Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 11th November

DONCASTER - NOVEMBER 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £305.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (11.55): 7 (Yajooll), 9 (Azpetia) & 10 (Lady Willpower)

Leg 2 (12.25): 6 (The British Lion), 10 (Tallow) & 5 (Ornamental)

Leg 3 (1.00): 7 (Roaring Forties), 6 (Easy Victory), 18 (Hajjam) & 8 (Rebel Surge)

Leg 4 (1.35): 1 (Speculative Bid) & 11 (Mobsta)

Leg 5 (2.05): 9 (Sir Dancealot), 6 (Flying Pursuit) & 13 (Sainted)

Leg 6 (2.40): 8 (Vintage Folly) & 3 (Indulged)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

11.55: No less than 40 trainers have just one runner at the meeting, whilst 29 handlers have declared at least two horses at the last meeting of the turf season.  This opening event is as tough as it gets and you will be in a better position than yours truly later in the day, when you can assess which way the market is moving.  In the dead of night, I’m opting for YAJOOLL, AZPETIA and LADY WILLPOWER.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 28 favourites have prevailed, with 18 market leaders claiming toteplacepot positions in the process.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

10-9-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

10-8-12 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-9-7 (8 ran-heavy)

1-9 (7 ran-heavy)

9-8-1 (12 ran-soft)

6-2-13 (14 ran-soft)

10-14-8 (15 ran-soft)

14-7-12 (15 ran-good)

12-9-7 (15 ran-soft)

10-5-9-11 (16 ran-soft)

6-4-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

8-12-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

7-6-10 (14 ran-soft)

15-16-3 (15 ran-soft)

17-6-7 (15 ran-soft)

7-1-4 (9 ran-good to firm)

4-6-3 (10 ran-good to firm)

Two divisions were contested at Windsor in 2006

2-3-18 (18 ran-soft)

7-16-19 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-7-11 (14 ran-good)

6-2-4 (13 ran-heavy)

8-15-1 (17 ran-soft)

1-4-12 (21 ran-heavy)

 

12.25: The same comments (and stats) apply here in the second division of the opening event on the card.  My trio against the field consists of THE BRITISH LION (Mark Johnston’s only runner on the card), TALLOW and ORNAMENTAL.

Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats above apply here.

 

1.00: Four-year-olds carrying at least nine stones have won three of the last six renewals whilst the same weight trend has proved successful for the last seven contests.  ROARING FORTIES goes well in the ground and with ticks in both of the trend boxes, Rebecca Bastiman’s Invincible Spirit gelding is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include EASY VICTORY, HAJJAM and REBEL SURGE who is expected to outrun his huge price.

Favourite factor: Favourite punters would have won £65.00 to level (£10.00) stakes of late, even though only two market leaders have prevailed via the last nine contests.  Six of the last twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions.  Five of the last ten winners scored in double figures, ranging in prove between 10/1 and 50/1.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/8—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/4—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/12—Khelman (heavy)

 

1.35: The eight winners had carried a maximum weight of 9-1 before last year’s gold medallist was burdened with 9-5.  I am therefore defying the stats (a rare scenario) by opting for David Elsworth’s top weight SPECULATIVE BID under the steadier of 9-10.  Why?  David boasts a great record on Town Moor this season have saddled three of his five runners to winning effect and with SPECULATIVE BID at home under tough conditions, I expect the six-year-old to finish in the frame at the very least.  I have taken leave of my senses in this event as I am offering just one other horse on which to pin my hopes and dreams, namely MOBSTA from Mick Channon’s yard which has endured an erratic season by Mick’s high standards.  That said, Mick’s Bushranger representative is ‘thrown in’ here on the best of his form, especially with a half decent three pound claimer in the saddle.  His two wins on the course have also been gained under soft conditions which suggests that his 20/1 quote is interesting to say the least.

