NEWMARKET - OCTOBER 14
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £84.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket:
Leg 1 (1.50): 6 (Rastrelli), 5 (Kew Gardens) & 4 (Graffiti Master)
Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Ghaiyyath) & 7 (Purser)
Leg 3 (3.00): 3 (Expert Eye) & 2 (Emaraaty)
Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Shrewd), 12 (London Pride), 32 (Withhold), 18 (Lagostivegas) & 34 (Aurora Gray)
Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Nobleman’s Nest), 4 (Prestbury Park) & 7 (Character Witness)
Leg 6 (4.50): 13 (Tirania) & 10 (Spiritual Lady)
Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: This Listed juvenile event was the Placepot finale last year and it looks just as tough to start off a wonderful card, especially with just a ‘short field’ of seven runners having been declared. The only course winner is RASTRELLI and though the ground will be riding faster on Saturday, Charlie Appleby’s February foal is worth his place in the field in search of his hat trick. There is every chance that KEW GARDENS could start off the day to winning effect for Aidan O’Brien, whilst there is no knowing how punch potential lies beneath the saddle regarding John Gosden’s Dubawi representative GRAFFITI MASTER. New readers might like to know that the term short field related to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last eleven contests, whilst every winner during the last twelve years scored at 9/1 or less.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/1—Rastrelli (good to soft)
2.25: Four renewals of the Autumn Stakes have passed since a favourite obliged as you can plainly see below though that said, the last six market leaders have all finished in the frame if you include the joint favourites in 2012. A few of the represented leading trainers have failed to win this Group 3 event despite 27 renewals, including Aidan O’Brien who appears to feel frustrated as he has only sent two outsiders over to contest the race this time around. I called the 12/1 winner Best Solution last year and trying to follow up that winner, I’ll go to the other end of the market with Charlie Appleby’s Dubawi colt GHAIYYATH who looks a really promising type judged on his victory at the second time of asking over course and distance. James Doyle’s mount had disappointed as a beaten 6/5 favourite on debut on Town Moor but Charlie’s late April foal made amends in grand style. PURSER met with traffic problems in the ‘Solario’ at Sandown or John Gosden’s Mizzen Mast coly might otherwise have been coming here on his fourth assignment defending an unbeaten run. If however, is the biggest word in racing.
Prices of win and placed horses in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes (exact science):
Record of the course winner in the Autumn Stakes:
1/1—Ghaiyyath (good to soft)
3.00: Aidan O'Brien's sends four representatives over to try and snare his fifth winner of the 'Dewhurst' during the last nine years. Even the maestro might have his work cut out however, with Sir Michael Stoute sounding bullish about the chance of EXPERT EYE, a scenario which Michael has not been prone to voice down the years, especially relating to his two-year-olds. Michael is not one to get too carried away with his representatives and it’s worth noting that Expert Eye’s only other entry at the time of writing is in the Irish 2000 guineas next year. Acclamation stock tend to run over a maximum of eight furlongs though that said, the sire has produced 19 runners to win over the Derby distance and beyond. This race should tell us everything we need to know about next year, proving that the January foal wins of course. SEAHENGE is my idea of Aidan’s best chance in the race, whilst EMARAATY is the pick of the remaining home contingent.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won seven of the last eleven renewals, whilst nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the last twelve years.
Record of the course winner in the Group 1 ‘Dewhurst’:
1/1—U S Navy Flag (good to soft)
3.40: Recent weight, starting price and Cesarewitch age trends have been shot to pieces during the last few years (I try and be as honest as possible) whereby I am less than confident about the outcome this time around. That said, ten of the last sixteen Placepot positions have been claimed by horses drawn 12 or higher, statistics which include 66/1 and 50/1 winners amongst their number. Out of interest, six of the last seven winners have carried a maximum weight of 8-11. I’m offering five horses against the field from a Placepot perspective, namely SHREWD, LONDON PRIDE, WITHHOLD, LAGOSTOVEGAS and AURORA GRAY. I doubt that I will become involved in trying to name the winner come sun up.
Prices of win and placed horses:
Record of the course winners in the Cesarewitch:
1/4—Watersmeet (good to firm)
1/1—Who Dares Wins (good)
2/3—Star Rider (good & soft)
4.15: Simon Crisford has posted 17 winners since the end of July via a decent strike but more importantly, the trainer has snared 73 points of level stake profit into the bargain. We will not get fat backing NOBLEMAN’S NEST however, albeit Simon has a fine chance of snaring the prize. Mark Johnston’s hat trick seeker PRESTBURY PARK (surely a horse destined to run under the other code at Cheltenham one day) looks a typically tough stable representative, whilst CHARACTER WITNESS completes my trio against the remaining six contenders.
Favourite factor: Although there has been a seven furlong Nursery on the card for a number of years, this race has been opened up to colts and geldings as well as fillies, whereby it is (quite correctly to be fair) deemed as a new race. I try and be as flexible as possible, even though that might not come across at times! However….
4.50: I’m trying to work out why (for the life of me) this Listed ‘Bodicea’ event is being classed as a new race. It’s still a Listed (Class 1) event raced over six furlongs for the fairer gender so what gives? For the record, I am keeping my stats intact whereby you can choose to follow suit and stay with the (albeit unofficial) history of the race or you can ignore the stats and facts, that is your prerogative. William Haggas saddled four consecutive winners of this event between 2007/10 and the trainer has offered the green light to TIRANIA on this occasion. Three-year-olds have won nine of the last twelve renewals for good measure, albeit that stats relates to 12/13 runners this time around. Others to consider include QUEEN KINDLY and (particularly) SPIRITUAL LADY with Ryan Moore booked to ride.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last six contests, whilst eight of the twelve market leaders during the last decade finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Spiritual Lady (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newmarket card on Saturday – followed in brackets by the number of winners they have saddled at H/Q on Cesarewitch day during the last five years:
7 runners—Mark Johnston (2)
7—Aidan O’Brien (3)
6—John Gosden (1)
3—Charlie Hills (2)
3—Alan King (1)
3—Hughie Morrison (1)
3—Sir Michael Stoute
2—Charlie Appleby (1)
2—Andrew Balding (1)
2—Peter Chapple-Hyam (1)
2—William Haggas (1)
2—Richard Hannon (1)
2—Brian Meehan (1)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
93 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £198.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Hexham: £30.60 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced
York: £57.90 – 8 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 3 unplaced
Kempton: This is a new fixture on the calendar