NEWBURY – FEBRUARY 10
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £30.10 (6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Whatswrongwithyou) & 8 (Rockpoint)
Leg 2 (1.50): 2 (Barters Hill) & 4 (Bastien)
Leg 3 (2.25): 3 (Saphir Du Rheu), 1 (Native River) & 2 (Cloudy Dream)
Leg 4 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Politologue)
Leg 5 (3.35): 16 (Lalor), 21 (Silver Streak), 20 (Irish Roe) & 14 (Lough Derg Spirit)
Leg 6 (4.10): 1 (Ibis Du Rheu), 5 (Duke Des Champs) & 7 (Reigning Supreme)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.15: It’s the changing of the (Newbury) guard on Saturday compared to twelve months ago when Nicky Henderson only held four entries on the day, having declared 12 (nearly 18% of the total number of declarations) this time around. Out of interest, Paul Nicholls ‘held court’ last year with eight intended runners but drops back to half a dozen on this occasion. Now that the housekeeping has been sorted, it’s worth noting that despite his dozen runners on the card, Nicky seemed intent on running WHATSWRONGWITHYOU in this opening event some time ago. Ok Corral franked the recent form of Nico’s mount yesterday at Kempton and there seems little (if no) reason to take on Nicky’s progressive seven-year-old this afternoon. I fancy ROCKPOINT to chase the favourite home, albeit at a respectable distance.
Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last 14 renewals was a 7/1 chance, whilst favourites have won five of the last eight contests. Ten of the last fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1.50: Seven-year-olds have secured seven of the last fourteen contests with BASTIEN being the lone vintage representative on this occasion. Alan King is back among the winners (under both codes) and with a half decent conditional jockey aboard (rider of five winners thus far), Alan’s three time winner should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest. To expect any of the other horses in the field to cope with BARTERS HILL if back to his best would be fanciful in the extreme and with money coming for the favourite on the exchanges overnight, it’s impossible to ignore his claims. The other potential winner in the line up is KING UTHER from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have claimed gold alongside one joint favourite during the last nineteen years. 13 of the 19 favourites have reached the frame.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/2—Barters Hill (2 x soft)
2.25: Paul Nicholls has won eight of the sixteen renewals of this event to date, and his winning representatives were all class acts. Denman, Kauto Star, See More Business, Shotgun Willy and Valley Henry are an impressive quintet to name but five, notwithstanding the 2013 gold medallist Silviniaco Conti. SAPHIR DU RHEU is the vintage representative this year and it’s worth looking at the weights because although this is not a handicap, the penalties incurred by NATIVE RIVER brings the pair exactly on the marks that would meet in such a contest. Seven-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, whilst eight-year-olds have won three times since Denman opened the recent scoring on behalf of the vintage back in 2008. Seven-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence but eight-year olds NATIVE RIVER and CLOUDY DREAM could narrow the recent margins. I will simply offer all three runners into the Placepot equation and hope that the best horse wins on the day. The best horse is Native River but do prices of 4/5 over 9/2 over Saphir Du Rheu under the terms and conditions accurately weight up their chances?
Favourite factor: 12 of the 16 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
3/4—Native River (2 x good to soft & soft)
3.00: Paul Nicholls has won six of the last thirteen renewals and the Ditcheat representative this time around is POLITIOLOGUE with seven-year-olds having won three of the last four renewals. That said, ALTIOR could still be viewed as the most underrated horse in training despite media attention, as Nicky Henderson’s High Chaparral gelding has won on his last eleven assignments, only having tasted defeat twice in his career following fourteen races. His quote of 8/13 (Bet365) would have ‘probability factor types’ reaching for the phone/mouse in all…..probability!
Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last eighteen renewals, whilst the biggest price returned about the winner was 5/1 during the study period. 16/19 market leaders reached the frame.
Record of the course winner in the ‘Game Spirit’:
3.35: Splash Of Ginge landed my nap (the only offered bet of the day) four years ago when scoring at 33/1 in the 2014 Betfair Hurdle, something I have been 'dining out on' for a long time now. I followed that up by naming the following 20/1 winner Violet Dancer as the first named runner mentioned in my analysis 12 months later. Proving that I am not swayed by prices either way, last year’s successful 3/1 market leader was the first name on my team sheet! 50 of the last 60 horses to have claimed Placepot positions in the Betfair Hurdle carried weights of less than 11-3 (including 13 of the last 15 relevant winners), whilst Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last eighteen gold medallists, the trainer not having been represented every year for good measure. Gary Moore has snared three of the last ten renewals (not represented twelve months ago), whilst five and six-year-olds have equally shared the last ten contests. Taking all the stats and facts into account my ‘short list’ comprises of LALOL, SILVER STREAK, IRISH ROE and LOUGH DERG SPIRIT. The quartet are just about listed in order of preference. If there is a dark horse at 33/1 in the field which could blow the weight trend apart, MOON RACER fits the bill.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won this famous event in recent years, whilst eleven of the last nineteen market leaders secured Placepot positions during the period, which is a very healthy return in such a competitive event.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Betfair Hurdle’:
3/3—High Bridge (2 x good to soft & soft)
2/2—Jenkins (good & sfot)
1/2—Pappy Kay (good to soft)
4.10: IBIS DU RHEU could outrun his 10/1 quote this morning from my viewpoint with DUKE DES CHAMPS and REIGNING SPUPREME looking to be the potential party poopers if the Paul Nicholls raider is to be denied. Either way, don’t expect that 10/1 quote to last too long this morning. The 5/1 trade press call about DUKE DES CHAMPS is also looking generous at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the frame behind the 5/1 winner which was the first horse mentioned in my analysis.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
12 runners—Nicky Henderson (9/32 +12) – 46/177 – slight profit
6—Paul Nicholls (1/17 – loss of 12) – 25/160 – loss of 31
4—Alan King (2-19 – loss of 12) – 20/159 – loss of 60
4—Ben Pauling (2/18 – loss of 8) – 9/40 – loss of 5
3—Philip Hobbs (3/11 +6) – 24/122 +60
3—Jamie Snowden (0/4) – 1/20 – loss of 15
2—Sue Gardner (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2
2—Tom George (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/69 – loss of 38
2—Chris Gordon (0/6) – 2/39 – loss of 26
2—Anthony Honeyball (1/5 – loss of 1) – 3/23 – loss of 6
2—David Pipe (3/9 +13) – 16/99 +1
2—Colin Tizzard (2/14 – loss of 4) – 12/81 – loss of 20
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
68 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Warwick: £23.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Lingfield: £3.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed
Wolverhampton: £87.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £122.50 - 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced