CHELMSFORD – APRIL 16 (Transferred from Newbury)
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend at Newbury:
2015: £45.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford:
Leg 1 (1.35): 7 (Tiercel) & 6 (Taqdeer)
Leg 2 (2.10): 5 (Sandro Boticelli), 3 (Dartmouth) & 6 (Sound Of Freedom)
Leg 3 (2.40): 5 (Marenko), 6 (Nassuivian Pearl) & 2 (Besharah)
Leg 4 (3.15): 4 (Tasleet), 2 (Log Out Island) & 3 (Palawan)
Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Power Game) & 3 (Azraff)
Leg 6 (4.25): 4 (Great Return) & 6 (Rasasee)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.35: Roger Varian has saddled two of the last seven winners and his Olden Tomes representative TIERCEL ran really well on soft ground at Sandown last year before contesting the Group 3 Autumn Stake at Newmarket to close out his juvenile year. John Gosden was quoted this time last year as saying that TAQDEER was "a lovely horse and a great mover" and I'm not surprised that John has left TAQDEER as his only raider from the five declarations at Newbury on Saturday. My original analysis indicated that I was far from sure that John would have run his 2000 Guineas entry on such bad ground. VICTORY BOND completes my trio against the other five contenders in this opening 'dead eight' event.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged (only two market leaders have scored during the last decade), though seven of the last eight jollies have claimed Placepot positions.
2.10 (John Porter Stakes): Four-year-olds have won six of the last twelve renewals whilst vintage representatives have ‘swept the board’ twice in the last eight years (first and third three years ago). I was impressed with SANDRO BOTICELLI at Doncaster and I fancy John Ryan's mount to get the better of fellow four-year-old SOUND OF FREEDOM. Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops up and down the country if you want to join in the plunge on Restorer, the four-year-old I have left out of the mix! I'm not sure that DARTMOUTH relished the all-weather surface at Kempton when closing out his season last year, though if it was more a case of going to the well once too often, Ryan Moore's mount should not be far away at the jamstick.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last 18 years, statistics which include just four successful market leaders.
2.40 ('Fred Darling'): Richard Hannon (Senior) won his third ‘Fred Darling’ three years ago in a career which spanned over forty years. Richard’s previous winner was Daunting Lady back in 1998. Richard 'junior’ has offered the green light to both MARENKO and LIGHT UP OUR WORLD, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. That all said, Ralph Beckett has his team in fine form and he has won the last three renewals of this 1000 Guineas trial when represented. Ralph has declared his Bahamian Bounty raider NASSUVIAN PEARL with each way claims in my book and given her official low (71) rating, Fran Berry's mount might offer value for money from a win perspective. BESHARAH obviously warrants respect, though the 6/4 quote in the trade press looks a tad skinny from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 19 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include five winners.
3.15 ('Greenham'): Having won four of the last eight and five of the last 14 renewals, ’Team Hannon’ have a much better record in the ’Greenham’ than is the case in the previous event on the card and in LOG OUT ISLAND and PALAWAN, the yard is well represented. Richard's latter named Mount Nelson raider is officially rated an inferior horse by as much as twelve pounds. I would be shocked if PALAWAN finished a dozen lengths behind his stable companion, especially with race fitness on his side, though not as much as would have been the case at Newbury on heavy ground. TASLEET could prove to be the class act in the line-up though, especially with William Haggas boasting a ratio of 5/16 here at Chelmsford this season.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 18 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven successful market leaders.
3.50 (Spring Cup): Four-year-olds rule the roost having won 12 contests during the last 18 years whilst claiming 36 toteplacepot positions. POWER GAME is the call over AZRAFF, with the first named Saeed Bin Suroor raider coming to the gig on a four timer. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to GABRIAL'S KAKA representing Richard Fahey who is the only trainer to have secured two victories in this race during the last decade. 'Kaka' won this race two years ago at Newbury.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions via 17 renewals during the last 18 years, statistics which include just two winners. Although market leaders have disappointed supporters, 13 of the last 17 winners have been returned at odds ranging between 9/2 and 12/1, which is a perfectly acceptable scenario given the competitive nature of this event.
Chelmsford record of course winners in the Spring Cup:
4.25: Saeed Bin Suroor boasts the best Chelmsford stats (6/11) of the represented trainers on Saturday and if Power Game scores in the Spring Cup earlier on the card, Saeed's New Approach newcomer GREAT RETURN could be all the rage in the toteplacepot finale. RASASEE and MOLTEN GOLD have not set the bar very high in terms of experience already ganied but even so, this pair might offer most resistance to GREAT RETURN at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Three of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), the three (9/4, 15/8 & 4/6) favourites having won their respective events. Before the 'drought' began however, three of the four favourites between 2004 and 2007 had prevailed.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Chelmsford card on Saturday:
6--Marco Botti (1/22 this season at Chelmsford)
5--Sir Michael Stoute (0/2)
4--William Haggas (5/16)
4--Richard Hannon (1/19)
2--Roger Charlton (0/3)
2--David Loughnane (--)
2--Saeed Bib Suroor (6/11)
+ 23 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
48 declared runners
Placepot dividends for last year's corresponding meetings:
Ayr: £751.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Bangor: £10,789.70 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)
Nottingham: £18.10 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)
Thirsk: £258.60 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wolverhampton: £182.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)