HAYDOCK - AUGUST 12
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £383.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock:
Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (Zubayr), 6 (William Hunter), 10 (Capanova) & 12 (Shamrokh)
Leg 2 (2.30): 12 (Laraaib), 11 (Frankuus) & 10 (Euginio)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Just Hiss), 8 (Briyouni) & 3 (Calder Prince)
Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Sea Of Grace) & 7 (Mittens)
Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Fire Brigade) & 2 (Glorious Forever)
Leg 6 (4.35): 7 (Lathom), 6 (Russian Realm) & 2 (Toofi)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: The three horses for overnight money are ZUBAYR, WILLIAM HUNTER and SHAMROKH which will do for yours truly in a race which cuts me to the quick for reasons stated below. That said, I have just completed the course stats (see below)whereby I am adding CAPANOVOA into the mix. As stated before, if tracks will entertain races like this (I am not against amateur rider events), why don’t they leave them until the last race when friends and family of the connections have all evening to talk about their experiences without having to be rushed away because of the next race on the card. That would also take the race out of the Placepot equation which would surely please one and all!
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out of the frame last year. This looks another of the nonsensical 'Shergar Cup' style of race which I have evaded for so many years now. As stated before, I cannot hold with the hypocracy of the BHA who hold so dear to them the finer points of the rules of the sport and then entertain 'team games' at Ascot! Out of interest, you might note that every favourite at Ascot in 2015 finished out of the frame in the Placepot events. Only seven favourites have won at the Ascot meeting via 30 races in the last five years during which time, 25 different trainers have saddled winners. What chance of punters got? I’m willing to bet if other tracks sought to promote ‘team games’ at their meetings, the BHA would not allow them to do so. That is not the case at Ascot of course, where the ‘bowler hat’ brigade have an entirely different set of rules. Thanks for letting me get that off my chest!
Record of the course winners in the opening contest:
2/4—Intense Tango (good & good to soft)
1/2—Tapis Libre (good to firm)
4/6—Capanova (2 x good to firm & 2 x good to soft)
1/6—Lord Franklin (good)
2.30: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last eighteen renewals (one of only two relevant raiders won at 10/1 last year), yet junior raiders were conspicuous by their absence six years ago and only the runner up represented the vintage four years back. Four relevant entries have been made this time around thankfully, the pick of which appear to be LARAAIB, FRANKUUS and EUGINIO. Unbeaten LARAAIB could yet be anything as the Owen Burrows representative seeks a fourth straight success. Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to back the other junior raider, namely Larchmont Lad!
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have scored via nineteen renewals. 15 of the 21 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the second contest:
2/2--Frankuus (good to firm & soft)
1/1—Laraaib (good to firm)
3.00: Four-year-olds have won the last six (and seven of the last eight) renewals. It defied belief accordingly that just two relevant raiders lined up in 2015 though it made little difference as another 4/1 was added to the tally, followed by a 15/2 gold medallist which was short listed by yours truly. 44% of this year's field (4/9) is made up of four-year-olds though several others are ahead of the relevant quartet in the market. Listed in marginal order of preference, JUST HISS, BRIYOUNI and CALDER PRINCE should get us through to second half of our favourite bet, if we had made it through this tough card to race three.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five successful markets leaders, whilst a rogue 66/1 chance came to the aid of bookmakers back in 2009.
Record of course winners in the third race on the card:
2/4—Calder Prince (Good to firm & soft)
3.35: Three-year-olds have held the edge in this race to date, maintaining the tradition of successful junior raiders on this card down the years in general terms. Vintage representatives are 4/5 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted this time around, with SEA OF GRACE and MITTENS being the pick of the five relevant entries from my viewpoint. SEA OF GRACE would have to be the choice at the time of writing, though you might care to take a look at the record of Sir Michael Stoute (Mittens) at the foot of the column.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, the six winners being returned at 12/1-12/1-11/1--10/1--13/2--9/2 thus far. Two of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/2—Lincoln Rocks (good to firm)
4.05: You can ignore the 11/4 quote in the trade press regarding the chance of FIRE BRIGADE in this event, whereby potential investors might be fortunate to obtain 13/8 this morning. The difference in odds might not sound that great, though the differential in terms of percentages is the same as a horse being back down from 8/1 to 7/2. Michael Bell’s course and distance winner looks to have a second to none opportunity in this grade/company. GLORIOUS FOREVER is given another chance with the headgear put back on after some slight disappointing efforts of late.
Favourite factor: Both (2/1 & 4/6) market leaders have obliged to date.
Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:
1/2—Fire Brigade (good to firm)
2/6--Sidewinder (2 x good to firm)
1/4—Wigan Warrior (good)
4.35: The last ten winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, statistics which eliminate the bottom pair in the handicap. David O’Meara is finally piecing his season together after an appalling run of results by David’s high standards. The popular handler had reached a negative 1/74 ratio earlier in the week before saddling a pair of winners from five runners at one stage, whereby the chance of LATHOM is respected alongside other each way types such as RUSSIAN REALM and TOOFI.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade. Nine of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/7—Signore Piccolo (good)
1/2—Clear Spring (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two of more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by the starting prices of their winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years:
5 runners—Tom Dascombe (1 winner at 6/1)
5—David O’Meara (1 at 15/2)
4—Richard Fahey (1 at 13/2)
3—Sir Michael Stoute (5 at 4/1, 7/2, 7/2, 5/2* & 5/2*)
2—David C Griffiths
+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
74 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ascot: £81.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Ayr: £361.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Lingfield: £106.80 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Newmarket: £129.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Redcar: £577.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced