BRIGHTON - SEPTEMBER 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £173.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (One Big Surprise), 6 (Invade) & 3 (Symposium)
Leg 2 (2.30): 3 (Endeavour) & 2 (Colibri)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (First Experience), 5 (Pick A Little) & 2 (Sarangoo)
Leg 4 (3.30): 1 (Masterson) & 4 (Buteo Bai)
Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Molten Lava) & 7 (Ocean Ready)
Leg 6 (4.30): 10 (The Greedy Boy), 3 (Let there Be Light) & 9 (Protest)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Four-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whilst securing six of the eight available toteplacepot positions thus far when represented. Three trainers are live to the stats (three more than last year!) and the pair that interest yours truly are ONE BIG SURPRISE (Richard Hughes) and INVADE (Stuart Williams). Richard has saddled more turf winners here at Brighton than at any other venue in the land (see stats below), whilst Stuart's ratio of 3/9 at the switchback track include all gold medallists being returned as market leaders of their respective events. William Haggas can walk on water right now where it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore his only runner on the card, namely SYMPOSIUM. William's Exceed And Excel raider is not the brightest light in the stable by any means, but the trainer could probably win your local donkey derby with a blind mule at this moment in time.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (8/11 & 6/4) winners.
2.30: ENDEAVOUR was giving experience away behind the gold/silver medallists at the first time of asking at Windsor and this looks a cast iron opportunity for Richard Hannon's Acclamation raider to score. Not too many yearlings rise in price these days before they hit the racecourse but Sean Levey's mount was one of them and connections look set to earn some of their money back in this grade/company. Others to consider include COLIBRI (Hugo Palmer has won with two of the three juveniles he has saddled here) and SWEET ZAIN who has a big race at Curragh on the radar towards the tail end of the season.
Favourite factor: All seven favourites have finished in the money thus far via six renewals, one market leader having been withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed. Four (8/15-5/4-11/8-2/1) favourites have obliged to date but note that market leaders at odds of 1/3 & 8/11 have been beaten from a win perspective thus far. Two gold medallists were returned at 40/1 and 25/1.
3.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals and Lee Carter is the only trainer to have smelt the coffee in recent days, having declared the lone vintage representative FIRST EXPERIENCE, who is (accordingly) the first name on my team sheet. Alternative options include PICK A LITTLE and SARANGOO in a race that should not prove difficult to win, despite the fact that there are five course winners in the line up. The handicapper might have caught up with Soaring Spirits for now. Where else can you read this 'informed nonsense'?
Favourite factor: Only two of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have reached the (exact science) frame to date (no winners).
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
2/5--Soaring Spirits (good to firm & good to soft)
1/3--Sarangoo (good to soft)
1/4--Wordismybond (good to firm)
3/13--Pick A Little (2 x good to firm + good)
1/1--With Approval (good)
3.30: All six winners carried a minimum weight of 8-13, as have 13 of the 16 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. Five of the seven declarations qualify for the overnight short list, the pick of which should include two runners ridden by the jockeys who are fighting out the Championship, namely Silverstre De Sousa (MASTERSON) and Jim Crowley (BUTEO BAI). For obvious reasons, neither horse should be beaten for want of a decent ride from the saddle.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame following six renewals, statistics which include one (9/4) winner. Search parties are still out looking for the beaten 4/7 favourite who missed out on a Placepot position twelve months ago.
4.00: All four winners have carried a minimum of nine stones at odds of 10/1-7/1-7/1-4/1. Seven of the nine entries qualify for serious attention and my trio against the field consists of MOLTEN LAVA (Paul Cole has won with five of his nine runners at the track this season - includes just one favourite), OCEAN READY (improving Sir Mark Prescott three-years are invariably a threat) and SECULAR SOCIETY (the only course & distance winner in the field).
Favourite factor: Only one of the four favourites has claimed a toteplacepot position to date, whilst we still await the first successful market leader following four contests.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/2--Lord Reason (good)
1/2--Secular Soceity (good to firm)
4.30: Horses carrying 8-13 or less have claimed all four renewals of the toteplacepot finale to date, statistics which bring in the likes of THE GREEDY BOY and PROTEST into the overnight mix. LET THERE BE LIGHT is the potential villain of the peace form my viewpoint, with Gay Kelleway having saddled three of her last four runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame in the toteplacepot finale via four renewals, whilst we still await the first successful market leader from a win perspective.
Record of course winners in the sixth contest:
1/3--Let There Be Light (good to firm)
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Monday:
3--Mick Channon (6/32 at Brighton this season - winners at 8/1-7/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-5/1)
3--Richard Hannon (6/26 - winners at 9/1-6/1-7/2-7/2-11/8*-4/11*)
3--Richard Hughes (5/17 - winners at 5/1-7/2-7/2-11/4*-9/4)
3--Gary Moore (11/2-7/2-7/2***-6/4*-6/5*)
2--Tony Carroll (7/39 - winners at 14/1-8/1-6/1-11/2-4/1-9/4*-2/1*)
2--Eve Johnson Houghton (3/12 - winners at 11/2-9/2-5/2*)
2--Gay Kelleway (2/12 - winners at 5/1 & 10/3)
2--David Simcock (1/5 - winner at 7/2)
2--Stuart Williams (3/9 - winners at 11/8*-5/4*-5/4*)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
59 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Perth: £31.00 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Windsor: £16.20 - 6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced
Brighton overview - 5 years record of represented trainers in the relevant event at 2.30:
0/4--Richard Hughes (Beepeecee)
2/3--Hugo Palmer (Colibri)
12/38--Richard Hannon (Endeavour)
2/11--Marcus Tregoning (Leonidas)
0/2--Simon Crisford (Poet's Charm)
1/7--Harry Dunlop (Rock On Dandy)
1/4--Charlie Fellowes (Sweet Zain)