PLUMPTON - NOVEMBER 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £43.90 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Monday's Placepot permutation at Plumpton:
Leg 1 (12.55): 9 (River Frost) & 7 (January Don)
Leg 2 (1.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 4 (Romain De Senam)
Leg 3 (2.00): 2 (Tambura), 4 (Bull And Bush) & 1 (Very Extravagant)
Leg 4 (2.30): 7 (Ding Ding), 2 (Createur) & 3 (Changing The Guard)
Leg 5 (3.00): 6 (Flugzeug), 2 (Yukon Delta) & 3 (Water Wagtail)
Leg 6 (3.30): 5 (If The Cap Fits) & 1 (Alaskan Poet)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Plumpton - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.55: Alan King took this opening event last year and the “master trainer” appears to have selected the right inmate (RIVER FROST) to double up in the contest. Boasting a 36% strike rate at the track during the last five years, Alan’s hurdlers have won nearly 70% of the relevant events on behalf of the stable. JANUARY DON might prove to be the pick of the opposition in a weak start to the Plumpton programme.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (11/4, 4/6 & 4/7) winners.
1.25: Had the ground has been much softer, I could have given a chance to Overtown Express but under better conditions, it’s is difficult to oppose TOP NOTCH though once again, Paul Nicholls (ROMAIN DE SENAM) has refused to bow down to one horse which people who pay money through the turnstiles will appreciate. That said, it would be disappointing in the extreme if TOP NOTCH failed to build on his Warwick success which was gained at the second time of asking over the bigger obstacles. ROMAIN DE SENAM might be slightly better suited to faster conditions whereby Paul is fully entitled to take on the favourite, especially in receipt of twelve pounds.
Favourite factor: Both of the long (1/5 & 1/6) odds on chances have prevailed thus far.
2.00: All four winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory which will aid and abet the chance of BULL AND BUSH from my viewpoint, though TAMBURA returns to defend her crown and runs here looking for a third consecutive success at the corresponding fixture. VERY EXTRAVANGANT is the alternative candidate to thrown into the mix with the others in the ‘superior’ handicap sector failing to light my blue touch paper on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful (11/4**, 9/4 & 15/8) favourites via four renewals.
Record of the course winners in the field:
2/5—Tambura (2 x soft)
1/4—Frank N Fair
1/5—Frank N Fair (good)
2.30: Sheena West has saddled nearly 40% of her 29 winners in the NH sector during the last five years at this venue and although her strike rate/level stake losses fail to set the pulse racing, her runners here can rarely be ignored. DING DING is the stable representative this time around and having run out a facile ten length winner at the last meeting, Marc Goldstein’s mount if the first name on the team sheet. CREATEUR and CHANGING THE GUARD might reward each way investors if they are looking for alternative options.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites has claimed a Placepot position to date without winning its respective event.
Record of course winners in the fourth race on the card:
1/1—Just When (soft)
1/5—Ding Ding (good)
3.00: Five of the seven winners carried a maximum weight of eleven stones, whereby triple course and distance winner FLUGZEUG cannot be dismissed, especially given the victories were gained under different types of ground as you can see below. I appreciate that more logical winners in the field include YUKON DELTA and WATER WAGTAIL, but since when did logic dictate results in our favourite sport?
Favourite factor: Six of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions via seven renewals thus far, statistics which include four (5/4--7/4—2/1--7/2) winners.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
2/7—Itoldyou (1 x soft)
1/1—Yukon Delta (good)
1/5—Leith Hill Legasi (soft)
3/15—Flugzeug (good to soft – good – good to firm)
3.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 5-2 via the seven renewals to date in a race restricted to just the two vintage representatives. Four-year-olds also hold a 13-6 lead in the toteplacepot division, despite the lesser ratio of 49% of the total number of runners. I fully expect the trend to be extended here with IF THE CAP FITS being the marginal call over ALASKAN POET, if only because of Harry Fry’s 5/9 ratio at Plumpton to date. Alan King’s raider was caught a little flat footed before staying on at Fontwell on debut and IF THE CAP FITS might hand out the same type of ‘attack’ in the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven favourites secured toteplacepot positions by claiming two gold medals alongside one of the silver variety.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Plumpton card on Monday – followed by their five year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Linda Jewell (3/22 – loss of 9 points)
3—Gary Moore (39/207 – loss of 34 points)
3—Danial Steele (6/36 – profit of 13 points)
2—Harry Fry (5/9 – Profit of 21 points)
2—Diana Grissell (0/6)
2—Grace Harris (0/2)
2—Alan King (16/45 – loss of 5 points)
2—Emma Lavelle (3/22 – loss of 9 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (5/47 – loss of 10 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (3/63 – loss of 49 points)
2—Sheena West (11/84 – loss of 14 points)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
49 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ludlow & Newcastle: These are new meetings