Favourite factor: Five of the eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two (6/1 & 4/1) favourites.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

5-6-2-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

7-15-4-10 (21 ran-heavy)

3-7-1 (14 ran-heavy)

12-8-18-14 (20 ran-soft)

2-5-10-11 (20 ran-good)

2-1-9-6 (21 ran-soft)

13-21-1-3 (21 ran-good to soft)

5-14-4-10 (20 ran-soft)

21-12-5-9 (21 ran-soft)

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—Speculative Bid (heavy)

2/4—Muntadab (good & soft)

1/1—Bravery (good to soft)

1/1—Hells Gate (good to firm)

1/3—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/5—Steel Train (good to firm)

1/11—Berniewhittle (good)

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2/6—Mobsta (2 x soft)

1/4—Right Touch (good to soft)

 

2.05: An argument could be made that this is as tough as the November Handicap which (yet again), does not (unfortunately) play any part in the toteplacepot scenario this year.  The second of the three runners from David Elsworth’s yard runs here in the shape of SIR DANCEALOT who finally came good last time out after some efforts which flattered to deceive.  The admirably consistent FLYING PURSUIT will not have any worries on account of the ground I’ll wager, whilst SAINTED also represents the four-year-old vintage which has prevailed in three of the last four years.  The reserve nomination is awarded to STAKE ACCLAIM.  For the record later on the card, David Elsworth’s third and final runner is Master The World who could outrun his 40/1 quote in the November Handicap.  His last win was gained under soft conditions off just a three pound lower mark whereby the price demands each way interest, albeit to minimum stakes.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have obliged during the last fourteen years, whilst aside from the relevant winners during the period, the last nine market leaders have finished out with the washing.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

7-6 (7 ran-good to firm)

1-9-8 (14 ran-heavy)

9-2-3 (11 ran-heavy)

5-10-18 (18 ran-soft)

12-7-11 (19 ran-good)

11-2-1 (16 ran-soft)

18-15-7 (17 ran-good to soft)

7-6-2 (12 ran-soft)

10-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

11-1-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-10-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

6-7-2 (13 ran-soft)

5-10-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

20-22-14 (21 ran-good)

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

1/3—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

1/3—Flying Pursuit (heavy)

1/3—Sir Dancealot (good to soft)

1/3—Stake Acclaim (soft)

1/1—Sainted (heavy)

 

3.00: Three and four-year-olds have dominated recently landing 13/14 renewals, with junior raiders leading 7-6 during the period.  I’m sticking with those trend selecting one from each vintage, with money having arrived for VINTAGE FOLLY and INDULGED overnight.  If you have selected less horses in your permutation in previous races than yours truly, TIME CHASER would be the obvious alternative option to consider.

Favourite factor: Two favourites have obliged during the study period whilst other gold medallists have been returned at odds of 33/1-25/1-14/1-12/1.  Eight of the last thirteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Indulged (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Saturday followed by this season’s stats at the course with profits/losses accrued to level stakes:

8 runners—Richard Fahey (4/96 – loss of 59 points)

6—Keith Dalgleish (2/17 +16)

5—Tim Easterby (1/58 – loss of 52 points)

4—Mick Easterby (1/19 +10)

3—David Elsworth (3/5 +2)

3—David Evans (1/16 – loss of 10 points)

3—William Haggas (6/20 – loss of 4 points)

3—Iain Jardine (0/5)

3—David O’Meara (1/44 – loss of 23 points)

3—Hughie Morrison (1/5 – loss of 1 point)

3—Marcus Tregoning (0/2)

2—Michael Appleby (3/23 +7)

2—Andrew Balding (0/9)

2—David Barron (4/27 +10)

2—Ralph Beckett (3/18 +12)

2—Michael Bell (0/11)

2—Marco Botti (2/14 – Slight profit)

2—Henry Candy (0/6)

2—Scott Dixon (0/22)

2—Michael Dods (0/22)

2—Jim Goldie (1/12 +5)

2—John Gosden (2/28 – loss of 22 points)

2—David C Grittiths (0/8)

2—Dean Ivory (1/8 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/4)

2—John Quinn (1/5 – loss of 2 points)

2—Kevin Ryan (1/30 – loss of 26 points)

2—Joseph Tuite (No previous runners at Doncaster this season)

2—Ian Williams (3/12 +6)

+ 40 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card – including Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon, by way of a change!

120 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Aintree: £346.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Kelso: £105.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wincanton: £70.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

 

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