) & 1 (Daybreak)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Perfect Pastime), 6 (Lucky Di) & 7 (Angelical Eve)
Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Princess Lyla), 4 (One For June) & 3 (Queen of Kalahari)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Alwaysandforever), 3 (Sugardrop) & 2 (Shankara)
Leg 5 (4.00): 3 (Chough) & 1 (The Special One)
Leg 6 (4.30): 6 (Lawfilly), 1 (With Approval) & 2 (Alketios)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Monday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Richard Hannon has saddled the two of the last three winners of the race (Richard was not represented in the inaugural contest) whereby the chance of LADY GODIVA is fully respected, especially with the trainer having scored with two of his three runners here at Brighton yesterday when securing a 12/1 double. Richard's Camelot filly will be running on half decent ground for the first time whereby her first two efforts might have offered a false impression relating to what she is capable of. Holly Doyle’s three pound claim is also a positive factor in a race which might not take a great deal of winning. DAYBREAK undoubtedly sets the standard though let’s be honest, the bar has not been set very high thus far regarding the seven experienced runners in the field. On the positive side, two of Hughie Morrison’s last eight runners have won, both gold medallists having hailed from his juvenile contingent. Newcomers Living In The Now and Musical Theatre would not have to be anything out of the ordinary to figure prominently.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame (one winner at 5/2), though it’s worth noting that a 4/9 market leader was beaten in a win only contest in the inaugural contest in 2013.
2.30: The appropriate winner in 2014 was called Bookmaker, especially as the first three winners of this event scored at 25/1, 16/1 & 12/1. It’s hardly surprising that four time course winner PERFECT PASTIME has attracted some money overnight in a very average contest, whereby the 11/1 quote of Bet365 stands out from the crowd at the time of writing. Jim Boyle saddled a couple of winners in August which offers some confidence in a season which has not panned out particularly well for the trainer. Peter Hedger’s last three runners have snared one gold medal and two of the silver variety whereby LUCKY DI is another each way type to consider, especially as Peter has only saddled more turf winners at Goodwood and Newbury than he has secured at Brighton since the old king died. George Baker secured a 32/1 double on the corresponding card last year which offers hope for ANGELICAL EVE from my viewpoint. In a race which has bookmakers result written all over it, my three ‘outsiders’ are taken against the field in speculative fashion.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (via four renewals) have secured toteplacepot, statistics which include last year’s successful 11/4 market leader.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
4/15—Perfect Pastime (4 x good)
1/3—Strictly Carter (good to firm)
3.00: The favourite factor stats below are worth more than a glance given the appalling record of market leaders in this event, albeit after just four renewals. Nursery events (two-year-old handicaps) have a habit of kicking investors in the teeth at this time of year as trainers are ever more trying to win races in any shape or form in order to get orders in the for the winter from their respective owners. This is especially so in the juvenile division, as handlers try to eek out any improvement they can obtain via ‘headgear’ or any other way they can conjure up a winner. The first three offerings from PRINCESS LYLA camouflaged what was to come when the Richard Hughes raider scored 12/1 in her first Nursery contest. Sure enough, the Arakan filly followed up successfully in another two-year-old handicap at Wolverhampton and with five pound claimer Finley Marsh retained in the saddle, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the hat trick will be landed in this grade/company. I have not entirely written off the chance for ONE FOR JUNE who has contested warm races on her last two outings, whilst QUEEN OF KALAHARI in also added into the mix.
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has secured a Placepot position and even then the 1/2 chance was beaten from a win perspective! Two of the last three winners triumphed at 25/1 & 20/1.
Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/1—Haveoneyourself (good to firm)
3.30: Trainers have to make you laugh at times because when handlers up and down the country are screaming out for races confines to fillies and/or mares, just three declarations for this relevant new race on the card have ensued. It might not be as bad if we had a trio of three-year-olds of similar ability but with ALWAYSANDFOREVER seemingly a class apart here, most punters at the track will retire to the bar, especially with any warmth in non-existent sun in most parts of the country only being conspicuous by its absence. That said, many ‘Potters’ will have learned the lesson from yesterday when ‘win only races’ (as documented on this service yesterday) can destroy many a Placepot dream, whereby SUGARDOP and SHANKARA (refused to race last time out) are added into the equation just in case lightning strikes twice in as many days on the Sussex downs. That said, Luca Cumnani (ALWAYSANDFOREVER) has saddled five of his last 13 runners to winning effect, stats which have produced over 15 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card.
4.00: Four of the five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates all bar the top three horses in the list when taking jockey claims into account. CHOUGH and Ali Stronge’s hat trick seeker THE SPECIAL ONE are ahead of HARLEQUIN ROCK in the queue on current form (though Mick Quinn – Harlequin Rock - can produce the odd rabbit out of the hat), which takes us straight in the last Placepot race on the card. Next!
Favourite factor: The five favourites have secured three gold medals and two of the silver variety thus far, securing Placepot position in every race thus far.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/4—The Special One (good to firm)
1/5—Suni Dancer (good)
4.30: Although the relevant seven pound claimer drops LAWFILLY below the ‘superior’ weight barrier (see previous race details for this second heat), the Richard Hughes Lawman filly is impossible to ignore from a Placepot perspective. Further up the handicap, I am not surprised by the overnight support for WITH APPROVAL, whilst ALKETIOS should make the frame representing the dual purpose yard of ‘local’ trainer Chris Gordon.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, whereby the same (positive) favourite stats apply.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/6—With Approval (good)
3/23—Lutine Charlie (good – good to firm- firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Monday – followed by their stats at the track yesterday:
3 runners—Tony Carroll (No runners at the track yesterday)
3—Richard Hughes (0/2)
3—Seamus Mullins (No runners)
2—George Baker (No runners)
2—Jim Boyle (No runners)
2—Mick Channon (0/2)
2—Julia Feilden (No runners)
2—Ed de Giles (0/1)
2—Richard Hannon (2/3)
2—Charlie Hills (No runners)
2—Gary Moore (1/2)
2—Hughie Morrison (No runners)
2—Neil Mulholland (No runners)
2—Tony Newcombe (No runners)
2—Mick Quinn (0/1)
2—David Simcock (0/1)
2—Joseph Tuite (0/1)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
75 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ripon: £70.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Windsor: £23,856.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced