AINTREE – APRIL 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £145.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 54.7% units went through – 11/1- 5/1- 16/1 – 4/1*
Race 2: 56.6% of the remaining units when through – 3/1* - 14/1 – 7/2
Race 3: 22.1% of the remaining units went through – 4/1 & 6/1 (6/5)
Race 4: 41.6% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 5/1 – 9/2*
Race 5: 69.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 5/1 – 9/1
Race 6: 25.3% of the units secured the dividend – 14/1 – 16/1 – 25/1 – 8/1*
*It’s worth noting that despite three of the top ten horses in the betting (including the favourite) finished in the frame in a 40 strong field, only a quarter of the live Placepot units going into the Grand National survived.
*I secured a healthy return of £116.64 on Friday (80p of the £145.80 dividend) - offering confidence as we go into one of the biggest days on the racing calendar.
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Aintree:
Leg 1 (1.45): 3 (Dream Berry), 1 (Louis’ Vac Pounch) & 10 (Red Indian)
Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (On The Blind Side), 9 (Kildisart) & 6 (Chosen Path)
Leg 3 (3.00): 4 (Petit Mouchoir) & 2 (Diego Du Charmil)
Leg 4 (3.40): 7 (Thomas Patrick), 15 (Bells Of Ailsworth) & 4 (Rocklander)
Leg 5 (4.20): 6 (Sam Spinner) & 11 (Wholestone)
Leg 6 (5.15): 18 (Seeyouatmidnight), 37 (Milansbar), 13 (Tiger Roll) & 2 (Blaklion)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
1.45: Six-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, whilst six of the last seven eight gold medallists have been burdened with a minimum weight of eleven stones. Jonjo O'Neill has saddled three winners during the last twelve years and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of DREAM BERRY, LOUIS’ PAC and RED INDIAN. Jonjo O’Neill (DREAM BERRY) deserves a change of luck, the trainer having fancied Minella Rocco strongly before the rains came. Jonjo took the horse out of the big race yesterday and few people would deny the trainer a winner on the big day.
Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one co favourite.
Record of the three course winners in the opening event:
1/2—Louis’ Vac Pouch (soft)
1/1—Knight Of Noir (good)
2.25: Five-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only two big outsiders have been declared, one of which is a doubtful starter, with Bedrock having run on Friday. That leaves 25/1 chance CHOSEN PATH as the each way call, though course winner ON THE BLIND SIDE might take the beating. Another each way option is KILDISART who represents Ben Pauling, looking a tad overpriced at the time of writing at around the 16/1 mark from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Eight clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst fourteen of the nineteen jollies have secured Placepot positions. Going back further in time, 17/40 renewals to date have been won by favourites (42.5% strike rate).
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—On The Blind Side (good)
3.00: Six-year-old's have secured six of the last seven renewals in which they were represented, the relevant raiders in 2015 only being conspicuous by their absence. Upwards and onward in positive mode by confirming that two vintage representative take their chance, namely DIEGO DU CHARMIL and SHANTOU ROCK, the pair being listed in marginal order of preference. That said, PETIT MOUCHOIR should take plenty of beating, though connections would have been disappointed in the running of Balko Des Flos on Friday. Connections would not want much more rain for the favourite I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and one joint market leader have won since 1999, whilst 13 of the 19 jollies have claimed Placepot positions. The biggest priced winner during the previous 13 years was returned at 6/1 before the 28/1 gold medallist prevailed in 2013.
3.40: 15 of the last 16 winners carried weights of 11-3 or less, whilst eight-year-old's have won seven of the last seventeen contests. All three eight-year-olds fit the weight trend but trainers have failed to do their homework given just a trio of declarations. BELLS OF AILSWORTH is the pick from my viewpoint, with the Tim Vaughan raider have secured a medal of each colour from just four starts on soft ground. More logical winners include a worthy favourite in THOMAS PATRICK from the red hot Tom Lacey yard and (arguably) ROCKLANDER.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 22 favourites have finished in the frame during the last 18 years, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/2—On Tour (soft)
4.20: The potential market leaders both cope with this type of ground whereby I will take the quick (hopefully) safe route towards the main event/finale by naming SAM SPINNER and WHOLESTONE against their nine rivals, especially given the favourable trend for fancied horses for several years now. The ground is the worry for The Worlds End, whilst the jury must surely still be out regarding the participation of L’Ami Serge who won here on Thursday.
Favourite factor: 13 favourites have won during the last 23 years (56.5% strike rate, whilst market leaders have secured Placepot position in each of the last twelve years.
Record of the two course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—L’Ami Serge (soft)
1/1—The Worlds End (good)
5.15: Let’s get some of the Grand National facts and figures out of the way to start with. Nine and ten-year-olds have shared 14 of the last 22 renewals, though it's worth noting that eleven-year-olds come to the party having won four of the last seven contests. Nine-year-olds have won ten of the last 35 contests (28.6% strike rate). Only five favourites have won via the last 34 renewals. Irish trainers have won six of the last 19 contests. Only three grey horses have won the big race, the 2012 winner being the first for fifty one years. 26 female jockeys have participated in the big race with the 2012 third placed effort of Katie Walsh aboard Seabass the pick of the pilots to date: The record of horses ridden by female jockeys: one placed--nine unplaced--sixteen failed to complete the course though to be entirely fair, eleven of those runners started at odds ranging between 100/1 and 500/1. In contrast to previous results down the years, five of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones. This was my selection last year; As a winner of seven of his last nineteen races, One For Arthur (winner at 14/1) gets in off a low weight of 10-10 which defies belief in all honesty. Whatever the weather does between now and flag fall will not affect the selection, given that One For Arthur has won all on types of ground during an impressive career. The Grand National is famous for turning relatively ‘unknown’ jockeys into household names and Derek Fox can be the latest of them. The following runners should give us a good run for our collective monies this time around. For a horse carrying 10-11, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has plenty of class and his each way chance is there for all to see on the best of his form. Going back to the ‘Dipper’ steeplechase on New Year’s Day in 2016, BLAKLION was beaten fair and square by my main selection when conceding three pounds at Newcastle. BLAKLION is asked to give an additional nine pounds on this occasion and using that horse as a decent benchmark following last year’s fine effort, SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT has to be the call. This race has catapulted so many jockeys into the big time down the years and it could be the turn of Bryony Frost this time around aboard MILANSBAR, who can take advantage of conditions with moisture in the ground to run well at around the 25/1 mark. It’s worth noting that Milansbar has finished in the first three in 12/18 assignments on soft/heavy ground, statistics which include five victories. TIGER ROLL was a fine winner at the Cheltenham Festival last month over the specialist cross country fences, whereby this circuit could (again) bring out the best of the Gordon Elliot raider who looks set to reach the frame if enjoying a trouble free passage. The worry is that the soft/heavy ground might wear the little warrior down at the business end of proceedings. The Nigel Twiston-Davies raider BLAKLION ran well for us to finish fourth last year when listed as my third choice in the race. The experience of jumping these fences over this distance of ground is counteracted by the fact that the horse is asked to carry an additional eight pounds twelve months on. I fully expect Blaklion to reward each way investors, probably finding one or two too good for him from a win perspective. The reserve option on the eve of the big race is VIEUX LION ROUGE who has won five of his six races on heavy ground. On the flip side of the coin, this is his third start in the race having failed to finish in the frame to date, albeit those renewals were contested on faster ground.
Favourite factor: Two joint market leaders and one clear favourite have won the Grand National during the last thirteen years which is a great record in such a competitive event, bucking previous market leader trends. 11 of the 24 favourites during the last 15 years have secured Placepot positions.
Record of the three course winners in the Grand National:
1/4—Vieux Lion Touge (good to soft)
1/4—Gas Line Boy (heavy)
Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race at 6.15:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.